Why do some still believe discredited knowledge?

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Information about Why do some still believe discredited knowledge?

Published on July 2, 2016

Author: paulhcarr

Source: slideshare.net

1. Why do some still believe discredited knowledge? Paul H. Carr www.MirrorOfNature.org paulcarr@alum.mit.edu

2. Why do some people still believe in knowledge that is contrary to empirical data ? (1) TheFlatEarthSociety.org claim. (2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off. - Data shows it has: a. increased income inequality & b. increased our national debt. (3) Humans are not accelerating global warming, which is contrary to recent data. Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know.

3. Genesis 1:7 (CEB) states, “And God made the dome and Genesis 1:7 (CEB): “And God made the dome and separated the waters which were under the firmament from the waters which were above.” 600 BCE

4. Experimental confirmation of TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim. A Ph.D. scientist tried to measure the curvature of a lake. Since he could not measure any, he concluded that the earth is flat.

5. The Blind men examining the elephant illustrates limited worldviews.

6. SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE •Breadth of phenomena •Ability to predict something new •Empirical measurents can verify or falsify.

7. PTOLEMY 150 A. D. COPERNICUS 1543 Ptolemy’s model of planets rotating about the earth made accurate predictions. Copernicus’ heliocentric cosmology was not more accurate but it eliminated the complex epicycles From The Bones of Copernicus by Dennis Danielson, “American Scientist,” Jan-Feb 2009

8. 1920. Harlow Shapley discovered our place in the Milky Way Galaxy

9. Why do some people still believe in knowledge that is contrary to empirical data ? (1)TheFlatEarthSociety.org claim. (2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off. - Data shows it has: a. increased income inequality & b. increased our national debt. (3) Humans are not accelerating global warming, which is contrary to recent data. Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair 1934

10. Title of the presentationInequality of capital Thomas Piketty, Professor of Economics, Paris School of Economics 19 December 2014 www.slideshare.net

11. 11 Data from Capital in the 21st century (Harvard University Press, March 2014) This book studies the global dynamics of income and wealth distribution since 18c in 20+ countries; I use historical data collected over the past 15 years with Atkinson, Saez, Postel-Vinay, Rosenthal, Alvaredo, Zucman, and 30+ others; I try to shift attention from rising income inequality to rising wealth inequality •The book includes four parts: Part 1. Income and capital Part 2. The dynamics of the capital/income ratio Part 3. The structure of inequalities Part 4. Regulating capital in the 21st century •In this presentation I will present some results from Parts 2 & 3, focusing upon the long-run evolution of capital/income ratios and wealth concentration (all graphs and series are available on line: see http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c)

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14. 14 Conclusions • The history of income and wealth inequality is always political, chaotic and unpredictable; it involves national identities and sharp reversals; nobody can predict the reversals of the future • The ideal solution: progressive wealth tax at the global scale, based upon automatic exchange of bank information • Other solutions involve authoritarian political & capital controls (China, Russia..), or perpetual population growth (US), or inflation, or some mixture of all.

15. A RISING TIDE FLOATS ALL BOATS ? The objective of the tax cuts from 70% in 1980 to 28% in 1988 was to stimulate the economy, ie increase GDP. The was expected to result in an increase in the tax revenue to the government. 1. Increased income inequality. 2. No GDP increase 3. Increased our national debt.

16. After the top tax rate dropped from 70% in 1980 to 28% in 1988, GDP growth decreased from 3.5%/year in 1980 to 2% at present. Tax Cut

17. Reagan Tax Cuts 70% to 28% OUR NATIONAL DEBT INCREASED IN 1980 WWII Ends Won Cold War Recession from deregulation of Banks

18. WWII POSTER How we defeated Hitler Germany and Japan’s Rising Sun (1945). Paid off WWII, Korean and Vietnam Wars debt (1980), Landed Man on the Moon (‘69) Patriotism against enemies is the Social Capital that bound us together.

19. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” ICandidate for Governor: And How I Got Licked by Upton Sinclair 1934

20. Why do some people still believe in knowledge that is contrary to empirical data ? (1)TheFlatEarthSociety.org claim. (2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off. - Data shows it has: a. increased income inequality & b. increased our national debt. (3) Humans are not accelerating global warming, which is contrary to recent data. Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair 1934

21. HUMANS INFLUENCE OUR CLIMATE Our CO2 emissions are happening 300 times faster than natural effects. - Paul H. Carr, BS, MS, MIT; PhD, Brandeis. IEEE Life Fellow AF Research Laboratory Emeritus, www.MirrorOfNature.org 24

22. The EXPLODING POPULATION OF 7 B IS INFLUENCING OUR CLIMATE BY BURNING FOSSIL FUELS THAT EMIT GREENHOUSE GASES: CARBON DIOXIDE, CO2. 1. THE HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING Emissions of the greenhouse gas, CO2, are increasing at a rate of 2.5 ppm per year. 2. CONTRAST THIS WITH SLOWER NATURAL PROCESSES 18K – 10K years ago, C02 increased at a rate 1/300th slower. 3. THE IMPACT OF CONTINUING CLIMATE CHANGE Melting of the Arctic is increasing our winter climate extremes. 25

23. 2014 CO2 levels of 400 ppm are 120 ppm above the pre- industrial average 1875 • Carbon isotope ratios indicate the CO2 increase since1750 is from burning ~300 million yr old fossil fuels. 1. HUMAN INFLUENCE ON WARMING 26 Little Ice Age

24. CORRELTAION BETWEEN TEMP AND CO2 INCREASE 1880 – 1980: CO2 increased 47 ppm. 1980 – 2010: CO2 increased 52 ppm. Aerosols 27

25. Increasing CO2 gas density: 1. raises temperature of earth’s surface. 2. reduces temperature of the stratosphere. 28

26. • C02 CONCENTRATION IN THE INDUSTRIALIZED NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS GREATER THAN THE SOUTHERN. • TEMP. INCREASE, SINCE 1880, OF NORTHERN = 1.1 deg. C • TEMP. INCREASE OF SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE = 0.4 deg C HUMAN CO2 FOOTPRINT Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Aboard NASA’s Aquilla Satellite. 29

27. During the steepest warming, the CO2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE. CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories 4 M PEOPLE 7 B Ice Age Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012) 2. CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING 30

28. At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 -10,000 years ago. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, COULD REACH ~1000 PPM BY 21OO. Ice Age 31

29. • Our present level of 400 ppm could reach ~ 1000 ppm by 2100. • Arctic became ice-free 8 M years ago when CO2 = 300 to 450 ppm. • Antarctic melted ~ 40 M years ago, CO2 ~ 700 ppm -Earth was ice-free, sea levels 100s meters (~300 ft) higher. Dinosaur Extinction 65M Yr. BP Figure from Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS 32

30. Blue: Sea level change from tide-gauge data (Church J.A. and White N.J., Geophys. Res. Lett. 2006; 33: L01602) Red: Univ. Colorado sea level analyses in satellite era (http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/SeaLevel/). Sea levels are rising 4 times faster: 12 in/century at present from 3 in/century 1870– 1924. 12 in./100 years. 7.5 in./100 years 3 in. /100 years 33

31. Earlier predictions for 2100: 2 to 6 feet Climate scientist James Hansen, a former director at NASA, predicts: “the sea level will rise by at least 7 more feet by 2070. This could range as high 17 feet, depending on the model parameter.” http://www.bradenton.com/opinion/letters-to-theeditor/article68272492.html#storylink=cpy 34

32. NASA photos of Thwaites Glacier, size of Mexico, Western Antarctica. Richard Alley, a glaciologist at Penn State University, an author of the last IPCC report: “If the Thwaites Glacier breaks free from it rocky berth, it woud raise sea 35

33. A darker Arctic is boosting global warming From1979 to 2011, less reflecting ice, more absorbing water made North Pole warm twice as fast as the rest of the earth. http://www.pnaorg/content/early/2014/02/13/1318201111.abstract Proc. National Academy of Science, Feb 18, 2014. 3. ARCTIC MELTING IN THE LAST 32 YEARS SATELITE PHOTO 36

34. ARCTIC IS MELTING FASTER THAN UN IPCC 2007 PREDICTIONS PREDICTEDPREDICTIONS UN IPCC CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS OF 300 SCIENTISTS FROM 40 NATIONS. From World Without Ice H. Pollack. 37

35. PAST COLD ARCTIC PRESENT WARMER ARCTIC Higher pressure sub-tropic constrained the low-pressure arctic Lower pressure difference allows waves of arctic air to invade the South: Warmer & Colder Winters. Cold Air Oscillates South from the Arctic The Arctic is warming faster than the rest of our earth. Therefore the temperature and the accompanying pressure difference that used to keep arctic air up North comes South, bringing cold air to Atlanta & New Orleans. The Winters of our Discontent Charles H. Green, Scientific American, pgs 51-55, Dec.2012 38

36. “Physics Today” Jan 2009 Pg. 48. 11- yr sun-spot cycle. No increase in solar irradiance since 1979. 39

37. At the 2002 Sigma Xi Research Symposium I asked Prof. Molina: “What do you think about global warming ?” Prof. Mario J. Molina shared the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for his work in atmospheric chemistry showing that the human generation of CFC were making a hole in ozone layer. He answered that global weather forecasting and predicting are complex and difficult. However if your question is, “Should we do something about global warming?” My answer is: “YES!” We must reduce our CO2 emissions. 40

38. The Yale Cultural Cognition Project is an interdisciplinary team that uses empirical methods to examine the impact of group values on perceptions of reality. Their work has been used to criticize climate science deniers, arguing that without intent to deceive, they honestly see and hear only the evidence that is relevant to their preconceived notion of reality. The same argument has been used to attack scientists in the climate field arguing that they unconsciously "choose" data that fits and ignore data that does not fit the models they wish to promote. In both cases the underlying motivation is claimed to be fear of losing intrinsically valuable notions of self and access to money from fossil fuel companies for deniers and to government grants for scientists.

39. Why do some people still believe in knowledge that is contrary to empirical data ? (1) TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim. (2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off. (3) H.Con.Res.89 - Expressing the sense of Congress that a carbon tax would be detrimental to the United States economy. 114th Congress (2015-2016) (4) Humans are not accelerating global warming, which is contrary to recent data. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not

40. Sweden, one of the few countries that tax carbon, has reduced its emissions by about twenty-three per cent in the past twenty-five years. During that same period, its economy has grown by more than fifty-five per cent.

41. GDP Emissions

42. 10/9/15 www. CitizensClimateLobby.org - Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. -Dividend would be returned to everyone. -Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.

43. Why do some people still believe in knowledge that is contrary to empirical data ? (1)TheFlatEearthSociety.org claim. (2) Federal tax cuts for the rich will make everyone better off. - Data shows it has: a. increased income inequality & b. increased our national debt. (3) Humans are not accelerating global warming, which is contrary to recent data. Our discussion will increase an understanding of how we come to know. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” Upton Sinclair 1934 “We have a plethora of information, but apaucity of knowledge and wisdom.” didate for Governor: And How I Got Licked by Upton Sinclair 1934

44. The Blind men examining the elephant illustrates limited worldviews.

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