Where should we add some for better forecast?

100 %
0 %
Information about Where should we add some for better forecast?
Technology

Published on February 27, 2014

Author: motesaku

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Introduction to "ALERA"

ALERA is a new atmospheric objective analysis dataset produced by JAMSTEC.
This is produced by using an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation technique,
so that we get a very "interesting" and "useful" product.


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/afes/alera/

Reference:
"The influence of the observations propagated
by convective coupled equatorial waves"

Qoosaku Moteki1,*, Kunio Yoneyama1, Ryuichi Shirooka1,
Hisayuki Kubota1, Kazuaki Yasunaga1, Junko Suzuki1,
Ayako Seiki1, Naoki Sato2, Takeshi Enomoto3,
Takemasa Miyoshi4, Shozo Yamane5

Article first published online: 18 APR 2011

DOI: 10.1002/qj.779

The Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Volume 137, Issue 656, pages 641--655, April 2011 Part A

Abstract:
This paper describes the propagation of the influence of radiosonde observations made during MISMO (Mirai Indian Ocean cruise for the Study of the Madden--Julian oscillation-convection Onset), which was conducted over the Indian Ocean in the boreal autumn of 2006. The impact of these observations was assessed using an experimental reanalysis called 'ALERA' that was produced by the local ensemble transform Kalman filter with the atmospheric global circulation model for the Earth Simulator. The difference of the analysis ensemble mean between the analysis cycles with and without the MISMO observations was used to quantify the influence of these observations on the analysis field, which we call impact signals. Since the impact signals were contaminated by noise, probably due to the model's truncated spectral basis, a significance test was performed using the analysis ensemble spread, and the numerical noise was then successfully eliminated. The results indicated that convectively coupled equatorial waves propagated the impact signals to the central Pacific to the east and to the African continent to the west. In particular, the analysis fields around typhoons Cimaron, Chebi, and Durian over the tropical Western Pacific were significantly modified by the propagation of the impact signals through the Kelvin waves. Here two factors played important roles: (1) the meridional positions of the typhoons; and (2) the duration of the observations. The equatorial Rossby waves also made a significant contribution to the propagation of the impact signals. Such influences through the waves resulted in the reduction of the analysis spread. The shape of the region of reduced spread resembled the Matsuno--Gill pattern with an east-west width of more than 20000 km.

Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

MOTEKI Qoosaku Tropical Climate Variability Research Program Japan Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Where should we add observations in the Tropics? ion projects sive observat Inten y JAMSTEC conducted b

Operational Upper-air Sounding

z z 1-D 2-D t t Weather Station Radio Sonde 3-D y x Weather Radar t

Where should we add observations in the Tropics? ion projects sive observat Inten y JAMSTEC conducted b

CINDY Oct.-Dec. 2011 Radar Vessel

How much improvement do you get? ion projects sive observat Inten y JAMSTEC conducted b

Improvement by CINDY degrade improvement rate (%) = improve % Error without Obs. - Error with Obs. Error without Obs.

observation Spread ≒ Error next analysis forecast current analysis

Objective evaluation of the ”value” of Additional observations

Analysis error of U during MISMO2006 ● operational sounding small error (m/s) large error

Analysis error of U during MISMO2006 ● MISMO sounding ● operational sounding small error (m/s) large error

ALERA available from http://www.jamstec.go.jp/esc/research/ oreda/products/

Improvement by CINDY degrade improvement rate (%) = improve % Error without Obs. - Error with Obs. Error without Obs.

Message

Continuous contribution needs continuous connection

continuous connection on the Youtube

the Youtube leads details

the video like a music

JAMSTEC original products will surely contribute for better forecast in the Tropics

Add a comment

Related presentations

Related pages

Where should we add some for better forecast? | It's a ...

Where should we add some for better forecast? from Kosaku Moteki,Where should we add some for better forecast? from Kosaku Moteki
Read more

Where should we add some for better forecast? - motesaku's ...

Where should we add some for better forecast? from Kosaku Moteki
Read more

Which weather forecast should you believe? | News | The ...

Which weather forecast should you believe? ... We’re doing some maintenance right now. ... but please come back later to add your own.
Read more

Time Series Analysis for Business Forecasting

... as the ability to make a better forecast. However, in some cases these gains ... forecast, we must know to ... some alteration should be made ...
Read more

Forecasting with Many Models: Model Confidence Sets and ...

Confidence Sets and Forecast ... forecast combination should also lead to better nal ... the best forecast combination. We add to this ...
Read more

Windfinder - Help/FAQ

The Windfinder help section provides ... which forecast model works better for you. For some spots ... we also have forecast maps for ...
Read more

Forecast and plan your sales - Info entrepreneurs

A sales forecast is an essential tool for ... New businesses should avoid the mistake of working out the level ... Forecast and plan your sales, © Crown ...
Read more

should modal verb - Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary

Definition of shouldmodal verb in Oxford Advanced Learner's Dictionary. ... Should we call the doctor? Had better can also ... or to add emphasis: We ...
Read more