Wilson_Wk8 Market Analysis Presentation

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Published on August 15, 2018

Author: Swilson_Georgetown

Source: authorstream.com

Lakeforest case Study: Lakeforest case Study Sam Wilson MPRE-631-201 August 16, 2018 Overview: Overview The Lakeforest Mall site is in Gaithersburg, MD Outside the “Beltway” – 1-495 – in the DC metro area. This report will look at: The Site Market Areas and Demographics Various possible uses Recommend a use for the site Site: Site 85 acre site, comprised of 5 parcels. Poor transit connections About 3 miles from the Shady Grove Metro Stop Strong car connections Almost adjacent to I-270 3 miles north of 1-370 Site almost flat, only remnants of a stream Primary Market Area: Primary Market Area Secondary Market Area: Secondary Market Area Demographics: Demographics Lakeforest Mall PTA Sitewise Demographic Snapshot           Totals Percentages   Total Population 89,326     Age 14-21 5,961 6.67%   Age 21-65 55,516 62.15%   Age 65+ 9,046 10.13%   Female 45,220 50.62%   Male 44,106 49.38%           Total 25+ Population with Education 60,715     Less than High School 7,844 12.92%   High School, Less than Bachelors 26,809 44.16%   Bachelors, less than Masters 14,753 24.30%   Masters or higher 11,311 18.63%           Households 31,422     Family Households 21,231 67.57%   Non Family Households 10,191 32.43%           Averagine Income $ 96,202     Median Income $ 74,098     Households with Income $50,000 to $99,900 9,885 31.46%   Households with Income $100,000 to $199,900 9,058 28.83%   Households with Income $200,000+ 2,531 8.05%           Owner Occupied Homes 17,452 55.54%   Rented Homes 13,970 44.46%   Office Market: Office Market Lakeforest Mall PTA Existing Office Supply     Building Address Building Name Year Built or Renovated Parking Ratio Rentable Building Area Total Available Space (SF) Average Weighted Rent Percent Leased 100 Lakeforest Blvd Lakeside Plaza 1984 3.5 125,149     100 18310 Montgomery Village Ave Montvale Center 1987 3.3 123,689 47,583 23 61.53 400 Professional Dr Crown Point Corporate Center 2000 4 129,030 116,333 23 36.62 6 Montgomery Village Ave Montgomery Executive Center 2003 3.7 119,681 42,944 24.5 66.31 655 Watkins Mill Rd Monument Corporate Center I 2007 3.5 200,000     100 800 N Frederick Rd North Frederick 800 1986 3 393,000     100 700 N Frederick Ave Lockheed Martin Bldg 1 1966 2.91 274,450     100 700 N Frederick Ave Lockheed Martin Bldg 2 1966 3.25 246,400     100               Vacancy   Averages     201,425 68,953 23.5 12.84%   Minus Lockheed Martin     181,758     18.97%   Totals     1,611,399         Minus Lockheed Martin     1,090,549       The local office market is ok Close to full occupancy Better than greater Montgomery County market Rents slightly lower than Montgomery County Minimal Absorption No demand for large office buildings New entrant could capture professional office space market Residential Market: Residential Market Lakeforest Mall PTA Competitive Multi-family Properties     Property Address Type Total Units Studio 1 BR 2BR 3BR Average Price Year Built Comments Hunt Club Apartments 404 Cristopher Ave Gaithersburg, MD Garden 336 N/A 165 171 N/A $1.78 1986 Good amenities, updated units The Verandahs 9308 Willow Creek Dr Montgomery Village, MD Garden 186 N/A 104 56 26 $1.43 1989 Good amenities, slightly dated units Spring Ridge 374 N Summit Ave Gaithersburg, MD Garden 204 N/A 84 96 24 $1.59 1972 Fewer amenities units, shared laundry. Dated style Watkins Station 99 Watins Mill Rd Gaithersburg, MD Garden 210 N/A 75 135 N/A $1.35 1976 Good amenities, slightly dated units, very dated style to complex Montgomery Club Vi 204 Water St Gaithersburg, MD Garden 156 N/A 59 96 N/A $1.34 1982 low amenities, poor condition, generally subsidized housing Montgomery Club 17101 Queen Victoria Ct Gaithersburg, MD Townhome Garden 110 14 16 80 N/A $1.56 1986 Limited amenities dated unit style, good layouts. Archstone at Saybrooke 100 Old Macdonald Rd Gaithersburg, MD Garden 252 N/A 72 140 40 $1.55 1990 Good amenities, updated units Towne Crest Apartments 17500 Towne Crest Dr Gaithersburg, MD Townhome Garden 107 N/A 27 50 30 $1.66 1973 Limited amenities dated unit style Spectrum Majestic 116 Paramount Park Dr Gaithersburg, MD Mid-Rise 243         $1.74 2016 Full amenities, new, very nice Spectrum Paramount 230 Spectrum Ave Fredrick, MD Mid-Rise 109         $1.88 2014 Full amenities, new, very nice ReSidential Market: ReSidential Market Population is growing around 6% per year Few new building be built and most existing units date from the ‘70s and ‘80s Most units 1 BR or 2BR, with some 3BR units as well. New entrant could capture a healthy amount of the market Retail market: Retail market Strong household spending on retail 65.7% of income vs 44% for national average Spending mostly on F&B and NG&S Strong spending on professional services – supports building professional office space 31 other sites in trade area – 5.1M SF of GLA Occupancy rate – 95% 919k SF of space being added – 17% increase Retail space is an amenity to the office and residential in the area. Hotel & Industrial market: Hotel & Industrial market Hotel Approximately 6 other hotels in the area. Corporate use from other office could help drive demand Close proximity to major highway and interchange should drive some demand Industrial Heavy traffic in area would make road connections challenging No rail connections on site Not remote enough for server farms Recommendation: Recommendation Mixed-use Project 40-50 Professional office spaces 400 residential units Mix of 1-3 bedroom units, with some townhomes 210,000 SF of retail space ~ 40,000 SF should go to an anchor grocery Balance heavy on restaurants Mid-market hotel

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