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Your patient flow as key for a reliable forecasting process with strategic value

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Information about Your patient flow as key for a reliable forecasting process with...
Marketing

Published on March 12, 2014

Author: IMAssociates

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Understanding your patient flow and translating this patient flow into a dynamic simulation model, will enable you to establish a very accurate forecasting model for your medicine. It will permit you to evaluate the impact of changes in the parameters of the patients flow and will generate a holistic insight about the key success factors to achieve your objective. As Healthcare expert, IM Associates supports pharmaceutical companies in elaborating these patient flow enabled forecasting models.
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Jurgen De Baerdemaeker – Director jdebaerdemaeker@im-associates.eu IM ASSOCIATES Added value of Patient flow enabled forecasting in healthcare

Why IM Associates? IM Associates assures effective decisions are taken in the complex healthcare environment. We build trust by assisting healthcare professionals in approaching their markets with continuous innovation in order to achieve optimal results. Our corporate values are Trust, Excellence, Impact, Inspiration and Persistence.

IM Associates service offering dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 3

Strategic value of forecasting Patient flow dynamic Added value of forecasting IM Associates’ stepwise approach

Misquote “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” - Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman, 1943 Some forecasts really got it wrong… dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 5

Support important decisions reg. business development: - Research; - Product acquisition; - Licensing,… In today’s pharma business, forecasting has never been so critical. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 6 Understand the strategic importance of the patient flow: - Diagnostic rate; - Compliance; - Treatment duration; - … Understand new markets / new indications with less data. Better target your resources & promotional investment: - FF size; - Investment in awareness, compliance, … Managing uncertainties in the future: - Outcomes of clinical studies; - Decisions on reimbursement; - Healthcare reform. Forecasting brings more than financial forecasts. It brings critical strategic value as it provides answers to following needs:

Forecasting: generating endless discussions or generating consensus? Whether the forecasting model is complex or simple, people often disagree on the model and/or the forecasts. A rational and transparent model helps achieving internal consensus around future business evolution. ‘We are endlessly arguing on assumptions and their impact on the outcomes. How can we speak the same language?’ ‘I’m not sure I’m using the right model for my forecast.’ dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 7 ‘Forecasting is time-consuming, especially when we have to change assumptions frequently.” ‘Is it possible to make forecasting when we are missing many data?’

Strategic value of forecasting Patient flow dynamic Added value of forecasting IM Associates’ stepwise approach

What is flow dynamic? dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 9 Flow dynamic is the analysis of in-flows and out-flows over time. This methodology uses concepts such as: Example • Initial stocks 10.000 cars • Time dimension hours • Rates of in-flows and out-flows 500 cars per hours • Duration of stay in a stock 2 hours Flow dynamics has many real-life applications: • Traffic management • Stock management • Supply planning (Energy industry) • Patient dynamic!

What is patient flow dynamic? dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 10 Diagnosed patients Flow dynamics provides a simple and flexible model to understand the patient journey and measures the number of patients: • at any moment of time • at any step of the flow Popu- lation Patients on product A Patients on product B New patients Incidence rate Diagnostic rate New patient share 1.000 / month 80% % Switch % drop-out % drop-out % Switch 6 months 4 months Patient flow (Simplified example)

In a standard patient flow approach, we first calculate the number of patients on treatment. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 11 Population Potential patients Patients on treatment Growth rate Epidemiology Symptomatic Diagnosed Access Drug-treated Patients on treatment

In a second step, market factors are integrated to calculate the number of patient on a specific product. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 12 Population Potential patients Patients on treatment Patients on product X Growth rate Epidemiology Symptomatic Diagnosed Access Drug-treated Competition Share Adoption Cannibalization Patients on treatment Patients on product

Eventually, patients are converted into sales (units and values). dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 13 Population Potential patients Patients on drug Patients on product X Volume forecast Sales forecast Growth rate Epidemiology Symptomatic Diagnosed Access Drug-treated Competition Share Adoption Cannibalization Compliance Persistence Packs Reimbursement Price Conversion Patients on treatment Patients on product

Some parameters are critical to ensure accurate forecasts. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 14 Population + population growth; Incidence Prevalence Switch rate (to other treatments/products) Treatment drop out Others… Parameters Important Simplicity leads to accuracy! We avoid using too many parameters and complex flows. Too complex flows are generating inaccurate results. Complex Simple

IM Associates uses industry standard simulation software: Powersim Starting from the flow-chart based patient flow, IM Associates translate the variables, flows, stocks, … into a simulation model in Powersim. Powersim is a best-in-class software product for dynamic simulation. IM Associates build the background model and provide the client with an executive viewer front-end. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 15

Connexion between Powersim and Excel offers flexibility and ease-of-use. In Excel, we have full flexibility to model and modify parameters. Results (forecasted sales) are also exported to Excel. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 16 bron: http://www.cbs.nl bron: http://http://www.nationaalkompas.nl bron: gipdatabank.nl 240.000 Spiriva gebruikers 2011, 75% COPD bron: http://www.cbs.nl bron: http://http://www.nationaalkompas.nl 16.786.279 1,70% 62,5% 0,283% LAMA users 178.354 Inhabitants NL % Prevalence COPD % LAMA usage % growth per year % incidence COPD per year 0,290% % population growth pm 0,0235% % incidence per month (pm) 0,0241% Import Export Parameters Forecasts

In Powersim, flows are modeled on a visual way. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 17

Strategic value of forecasting Patient flow dynamic Added value of forecasting IM Associates’ stepwise approach

IM Associates’ approach is transparent, flexible and powerful. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 19 Transparent The assumptions and their impact are easy to understand. Future sales are clearly split in existing/new/switched patients. Flexible Parameters (launch data; treatment duration; compliance; switch rate;…) are modifiable and the impact on outcomes is immediately simulated. Powerful Able to model simple or complex patient flows. Our approach Your benefits You save time, as complex patient journey can be easily modeled. You gain insight on the patient flow and the drivers influencing your sales (switch rate; compliance; duration of treatment;…). You reach internal alignment on forecasts by discussing clearly defined parameters. You manage future uncertainties by analyzing multiple scenarios and by refreshing the forecasting with the latest available data. You get reliable forecast. This helps you setting the right marketing investment and SMART targets for your sales teams.

FORECASTING Sales revenues (financials) Healthcare policy Sales force size Corporate direction (portfolio mgmt) Marketing programme Forecasting – as a planning tool – is performed for many purposes. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 20

Forecasting gives you more than sales data. It provides insights in the types of patients which generates your sales. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 21

You can get all forecasted data at any month in the future! With Powersim, we can get a picture of the stocks (number of patients in any step of the flow; sales;…) for any moment of time in the future. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 22

Strategic value of forecasting Patient flow dynamic Added value of forecasting IM Associates’ stepwise approach

STEP 1 Desk Research STEP 2 Market Research STEP 3 Preliminary Process Design STEP 4 Validation Workshop STEP 5 Modeling the Future The forecast logic is built using a step-wise project design. By using a stepwise approach, we deliver a customized forecast approach. Our excellence in traditional trend forecasting is catalyzed and extended with crucial insights in dynamic patient flows: • Not only do we identify all relevant drivers • The interrelations between the broad range of drivers are also identified • Next to this, we simulate the effect of all possible futures on commercial performance dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 24

At start, insights are gathered in desk and market research Step 1: desk research (secondary research) • Scan available market research studies • Search for existing information on the Web • Collection and consolidation of all data internally available : all departments (Medical; Business Intelligence; Marketing; Sales) should be involved! • Identify the gap for a complete picture dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 25 bron: http://www.cbs.nl bron: http://http://www.nationaalkompas.nl bron: gipdatabank.nl 240.000 Spiriva gebruikers 2011, 75% COPD bron: http://www.cbs.nl bron: http://http://www.nationaalkompas.nl 16.786.279 1,70% 62,5% 0,283% LAMA users 178.354 Inhabitants NL % Prevalence COPD % LAMA usage % growth per year % incidence COPD per year 0,290% % population growth pm 0,0235% % incidence per month (pm) 0,0241%

At start insights are gathered in desk and market research Step 2: market research – if needed (primary research) • Interview physicians in a stratified sample: • You diagnose a patient as having an allergic reaction to grass polls. • Which drugs do you prescribe? • Which process goes on in your mind in order to prescribe drug x? • Would you consider other treatments? • Why (won’t) you choose them? • … The buying process is utilized to map the physician behavior dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 26

The insights are translated into a flow model capturing the market dynamic Step 3: preliminary process design • High-level visualisation of the conclusions from the primary & secondary research are translated into a flow chart view. Step 4: validation workshop with the client • Validate our process design with client’s feedback • Agree on a final process design dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 27

In a workshop, the model logics and forecast scenarios are discussed, validated, adapted and endorsed. Step 6: validation workshop with the client • The set of most realistic forecast scenarios is chosen by the client. Based on this choice we determine the most probable forecast outcome. • Based on our tornado and waterfall diagrams, we also define the trigger points together with the client • These trigger or leverage points are the drivers on which they can work to increase their sales performance. dd/mm/yyyy © 2013 IM Associates: Patient Flow enabled Forecasting 28

Jurgen De Baerdemaeker Director www.im-associates.eu jdebaerdemaeker@im-associates.eu +32 16 22 47 43 IM Associates assures effective decisions are taken in the complex healthcare environment.

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