Published on February 20, 2014
Media technology – future prediction 2018 18.12.2013
Agenda 1. General 2. Megatrends 3. Technology trends • • • • • Media environment Delivery Reception Technology and production tools Production methods 4. Quiet signals Workgroup: Pasi Ekman, chair Antti Plathan Arto Markku Jari Ruotsalainen Johan Sundström Jouko Pesonen Juha Vesaoja Olli Sipilä Timo Salonen Tuomo Stoor Mirette Kangas Janne Holopainen Tuija Aalto
1. General “The whole thing goes: The future's not set. There's no fate but what we make for ourselves.“ - John Connor, Terminator 2
Predication of the future state of media • “Anyone who tells you they can predict the future state of media and its consumption patterns or business models isn’t being honest. No one knows where things are going and how they’ll play out. To succeed, we must accept this state of confusion and embrace the chaos. When there’s no obvious right answer, we’re forced to experiment, and examine new, sometimes uncomfortable, ideas. In media in 2013, invention, creativity and ingenuity are the currencies of success.” Justin Smith, the new CEO of Bloomberg Media Group • NYTimes: Bloomberg Media Recruits a New Chief From The Atlantic 28.7.2013
Focus on disruptive technologies ? ? >> relevance >> TV ? Radio ? ? ? ? ? ? ? R.I.P. ? ? ? >> development potential >> ?
Future prediction in time perspective Focus on solutions, that tie us up for a shorter time faster reaction Time Near future, possible to predict Alternative futures Decision making time frame Unexpected, irregular future Out of focus Based on: Timo Santalainen: Strateginen ajattelu
Small impact Large impact Small propability Meaningless noice Weak signals Large propablility Trends Megatrends 2. Megatrends
Megatrends Media business will change in combination of automation, digitalization, ubiquitous society and internationality Ubiquitous society Internationality Digitalization: Digitalization has already changed a lot of media business production, delivery and receiving. It creates a foundation of interconnected society, when any processes can be linked. We are moving from isolated systems to world where information is moving through standardized or mutually agreed interfaces from system to system. Ubiquitous society: Interconnected information technology is everywhere. Fingerprints of individuals or organizations acts, like buying, moving, using media and telecommunication are saved to service providers databases. Information analytics can help provides to create efficient and better services. Wearable technology enhance trend of creating and using media everywhere. Automation Digitalization Automation: Automation has expanded from industrial processes to every business, this will also revolutionize information and media business. Software will replace human work faster and faster. Internationality: Humans social, political, economical and cultural acts are exceeding borders of countries. Domestic media faces international competition in commercial and pay-TV business. Their personnel have Finnish language skills and on the other hand automation in translation is developing fast. Small language area is not protecting domestic business as it used to be.
Small impact Large impact Small propability Meaningless noice Weak signals Large propablility Trends Megatrends 3. Technology trends
Developing technology environment Delivery and reception UHDTV 4K, 8K HD-receiver 45% Tablets to almost everyone Smartphone to everyone Media environment Ubiquitous Media society overload Persons recognition HEVC Mobile internet coverage expanding LTE & multicasting TV Everywhere Internet with wire coverage reducing Adaptive Streaming Technology and production tools Speech recognition Virtual networks Content is Mobile first decentralized and centralized Light satellite technologies Prosumer tools Automated processes Cloud services in production Production methods Decentralized Automated production IP-delivery Fiber to home Public internet metadata Mobile systems in production Location production tools Connected Wearable Digitalization Sharing economy independet Car internet OTT & VOD Open Source your own Automation Bring production device / Augmented Croudsourcing Visualization Open archives Internationality Smart TV service reality Lean startup Cloud services Remote production GeoMedia Data- models Gamification Resolution Personalized Open data SD quality Big Data Multi & trans- journalism is enough independent Partners media media Croudfunding Multiscreen Mobile usage Media Light live Robotics Agile Interaktivity and -stream recommendation productions of media 2018 2013 2018
Dying technology environment 2025 2018 2013 2018 2025 Exclusive national Tape workflows Paper only Time and place Specialized media media environment media tied work expertices C-casette Apps Video rental business BetacamSP Physical media VHS Manual, simply work Jobs in media (CD, DVD) Tube screens are declining ADSL 3D TV Wired phones Basic phones Dedicated HW Weekly meetings Game Intranet Traditional broadcast Standard consoles Media environment STB equipment vendors Desktop PC office hours as we know it Standard tools for E-mail Terrestrial Mouse every journalist PAY-TV channels Camera memory Media Production cards SDI environment Current TV viewing methods Linear channel rating system based TV SD TV channels Facebook Wired LAN Data tapes Wired production tools Delivery and reception Technology and production tools
Media environment • Media usage shifts to mobile • • • • • Media sharing and recommendation • • • • • Personified media offering, based information collected from known consumers about their usage history and motives. Privacy is still big issue. New allocation of commercials is taking revenue from traditional broadcast TV Always available – time based catalog services and PVR • • • • Consumers are in charge and their behavior are breaking traditional delivery chains Pirating media is decreasing, but some still download their media illegally. Some media companies (i.e. Netflix) are using lists of top downloaded to make their decisions. Crowdsourcing and -funding: Media companies are using crowd to collect information or funding. Personified media • • Media usage shifts to tablets and smart phones Wearable internet, like smart watches, smart clothes, glasses. Use of geolocation in program making – “GeoMedia” Augmented reality: Connecting real and virtual objects interactively and real-time actual location Consumers are moving away from buying and owning media to paying to view media. Content are stored in cloud, not in personal devices It is not yet clear if network based Personal Video Recorders are legal or not Multitasking, multiscreen, multistream • • • Consumer is following multiple sources in multiple devices at the same time (Second screen) Interactivity: Consumers interactivity elements is mainstream in programs (Social TV) Gamification: Game type elements in programs to hook consumers in program series
Ecosystems: Tree main players? Linux / Android Apple Microsoft YouTube Amazon Netflix Other players: i.e. Facebook, HBO, CMore – FilmNet, Hulu, teevee.fi, Magine, Spotify, BBC iPlayer, Rakuten…
Delivery • Change of mobile internet • • • • Wireless networks are developing • • • • LTE networks will become common and will increase the speed. Multicasting in networks might enable delivery of linear AV programs, but they will not offer same QoS as cable connection. In VOD they will offer enough quality to most of the consumers. Network development will make possible of delivery of audio to moving consumers, but coverage of the networks will not be same as traditional FM-networks. Picture quality is developing • • • • Internet- and IP-services - linear and on-demand video services are developing and are challenging traditional cable and over the air delivery Cable to home – fast internet connections will become common, especially in crowded areas Area of availability of fixed cables to home will shrink from current 92% to 80% by year 2020, when teleoperators will not renew their copper cables. Current SD picture quality is enough for most of the consumers. How ever forerunners require better quality, specially in sports and in IP-delivery. Adaptive bit rate streaming will offer better viewing experience UltraHD TV - 4K/8K and better coding (HEVC) will pushed from technology vendors Mobility • Receiving of Television and other visual content will become available in every device and regardless of location (TV Everywhere)
Consumer’s gadgets 2018 • TV sets • • Full HD TV sets (DVB-T2/C/S) are in 45% of households. Most of the TV sets, smart TV’s have embedded browser or applications that support media services. • • • • • UltraHD TV (4K) sets will become available and those are marketed aggressively, but domestic content is very limited. 4K will come to homes via internet, not broadcast. • • • • Tablets are sold more than PC’s in Q4/2013 Growth will slow down after early stages, but tablet will be in 2018 as common as PC today - (in 89% house holds in 8/2013) Tablet will be common in interactive services as second screen and replacing 2nd TV set in homes Smart phones • • Sony PS4 will be the first player 4K in Finland at the end of 2013 Netflix will offer 4K in 2014 Tablets • • • Even when TV set can support IP services, max. half of the house holds connects it to internet – no motivation. Open HbbTV-standard has already some test cases in Finland, but probably will not be the main solution to use media services Separate streaming service gadgets are on the market and they are linked wit ecosystems (AppleTV, Google Chromecast, Sony GoogleTV, …) Mobile devices are linked to TV sets: AirPlay, Chromecast, WiFi Direct, … Smart phones will eventually replace traditional mobile phones, more than 90%: will be smart phones Mobile devices have become so powerful, all possible future usages are hard to imagine
Technology and production tools
Technology and production tools • Use of Cloud services and public internet will increase as the production tool vendors are launching their services. • • • Fast mobile internet and lightweight satellite technologies can change in many ways how production is done and increase the amount of live shows • • • • Journalists are no longer dependent fixed tool in the office System vendors are integrating mobile tools and cloud services IP-network based production tools, virtual networks (Software Defined Networks) and other new network technologies in broadcast area are making it possible to work with audio and video remotely A wide selection of open source software is available in broadcast domain, these are becoming a viable alternative to current expensive tools • • • First production tools are available as cloud services Media transfers from cloud Tools for editing, graphics, and setting up a radio station Needs new models for support Prosumer tools (i.e. cameras) are being used more commonly, replacing pro-level equipment
Technology and production tools • Services and tools targeted to consumer market are used in office and production • • • • Production systems are developing at a rapid pace • • • • • Enables a move away from the single vendor “one system fits for all” thinking Production environments can be made to fit to different requirements, no need for massive centralized systems Productions target mobile or internet users first • • • There is a trend towards decreasing the number of applications One user interface i.e. web browser Better and more standards based integration possibilities (this has traditionally been the weak point) System vendors can focus more i.e. quality of systems, workflows and user experiences Technology enables multiple production environments in big organizations - loosely connected to each other • • • ”Bring your own device or service” Consumer devices are integrated with cloud type services Also pro quality production devices can be owned by users Responsive design and touch screens form a common design standard, but media companies have to support multiple applications in multiple ecosystems simultaneously Services using geo location and social networks will become more common Big data & Open data enables new information sources and linking different kind of information • • • Amount of available data offers new opportunities, especially in user behavior area Subtitling services are eased with automation Speech recognition, etc.
Production methods • Production trends are moving to lighter methods: • • • • In bigger productions new methods emerge • • • • Remote productions / studios Automation and robotics Partnerships, networking Data journalism, data visualization and different virtual technologies makes it possible to present content in new ways • • • • • • It is possible to have dedicated systems for a certain product (production) Lighter and live programs will become more common (Live Events) More and more productions are transmedial Multimedia and transmedia productions benefit most of visualization Video, picture, sound and text are combined Interactive social media elements together with traditional programs Media companies must offer content also to second screen User generated content is added to the programs Open archives and automated metadata creation makes it possible to create new kinds of content
4. Quiet signals
Bubbling under – things to follow • Operators controls whole media chain • • Media device will recognize the viewer / user • • Pilots already made, i.e. VizRt, Skype is developing 3D videophone calls Guidance or consultation from distance • • • Like tax haven , country or area where are no regulation concerning rights. It will be crowded by companies that can offer media services very cheap 3D- or hologram video to distance • • For piloting, proof of concepts, TV set up planning Data haven • • Lots of new ways to consume media in public places 4D and 3D printing • • All devices ca use same signal in households, no need for antenna cables Piko-, Femto-networks or even transmitters and receivers integrated in standard light bulbs Intelligent paper & see through monitors • • Consumers will only have tablet and they can consume every media Different short range wireless networks & DVB-T IP • • • Recognize who is using, activity of user or recognition of gestures Tablet will become fully personal media device • • Some operator will have control of everything, from choosing the content made available to cable of last mile to home. i.e. Google Fiber in Kansas Users can publish their location with their problem, social network can help them from distance Service via videophone, where users can get help for example fixing a bike or baking a cake Movie theatres will become luxury and hi-res movies come to homes • Experts predict $150 future movie tickets & Sony Video Unlimited 4K & PRIMA Cinema
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