Your Retiremen Jan 2007 Newsletter

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Information about Your Retiremen Jan 2007 Newsletter

Published on January 7, 2008

Author: Irvette


Slide1:  Your Retirement Welcome to Your Retirement, our monthly web-newsletter with information that can help you with your retirement planning efforts. We provide straight-forward, easy to understand, unbiased and candid information. Feel free to use this information and to also pass it along to your friends and associates. You will find previous issues of our newsletter on our website. If you are interested in additional information that can help you, be sure to check out our web site; or contact Robert R. Julian, at ® RETIREMENT PLANNING CONSULTANTS A Guide To Your Retirement Planning - Volume IV - Number 1 HAVE A HAPPY, HEALTHFUL, PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR!!!!! Our Brand New 2007 Workshop: Planning - Saving – Investing For Retirement Larry Swedroe, in his book, The Only Guide To A Winning Investment Strategy You’ll Ever Need, poses an interesting question ---- “If you had a heart condition and your doctor offered you a choice between two drugs, an old drug with a 5 percent chance of success or a new drug with a 95 percent change of success, which would you choose.” Swedroe states that you can get the 95 percent solution for your investments and that this solution is the result of over fifty years of academic research , which culminated with the awarding of the Nobel Prize in economics. In This Issue: Social Security In 2007 Our Brand New 2007 Workshop: Planning - Saving – Investing For Retirement What You Should Know: Time Is On My Side Our Brand New 2007 Workshop: Planning - Saving – Investing For Retirement: Simple Portfolio #11 – The Coffeehouse Portfolio- A Retirement Diary: Younger Workers – Take Notice Building Your Nest Egg: Investing Too Much In Cash? Getting To The Nitty Gritty: The Real Rate of Return On Your Investments. How Can I: Evaluate Mutual Funds Sandy The Smart Saver: Too Much Invested In Company Stock? Sandy Cartoon Quick Take #1: Will I Have Enough Money? Quick Take #2: Save More In 2007 Stock Market – Wall Street --- Investment Humor Quotable Quotes Social Security In 2007 Social Security benefits will rise by 3.3% in 2007. The earnings limit will also go up. Seniors between the ages of 62 and 65 and ten months can earn $12,960. For each $2 earned above that, $1 of benefits is lost. Those who turn 65 and ten months in 2007 can earn $34,440 until they reach that age. For each $3 over that amount, benefits drop by $1. There is no earning cap for anyone over 65 years and 10 months. The Social Security wage base for taxation will rise by $3,300, to $97,500. That means that high-income workers will pay an extra $252. Slide2:  -2- This solution is based on a common sense approach to investing that every investor can understand. But in spite of the availability of the 95 percent solution, we are confronted with an enigma in that the majority of investors choose the five percent solution --- active portfolio management (actively managed mutual funds). Even though some say that index investors are just “average,” that is what they want to be. They know that while some actively managed funds have done better than “average,” most have done worst. So, that begs the question ---- If index funds serve up average returns, why have they been able to beat, over the long run, most actively managed funds that invest in similar securities? In our brand new workshop, we look at and discuss how the 95 percent solution can help the average investor. We look at 14 simple, lazy-low-maintenance portfolios that utilize index funds. What is the aim of this approach? It is to produce a portfolio of low-cost mutual funds investing in asset classes that are likely to outperform the S&P 500 Index and many, if not most actively managed mutual funds. On this page of our newsletter, you can take a look at our Simple Portfolio #11. “Index funds tend to outperform actively managed funds. Over a 10-year period through 10/2006, the average index fund returned an annualized 8.7% (after expenses) compared with 7.2% for an actively managed fund, according to investment-research firm Morningstar.” USA Today 11/10/2006 What You Should Know: “Time Is On My Side” Were the Rolling Stones thinking about investing when the told us “Time is on my side?” Were they emphasizing the importance of maintaining a long-term approach when so many of us investors are seduced by the urge to focus just on short-term results? Glen Davis, Senior V.P. & Chief Investment Strategist for the TD Banknorth Wealth Management Group, tells us that the short-term view seems to gain popularity when the market is volatile or not going up. Davis encourages investors to resist these temptations and focus on our long-term investment objectives and his analysis indicates that we can benefit from this view. Davis states that the probability of losing money declines for most asset classes as the holding period increases. The chart illustrates the relationship between time and the probability of losing money. The probability of losing money declines for most asset classes as the holding period increases. Since 1926, the U.S. stock market has posted an average annual return of 11%. During that time we've had major and minor depressions, inflation and deflation, wars both hot and cold, political turmoil, natural and man-made disasters, The Who, and an endless run of concerts by the Stones. The market managed to survive and thrive through all of that, even if it wasn't thriving every month of every year. Just remember that while your portfolio may be in the paper loss territory, life and economic growth goes on and your real life is unaffected in any way by paper losses and you have every reason to realistically expect the paper losses to turn into paper gains. Although some investors make money by jumping from one “hot” strategy to another, the odds are against you if you want to play the same game. The problem? One wrong move and your portfolio’s value could suffer irreversible damage. Just remember --- “Time is on my side.” I guess it’s time to fire up the CD player and give another listen to the Stones and see if I can gain any other insights into their strategies on investing. “During the last year as well as for the year before --- but heck, let’s just say for the whole screaming decade that’s now in your grave --- your average pro on Wall Street has failed to beat the indexed….No, your average Wall Street pro hasn’t beaten a dart tossed by a drunk in a bus depot since 1994 --- For five years running the pros have had their jockstraps yanked up to their earlobes by the Beardstown Ladies.” Forbes Magazine editorial in the early 2000’s Our Brand New 2007 Workshop: Planning - Saving – Investing For Retirement: Simple Portfolio #11 --- The Coffeehouse Portfolio In the March 2006 edition of this newsletter, we began our Simple Portfolio series with Simple Portfolio #1. In April, Portfolio #2; in May, Portfolio #3; in June, Portfolio #4; in July, Portfolio #5; in August, Portfolio #6; Slide3:  -3- in September, Portfolio #7; in October, Portfolio #8; in November, Portfolio #9; In December , Simple Portfolio #10. You can examine previous portfolios by visiting our web site and checking our previous newsletters Back in 1999 when everyone was betting the ranch on tech and dot-com, Bill Schultheis, a former Salomon Smith Barney broker and the author of The Coffeehouse Investor, launched his Coffeehouse Portfolio. Back then, some thought his portfolio was as boring as a cup of instant coffee on a street full of latte shops. Investors were riding the tech wave. Some expected returns to exceed 100 percent annually and everyone was going to take early retirement. During this period of “Irrational Exuberance,” brokers laughed at Bill’s “overly conservative” Coffeehouse Portfolio. Who would even think of placing 40% of one’s assets in low-return bond funds at the same time that tech stocks were doubling? But smiles turned to frowns during the bear years of 2000, 2001, and 2002. During this time, the Coffeehouse Portfolio beat the S&P 500 by roughly 15 percentage points each of the three bear years. At the same time, several hundred dot-coms filed for bankruptcy sending the Nasdaq down 80%. Take a look at how the super-simple seven-fund Coffeehouse Portfolio works: Asset allocation is just 40% in an intermediate bond index fund and 10% in each of six equity index funds. It's that simple. Here's what it looks like with seven no-load Vanguard index funds (6/30/2006) Talk to the people in your benefits – compensation – HR office about our workshop and how it can help you and your fellow employees. Ask them to get in touch with us so that we can bring this informative program to your work place early in this new year. We think you, the average investor, can gain a great deal from participating in this workshop. “A thing is worth only what someone else will pay for it.” Latin maxim A Retirement Diary: Younger Workers – Take Notice My mom didn’t use these exact words but she hammered home this message --- “You will have to accept greater responsibility for your own long-term financial security.” As I grew older, I gained a greater understanding of what she meant all those, many years ago. I hope that our younger workers today also understand Mom’s message. Over the past 20 - 25 years, the roles of providing for retirement income played by traditional pensions and 401(k) plans have seen a dramatic reversal. In 1983, most workers (56.4 percent) were covered by pension plans while only a small percentage (12.7 percent) was covered solely by a 401(k) plan. In fact, back then, the 401(k) plan was viewed mainly as a supplement to the traditional retirement plans funded solely by the employer. Back then, I and most workers assumed that our basic retirement income needs would be covered by the employer funded pension and Social Security — and when the 401(k) plan came along, we viewed it an optional method of building our nest egg. But today, as we have seen, the roles of pensions and 401(k) plans have reversed. Most workers (62.7 percent) are covered by 401(k) plans and only a small percentage (19.2 percent) is covered solely by a pension plan. Today, workers need to know that their personal savings in a 401(k) plan will be their main source of retirement income with the distributions from such plans providing for their retirement income needs. For many workers covered solely by 401(k) plans, they need to avoid making any mistakes that could imperil their financial security in retirement. But, when you look at the numbers, you will see that our younger workers are making mistakes --- they may not be on the correct path to financing their “own long-term financial security.” According to many surveys, younger workers are much less likely to participate in a 401 (k) plan than older workers. Only 62 percent of workers between the ages of 20 – 29 years participate in a 401(k) plan. In 2006, the maximum annual contribution a worker younger than 50 could make to a 401(k) plan account was $15,000. But less than 1 percent of workers earning between $20,000 and $60,000 (many of whom are younger workers) made the maximum contributions allowed. The average 401(k) plan contribution rate is six percent, which translates to an average annual contribution of $1,200 to $3,600. In addition to not participating and not contributing, many 401(k) plan participants failed to diversify. Slide4:  -4- As most of us investors know, cash should be for short-term needs and not a big part of our long-term investing strategy. But, as Nicole points out, “thanks to yields around 5 percent --- roughly the same as the 10-year treasury --- investors have been selling longer-term investments and pouring their dollars into high-yield savings accounts and money-market funds; $50 billion streamed into money-market funds in August alone, the largest monthly inflow in nearly five years.” Nicole states that “It’s understandable that investors would flock to a high-yielding, risk-free investment, but the instinct is dead wrong.” Of course, we investors understand that cash type accounts are risk-free in that we won’t lose our money --- the bank deposits are insured by Uncle Sam --- and also that only in rare cases have money-market funds lost investors’ principal. And as Nicole points out “If you have a stash that you don’t mind locking up for several months or a couple of years, now’s the time to take advantage of the high rates banks are offering on CD’s.” The problem is that when you place too much of your portfolio in cash, you will miss out on the gains that are taking place in other sectors of the market. As Nicole points out and we should all know, “Cash isn’t the best long-term investment; it hasn’t kept pace with inflation and lags far behind other asset classes.” If you look at the past ten years, you will find that the average taxable money-market fund has returned 3.4%, while the average intermediate-term bond fund returned 5.6% and the S&P 500 index returned 8.64%. (10/2006) As I thought about all of this money streaming into cash type investments, I thought about Dalbar, a Boston based financial services market-research firm, that produces The Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior report that examines the returns that investors actually realize. And I asked myself this question ---- if we know that cash-type – bond investments return 3 – 6% on an annual basis, why is all of this money going into cash-accounts. What are the facts? The Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior found that --- for the years 1985 through 2005 --- through a raging bull market (1990’s) and a snarling bear market, (2000 – 2002), the average equity fund investor produced a paltry annual return of only 3.9 percent - this in a period when the S&P 500 returned 11.9 percent. The average return barely kept up with the inflation rate (3.1 percent). A recent Fidelity Investments study of nine million 401(k) participants found that 16 percent of workers in their 20s have no money in stocks. Twenty-one percent held mostly all stocks and participants in plans of larger employers held over 33 percent of their accounts in company stock. Investing heavily in company stock is particularly troubling considering the lessons learned by the fall of Enron, WorldCom and others, when a good number of employees not only lost their jobs but all of their retirement savings. Another alarming piece of information is that one-third of the individuals in this age group invest too conservatively --- nearly 40 percent have all their assets in conservative investments, such as "stable-value" funds, which are little more than glorified money-market funds, or fixed-income funds. Over a long-term investment period, equity investments have produced higher returns than stable value investments. During a 10 year period (1995 – 2005), stable value funds returned an average of about 5% a year. Inflation during that period averaged about 3% a year --- a positive return of about 2% a year will not build much of a retirement nest egg that will carry you through 30 – 40 years of retirement. These younger employees are assuming less investment risk even though it may be argued that a typical worker in his or her 20s may have a longer time to retirement than a typical worker in his or her 30s or 40s, and thus may be able to assume more investment risk and volatility. This younger generation of workers has the most to gain and the most to lose when it comes to retirement savings. They have the longest period of time to benefit from the magic of compounded returns. But they are also the group most likely to suffer if Social Security is ever scaled back. And the chances of living off of a meaningful corporate pension 30 - 40 years from now are slim, to say the least (see paragraphs 3 & 4). The experts offer up three suggestions for younger workers. 1) Contribute enough to capture your employer’s matching contribution. 2) You have a long time to save --- workers in their 20s should have at least 70 percent of their account in stocks. Market volatility will always be with us. Over the long run, stocks have averaged an annual return of 10 – 11%. 3) Avoid the 401(k) default option if it is a money-market or stable-value fund. Over a long term investment period, their low returns will not finance your retirement (see paragraph #9). Building Your Nest Egg: Investing Too Much In Cash? In the November, 2006 issue of SmartMoney magazine, Nicole Bullock asked the question, “Who needs to be warned about investing too much in cash?” Apparently, a lot of investors. Slide5:  -5- Dalbar has studied this unfortunate phenomenon by looking at how much money goes into and out of mutual funds, and when the inflows and outflows occur. By doing this, the company can figure out what happened to the average dollars invested in mutual funds. The study shows that most equity mutual fund investors “try fruitlessly to buy low and sell high.”  “Motivated more by fear and greed than knowledge, these investors chase market returns to the detriment of their pocket books. Investors pour money into funds on market upswings and are quick to sell on downturns.” How does this measure out in real dollars?  If you had $10,000 in your 401(k) in 1985 and you earned the annual return of the S&P 500 index, your nest egg would total up to $119,379 at the end of 2004.  However, if you were an average investor, your nest egg would total up to $20,816 --- a loss of almost $100,000 ($98,563).  How's that for a missed opportunity? The Dalbar studies reveal that the behavior of the average investor is an obstacle to reaching the published performance of the financial markets in which they are invested.  The problem is that investors chase performance --- they buy funds --- cash type investments --- right after a rapid price appreciation. Unfortunately, this happens just before investment performance starts to decline. Prices fall soon and the investors quickly dump their holdings and start to search for the next hot fund or sector. This lack of discipline can cost investors more than three-quarters --- 77 percent --- of their potential gain. The Dalbar study shows that since 1984, equity mutual find shareholders have held their funds for just a little over two years and as a result have barely outpaced inflation. Sure, some investors may have been unhappy with the returns on their funds in the first six-months of 2006. But, they jumped out of funds just as the market was getting warm. During the past year, the S&P 500 Index gained 14.2%. Many investors want to beat the market. But, all too often, the market beats them. Why does this happen? Just plan terrible market timing. Too many investors think they know when to get in and when to get out. Mostly, they are wrong. Dalbar also found that investors who have the discipline to make a plan and stick with it in good times and bad times have a much higher probability of faring well.  If you don’t panic as the market goes down, and if you don’t go crazy as the market goes up, you have an excellent chance of achieving the returns of the market. For way too many investors, that is more easily said than done. Getting To The Nitty Gritty: The Real Rate Of Return On Your Investments A standard measure of determining how well your investments are performing is to look at your average rate of return. One of the standards that you hear or read about is that stocks on a long-term basis have returned 10 – 11% a year. However, in the long run, it is not the average rate of return that is important but the “real rate of return.” When investing, it is important to factor in the effect that taxes and inflation may have on your return. Simply put, the real rate of return is the difference between nominal return and rate of inflation. In working towards an investment objective — say, buying a house — the price target is not static but moving up because of inflation. As such, only the excess return over inflation will help an investor accumulate the wealth needed to fulfill his objective. The chart indicates that the real rate of return over the period from 1926-2004 averaged 3.04% per year. In a world without taxes, an investment had to return 3.04% compounded annually just to stay even with inflation. From 1926 to 1965 inflation averaged 1.56% per year. For the last twenty years it has averaged 3.00%. For the last 10 years 2.45% (through 2004). As an investor, you must look at your real rate of return. Unfortunately investors often look only at the nominal return and forget about their purchasing power altogether. The purpose of investing is really to do both: protect your principal and protect the purchasing power of your money. Protecting your money’s purchasing power is necessary because of inflation. The cost of goods and services is continually rising, which not only shrinks the value of your money, but in effect, reduces the amount of goods that you’re able to purchase. Investing effectively should enable you to reduce the negative effects of inflation and taxes on your money by producing investment results which over time will exceed both the inflation rate and your tax bracket rate. Slide6:  - 6 - “You’re not a wimp if you own bonds, not matter what your friends tell you. Some of my best friends are bondholders, and I can assure you that they’re wonderful people.” Anthony Callea, “Bulls Make Money, Bears Make Money, Pigs Get Slaughtered” How Can I: Evaluate Mutual Funds Looking to size up the funds in your portfolio? Try a fund evaluation tool like “Mutual Fund Compare,” a feature from Morningstar Inc. or the portfolio tracker from the fund data firm Lipper Inc. You can access them free of charge. They will allow you to do a side-by-side analysis of the funds you own and also some funds you are thinking of buying into. and Sandy The Smart Saver: Too Much Invested In Company Stock Hi, I’m Sandy The Smart Saver and I am here once again to give you some tips on Planning-Saving- Investing For Retirement and I am still taking a light- hearted approach and still trying to make the whole saving-investing for retirement process a “fun” event. And of course, I am still not your average squirrel. Last night, at the dinner table, Mom (Josephine) and I were having a conversation with my brother Mo about investing in company stock. The reason we were talking about that topic is that we were looking at Mo’s latest 401(k) statement from AcornSoft, the company that he works for. He has developed a potentially nice retirement nest egg but the problem is that about 80% of it is in AcornSoft stock. Mom asked Mo if he was concerned about having so much of his 401(k) filled with his employers stock. “Aren’t your worried that AcornSoft could become another Enron?” Mo replied, “Mom, what are you worried about. Since I started buying AcornSoft stock in my 401(k) 7 years ago, it has grown about 18% a year and besides, do you think that Bill Gates owns too much Microsoft or that Michael Dell owns too many shares of Dell or that the Walton family has too many shares of Wal-Mart?” Mom said , “Mo, maybe AcornSoft can build you a nice nest egg but it can also increase the amount of risk that you have in your total 401(k). Your portfolio and your job are both riding on the fortunes of a single company. AcornSoft may look very good at the moment, but that’s not a future guarantee or as you say ‘slam dunk.’ If it is the principal source for retirement income, steep price declines can delay or derail your plans to retire, or severely alter your expected retirement lifestyle.”  “But Mom,” Mo said, “AcornSoft matches our 401(k) contributions with company stock and everybody there keeps telling us how well the company is doing.” Mom said, “Mo, I’m not telling you that you shouldn’t own AcornsSoft stock but I will tell you that you should keep the rest of your portfolio in different industries or types of assets. Since AcornSoft is a small cap stock, you should consider putting the rest of your money in large cap, some international stocks and some bonds. You need to diversify your investments. Like Grandma Thelma used to say --- don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” “But Mom,” Mo said, “AcornSoft is kicking butt.” Mom replied, “I don’t care what they are kicking. Familiarity breeds comfort. You may think that AcornSoft shares are safer than maybe a diversified mutual fund but the danger in that thinking was made absolutely clear by those bankruptcies like Enron, WorldCom or Global Crossing and hundreds of other companies involving thousands of employees and millions of dollars. It not only wiped out their jobs but also what they had in their retirement plan.” Mo said, “But Mom, AcornSoft is not Enron or any of those other guys.” Mom countered --- “A study by Hewitt Associates found plan participants held an average of 26.5 percent company stock in 2005, with just over a quarter of the participants holding half or more of the total in their employers' shares. The study also found 28 percent of participants 60 or older held at least half their plan balances in company stock--at a time when experts strongly urge diversification against risk as workers approach retirement.” “O.K. Mom, you may be right.” Mo said. “I think I’ll drop my allocation to AcornSoft stock from 80 to 50 percent.” Jo closed by saying, “Mo, most experts say that it would be more reasonable to hold 5 percent to 10 percent in company stock, and spread the rest of the portfolio, and investment risk, across different asset classes. Look, Mo, Acornsoft may, as you say “kick butt” but just in case it doesn’t “kick butt”, just don’t expect me to keep your butt in this house during your retirement years.” Mom has a knack of getting right to the heart of the matter. Planning - Saving - Investing For Retirement Sandy Says: Too Much Invested in Company Stock? Slide7:  - 7 - Intermediate-term time horizon – 5 to 15 years: You are still able to invest for higher returns, but you may want to limit your overall risk. A major setback could affect the amount you'll have after retirement. Short-term time horizon – 5 years or less: You will probably want to limit your risk even more. If anything major happens to your nest egg at this point, the chances are slim that you'll be able to make it up with just a few years of investing to go. “At twenty years of age, the will reigns; at thirty the wit; at forty the judgment.” Benjamin Franklin 1706 – 1790 American printer, journalist, publisher, author, philanthropist, abolitionist, public servant. Sandy Cartoon: Wife Camille:  Sandy, why do you have such a great feeling about putting your money into a savings account at the bank? Sandy: Because the money in my account is insured by an agency of our federal government. Camille: That’s true Sandy – and I hate to tell you this but it’s the same federal government that is over $8 trillion in debt. Government spending for social Security and Medicare alone will increase from about 7% of the U.S. economy to almost 13% by 2030 and to more than 15% by 2050. Sandy: Camille that is reason for some concern “If human nature felt no temptation to take a chance, there might not be much investment merely as a result of cold calculation.” John Maynard Keynes 1883 – 1946, legendary English economist, Quick Take #1: Will I Have Enough Money? How much money will you need to finance your retirement? If you want to be on the safe side, plan on 100% of your pre-retirement income. You will find many calculators on brokerage firms’ web sites that will help you determine your magic number along with the amount of money you’ll need to save each year to reach your goal. The Kiplinger Web tool “Am I Saving Enough For Retirement?” can help --- go to, and then click on “Kiplinger Tools.” Quick Take #2: Save More In 2007 The best way to build your retirement nest egg is to save even more. And in 2007, thanks to contribution limit increases, you will be able to save even more on a tax-advantaged basis. The contribution limits to 401(k)s, 403(b)s, and 457s will rise to $15,500 in this new year. The contribution limits to Roth and Traditional IRs will remain the same --- $4,000. And there are no changes to the limits to the additional so-called “catch up” contributions that are available to workers 50 and older --- $5,000 for 401(k)s, 403(b)s and 457s; $2,500 for SIMPLE IRAs, $1,000 for Roth and traditional IRAs. Stock Market – Investment Humor Q. How do you know when you begin to think about your portfolio too much. A. You know you think about your portfolio too much when. --- you give your broker a gift on the fifth anniversary of the day you opened your brokerage account, but forget to give your wife anything on your wedding anniversary. Slide8:  - 8- For additional information or if you have any questions, contact, Robert R. Julian, Retirement Planning Consultants, 313 Blackstone Avenue, Ithaca, New York 14850, (607) 255-4405, email: Visit our website at Retirement Planning Consultants provides a number of resources designed to help individuals make informed decisions on planning – saving – investing for retirement. We offer unbiased and easy-to-understand information from an impartial outside source. We’ve been doing that for almost 30 years. Our “Planning – Saving – Investing For Retirement” workshops have helped thousands of individuals. This newsletter intends to present factual up-to-date, researched information on the topics presented. We cannot make any representation regarding the accuracy of the content or its applicability to your situation. Before any action is taken based upon this information, it is essential that you obtain competent, individual advice from an attorney, accountant, tax adviser or other professional adviser. Information throughout this newsletter, whether stock quotes, charts, articles, or any other statements regarding market or other financial information, is obtained from sources which we, and our suppliers believe reliable, but we do not warrant or guarantee the timeliness or accuracy of this information. No party assumes liability for any loss or damage resulting from errors or omissions based on or use of this material. Quotable Quotes Envy is the ulcer of the soul. Socrates, 469BC – 399 BC, Greek philosopher The articulation of portfolio targets constitutes the most powerful determinant of investment outcomes. Casual allocation decisions, honored in the breach and casually reversed, hold the potential to cause great harm to investor portfolios. Thoughtful policy targets, carefully implemented and steadfastly maintained, create the foundation for investment success. David F. Swenson, “Unconventional Success: A Fundamental Approach to Personal Investment There are many things we would throw away if we were not afraid that others might pick them up. Oscar Wilde, 1854 – 1900, Irish poet, novelist, dramatist On the basis of my experience, greater danger lurks in the temptation to chicken out when the going is rough and your precious wealth seems to be going down the tubes. Professor Jeremy Siegel, University of Pennsylvania, “ Stocks for the Long Run” To succeed in many things, or many times is difficult; for instance, to repeat the same throw ten thousand times with the dice would be impossible, whereas to make it once or twice is comparatively easy. Aristotle, 384 – 322 bc, “De Caelo” , Greek philosopher All investing literature has one thing in common: it refuses to admit that great investing, long-term or short- term, has much in common, not with science or mathematics, but with gambling! Jim Cramer, “Jim Cramer’s Real Money”

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