Why include opportunity in the risk process?, presentation, David Hillson, London, 05 July 2016

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Information about Why include opportunity in the risk process?, presentation, David...

Published on July 5, 2016

Author: assocpm

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1. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 1 Why include opportunity in the risk process? Dr David Hillson The Risk Doctor, HonFAPM LONDON TUESDAY, 5 JULY 2016

2. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 2 Key questions Do opportunities exist? If so, what are they? (and what aren’t they?) Can opportunities be managed? Simple six-step process Do opportunities matter? Problems from not managing opportunities Benefits from proactive management of opportunities

3. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 3 Uncertainties are everywhere … Some would be bad, unwelcome, unhelpful if they happened Others would be good, welcome, helpful if they happened

4. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 4 Which uncertainties matter? Uncertainties that help as well as uncertainties that harm Both matter Both need managing proactively …not only preventing potential problems “Stop things going wrong” …but also finding potential benefits “Help things go right”

5. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 5 Defining opportunity Two key dimensions 1. Uncertainty probability of occurrence 2. Impact effect on objectives (positive) Opportunity is “uncertainty that matters”

6. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 6 Beware fakes Opportunity is uncertainty (may or may not happen) that matters (would affect achievement of objectives) Opportunity is not A benefit “Opportunity to succeed” A response “Opportunity to act” Scope creep “Opportunity to do something else”

7. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 7 Can opportunities be managed? Forward-looking radar  Early-warning Enables proactive prior positioning

8. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 8 Managing opportunity: Simple questions What are we trying to achieve? What might help us to achieve it? Which of those are most important? What could we do about them? (Do it!) Did it work? What’s changed?

9. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 9 Monitor and review Define objectives Identify uncertainties that matter Assess & prioritise Plan responses Implement responses From questions to process WHAT ARE WE TRYING TO ACHIEVE? WHICH ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT? WHAT MIGHT HELP US TO ACHIEVE IT? WHAT COULD WE DO ABOUT THEM? DO IT !! DID IT WORK? WHAT’S CHANGED?

10. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 10 Why bother? (1) What if you didn’t? O B J E C T I V E PERFORMANCESHORTFALLIF UNTREATED RESIDUAL SHORTFALL AFTER TREATMENT PARTIAL RECOVERY FILL THE GAP!

11. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 11 Why bother? (2) Increased team motivation Encourages innovation & creativity Fewer missed opportunities More benefits captured Improved success rate What if you did?

12. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 12 FINAL THOUGHTS

13. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 13 Opportunity facts Opportunity is uncertainty that matters Opportunity can be managed with a simple process Managing opportunity brings benefits WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH RISK?

14. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 14 Opportunity and risk (1) Opportunity is “uncertainty that matters” SOURCE “UNCERTAINTY …” “… THAT MATTERS” ISO 31000 (2009) “Effect of uncertainty …” “… on objectives.” PMI PMBoK® Guide (2013) “An uncertain event or condition …” “… that if it occurs has a positive or negative effect on a project’s objectives.” APM Body of Knowledge (2012) “An uncertain event or set of circumstances …” “… that, should it or they occur, would have an effect on achievement of one or more project objectives.” Management of Risk [M_o_R] (2010) “An uncertain event or set of events …” “… that should it occur will have an effect on the achievement of objectives.” Institution of Civil Engineers RAMP (2014) “A possible occurrence …” “… which could affect (positively or negatively) the achievement of the objectives for the investment.”

15. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 15 Opportunity and risk (2) Opportunity can be managed in a simple process Monitor and review Define objectives Identify uncertainties that matter Assess & prioritise Plan responses Implement responses

16. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 16 Opportunity and risk (3) Managing opportunity brings benefits Not identifying and capturing opportunities means GUARANTEED FAILURE Finding and managing opportunities leads to INCREASED SUCCESS RATE WHY WOULDN’T YOU??

17. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 17 Summary Opportunities exist and they matter An opportunity is the same as a threat (apart from sign of impact) Opportunities and threats can be managed together in an integrated risk process Do it because it works !

18. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 18 Watch again on RiskDoctorVideo… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEuXOtY8k9s

19. © 2010-16 The Risk Doctor Partnership, Slide 19 For further information Dr David Hillson The Risk Doctor Partnership +44(0)7717.665222 david@risk-doctor.com www.risk-doctor.com YouTube.com/RiskDoctorVideo

20. This presentation was delivered at an APM event To find out more about upcoming events please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events

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