Published on September 22, 2015
1. Worlds Without Nuclear A systematic review of the literature exploring 100 per cent renewable electricity Ben Heard, Corey J.A. Bradshaw & Barry W. Brook* University of Adelaide, *University of Tasmania Delivered to World Nuclear Symposium September 10 2015
2. Statements of exclusion Naomi Klein (author) commenting on South Australian Nuclear Fuel Cycle Royal Commission: “What’s exciting about this renewables revolution spreading around the world, is that it shows us that we can power our economies without the enormous risk that we have come to accept,” she told media on Thursday. She said the latest research showed renewables could power 100 per cent of the world’s economies. “We can do it without those huge risks and costs associated with nuclear so why wouldn’t we?” she said. 4 September 2015 , http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/naomi-klein-says-building-new-nuclear-power- plants-doesnt-make-sense/story-fnjwvztl-1227512110264
3. 100 % renewable, as popularly conceived, does not exist Therefore, • “We can run on renewables” is hypothetical • Only potential evidence comes from literature • How strong is the evidence? • How can the literature be assessed?
4. The Studies Study Coverage Scenario Year Allen et al (2013) Britain 2030 Australian Energy Market Operator, Scenario 1 (2013) Australia (NEM- only) 2050 Australian Energy Market Operator, Scenario 2 (2013) Australia (NEM–only) 2050 Connolly et al (2011) Ireland 2007 Cosic, Krajacic & Duic (2012) Macedonia 2050 Elliston, Diesendorf and MacGill (2012) Australia (NEM-only) 2010 European Renewable Energy Council (2010) EU-27 2050 Fernandes & Ferreira (2014) Portugal 2020 Fthenakis, Vasilis Mason, James E. Zweibel, Ken (2009) USA 2050 (& 2100) Greenpeace (2012) Global 2050 Jacobsen and Delucchi (a) and (b) 2008 Global 2030 Jacobsen et al (2014) New York State 2030 Krajacic, Duic, da Graca Carvalho (2011) Portugal 2006 Lund & Mathiesen (2008) Denmark 2050 Mason, Page and Williamson (2010) and (2013) New Zealand 2005-2007 & 2005-2010 Miguel Esteban, Qi Zhang, Agya Utama (2012) Japan 2050 (& 2100) Price Waterhouse Coopers (2010) Europe and North Africa 2050 Sorenson (2009) Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany 2060 World Wildlife Fund (2010) Global 2050 Wright & Hearps (2011) Australia (total) 2020
5. The burden of evidence • Feasibility Criteria: 1. Demand scenario within mainstream forecasts 2. Simulated supply meeting demand 1. Hourly 2. Half-hourly 3. Five minute 4. Extreme events+margin 3. Identification of transmission requirements 4. Confirmation that ancillary services are provided
6. Assessing feasibility, not viability • No constraint applied on: – Cost – Speed of roll-out – Materials requirements – Social/democratic support – Planning concerns
7. Study Coverage Scenario Year Score Mason, Page and Williamson (2010) and (2013) New Zealand 2005-2007 & 2005-2010 4 Australian Energy Market Operator, Scenario 1 (2013) Australia (NEM- only) 2050 3.5 Australian Energy Market Operator, Scenario 2 (2013) Australia (NEM–only) 2050 3.5 Fthenakis, Vasilis Mason, James E. Zweibel, Ken (2009) USA 2050 2 Allen et al (2013) Britain 2030 2 Connolly et al (2010) Ireland 2007 2 Elliston, Diesendorf and MacGill (2012) Australia (NEM-only) 2010 2 Fernandes & Ferreira (2014) Portugal 2020 2 Krajacic, Duic, da Graca Carvalho (2011) Portugal 2006 2 Miguel Esteban, Qi Zhang, Agya Utama (2012) Japan 2050 2 Wright & Hearps (2011) Australia (total) 2020 1 Cosic, Krajacic & Duic (2011) Macedonia 2050 1 European Renewable Energy Council (2010) EU-27 2050 1 Jacobsen et al (2014) New York State 2030 1 Lund & Mathiesen (2008) Denmark 2050 1 Price Waterhouse Coopers (2009) Europe and North Africa 2050 1 Greenpeace 2012 Global 2050 0 World Wildlife Fund 2010 Global 2050 0 Jacobsen and Delucchi (a) and (b) 2008 Global 2030 0 Sorenson (2009) Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Germany 2060 0 Results
8. Global Demand Forecasts C o m p a ris o n o f s c e n e rio s fo r g lo b a l p rim a ry e n e rg y c o n s u m p tio n Y e a r GlobalPrimaryEnergyConsumption(EJyear -1) 1 9 9 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 3 0 2 0 4 0 2 0 5 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 E IA R e f (2 0 1 3 ) E IA H ig h G ro w th (2 0 1 3 ) E IA L o w G ro w th (2 0 1 3 ) E IA H ig h O il $ (2 0 1 3 ) E IA L o w O il $ (2 0 1 3 ) G re e n p e a c e [r]e v o lu tio n W W F s c e n a rio IP C C R C P 2 .6 IP C C R C P 4 .5 IP C C R C P 6 IP C C R C P 8 .5 IP C C S R E S A 1 F I IP C C S R E S A 1 B IP C C S R E S A 1 T IP C C S R E S A 1 2 IP C C S R E S B 1 IP C C S R E S B 2 E IA A c tu a l W E T O R e f (2 0 0 6 ) W E T O C a rb o n C o n s tra in t (2 0 0 6 ) W E T O H y d ro g e n E c o n o m y (2 0 0 6 ) IE A 2 0 1 2 N e w P o lic ie s IE A 2 0 1 2 C u rre n t P o lic ie s IE A 2 0 1 2 4 5 0 Other studies with modified demand TPEC from baseline year Wright & Hearps 2011 -58 % Allen et al 2013 -54 % Lund & Mathiesen 2008 -53 % Jacobsen and Delucchi (a) and (b) 2008 -8 % Cosic, Krajacic & Duic -32 %
9. Simulations Example of system simulation from Elliston et al 2011 No Simulation European Renewable Energy Council Jacobsen et al (2014) Price Waterhouse Coopers Greenpeace 2012 World Wildlife Fund 2010 Jacobsen and Delucchi (a) and (b) 2008 Sorenson Simulation fail in 2050 Fthenakis, Vasilis Mason, James E. Zweibel, Ken Miguel Esteban, Qi Zhang, Agya Utama
10. 100 % renewable consequences
11. 100 % renewable consequences “Fossil fuels have always required those sacrifice zones and these huge risks were often borne by certain groups of people, who were overwhelmingly the most vulnerable people in society… Nuclear carries those same risks and that same logic” Naomi Klein, 4 September 2014, http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/naomi-klein-says-building-new-nuclear- power-plants-doesnt-make-sense/story-fnjwvztl-1227512110264
12. Hydro: Essential to NZ Success “We show that a generation mix comprising 49% hydro, 23% wind, 13% geothermal, 14% pumped hydro energy storage peaking plant, and 1% biomass-fuelled generation on an installed capacity basis, was capable of ensuring security of supply…” Mason et al 2013
13. Hydro v Nuclear Facility Guaranteed Power (MW) Area (km2) Land Efficiency (MW km2 -1) Comparison Nearest major city Teles Pires 915 95.0 9.6 63 Brasillia (1,200 km) Attucha I&II 822 1.4 604 1 Buenos Aires (100 km) Sources: WNA (2015) Nuclear Power in Argentina; Neoenergia (retrieved 5 Sept 2015), Hidreletricia Teles Pires Matto Grosso
14. Amazonian tribes unite to demand Brazil stop hydroelectric dams The Guardian, May 1 2015 “The government builds dams without completing environmental studies, without seeking to understand the consequences of the destruction of nature in our lives” Joint Statement from Munduruku, Apiaká, Kayabi and Rikbaktsa tribes
15. Biomass: Essential in simulations P e rc e n ta g e c o n trib u tio n o f b io m a s s to e le c tric ity Percentage C o n n o lly e t a lC o s ic e t a l L u n d a n d M a th ie s e n A E M O E llis to n e t a l W W F K ra ja c ic e t a l E R E C G re e n p e a c e F e rn a n d e s & F e rrie ra W rig h t a n d H e a rp s J a c o b s e n & D e lu c c h i M a s o n e t a lA lle n e t a l 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 P e rc e n ta g e c o n trib u tio n o f b io m a s s to T P E S PercentageC o n n o lly e t a l L u n d a n d M a th ie s e n W W F E R E C C o s ic e t a l A lle n e t a lG re e n p e a c e 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0
16. Biomass: Consequences • “Denmark grows a lot of wheat, which can be replaced by other crops such as corn, leading to a much higher biomass production while still maintaining the same outputs for food.” Lund & Mathiesen • “This is also 59.6% of the potential biomass resource in Ireland, although this is a total potential and not a residual potential, i.e. it does not account for land that may be unavailable to avoid effecting food production or other industries” Connolly et al • “19.8 PJ of biomass may be too high for Macedonia and because of that additional energy efficiency measures are needed in order to decrease the biomass needs” Cosic et al • “The maximum land use for bioenergy cropping in the scenario is 250 Mha in 2050” WWF Energy Report
17. Conclusions • Exclusion of nuclear is high risk • Scant evidence for 100 % renewable feasibility • Literature affirms large dispatchable supply is indispensable • This must be hydro or biomass • Global decarbonisation requires a much faster-growing nuclear sector
18. Worlds WITH Nuclear …if the world built nuclear power at no more than the per capita rate of these exemplar nations during their national expansion…taking into account probable constraints and uncertainties … our modelling estimates that the global share of fossil-fuel-derived electricity could be replaced within 25–34 years. Qvist & Brook 2015 System Fuel Mix Example CO2 Emissions (g kWh-1) Hydro/nuclear Sweden 22 Nuclear/hydro/gas/wind Ontario 50 Nuclear dominant France 77 Hydro/wind/fossil New Zealand 177 Mixed fossil/nuclear/biomass/variable renewable Germany 468 Mixed fossil/nuclear/hydro/variable renewable USA 528 Fossil fuel dominant Australia 847
19. Thank you Ben Heard University of Adelaide, ThinkClimate Consulting, Decarbonise SA @BenThinkClimate www.decarbonisesa.com firstname.lastname@example.org
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