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Business-Finance

Published on April 9, 2008

Author: Melinda

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Wireless Foresight Conference:  Wireless Foresight Conference June 5 2002 An afternoon about the Wireless Future:  An afternoon about the Wireless Future Project Wireless Foresight Four scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015 Challenges facing Industry Implications for research Alternative view of the future Prof. Eli Noam, Columbia University ”Open Access and Industry Cyclicality” Panel discussion ”Research and Research Funding for a Positive Wireless Future” Jens Zander (KTH, chair) Eli Noam (Columbia University) Bo Dahlbom (SITI) Bernt Ericson (Ericsson Foresight) Bertil Thorngren (Stockholm School of Economics) Wireless@KTH:  Wireless@KTH A Center for Research and Education Focus on Wireless Systems: Mobile Computing & Communication Joint research between academia and industry Common reserach projects and programs Industrial partnership Active participation: Internships and Research Fellows Partnership program on four levels Founding partners International partners Associate partners Network partners A Vision Driven Research Approach:  A Vision Driven Research Approach Wireless Foresight ”Think Tank” Center Vision 2015 and beyond Center Projects on Key Problems Graduates Innovations Papers Techno- Socio- Economic- Scenarios Partners Other scenarios (WSI, WWRF, TF) External researchers Industrial Partners:  Industrial Partners Initial donation Ericsson, Telia, Microsoft, Nokia Founding partners Ericsson, Telia Other Industrial Partners (as of May 2002) 3GIS Genista Allgon Kevab Axis MSI BIC Mid Sweden Northstream Blue Factory Operax Carnegie Semcon e-tenna Tele2 Europolitan Widermind Academic Founders:  Academic Founders Carl Gustaf Jansson Knowledge and Communication Engineering Gunnar Karlsson Teletrafic Systems Bastiaan Kleijn Speech Signal Processing Gerald ”Chip” Maguire Computer Communication Systems  Björn Ottersten Signal Processing Jens Zander Radio Communication Systems Four scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015:  Four scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015 Bo Karlson Wireless@KTH bo.karlson@wireless.kth.se www.wireless.kth.se/foresight Project Wireless Foresight:  Project Wireless Foresight September 1 2001 – June 5 2002 Objectives Create scenarios of the wireless future (2015) Identify key research areas for the Center and in general Create a shared vision of the wireless future within the Center Build network, create visibility Focus on the development of the Wireless Industry Vendors (infrastructure and terminals) Operators Service providers and developers Global scope Wireless Foresight, the report:  Wireless Foresight, the report Four scenarios Trends and Fundamental drivers Technical implications from the scenarios Key research areas Challenges for industry Four Scenarios of the Wireless World 2015:  Four Scenarios of the Wireless World 2015 Wireless Explosion – Creative Destruction Slow Motion Rediscovering Harmony Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments It’s not about describing how the world will look, but how it might look! Wireless Explosion – Creative Destruction:  Wireless Explosion – Creative Destruction Wireless Explosion – Creative Destruction:  Wireless Explosion – Creative Destruction Usage and industry growing rapidly Fast technological development An explosion of wireless applications and services All markets growing fast Old telco industry loses to datacom attackers Datacom industry (Internet & IP) winning Main characteristics:  Main characteristics A fiercly competitive world Intense competition, many players Infrastucture based on IP and datacom paradigm Market leaders unable to expand ”monopoly” power Active users want open IP access and take control Advanced users after 20 years with the Net: Choice & Freedom ”Anarchistic” underground culture: IPR-enforcement difficult Mobile life-style New spectrum released but mostly for unlicensed use Ad-hoc deployed networks, do-it-yourself wireless access Disruptive market change:  Disruptive market change Modularization Standardized interfaces: IP, open APIs, software platforms etc. Closed telco-style systems lose Technologies and functions dis-integrating Each module a niche market with intense competition Creative Destruction Rapid development transforming industry Old market leaders lose and attackers win Operators and telco equipment vendors vulnerable Slow Motion:  Slow Motion Slow Motion:  Slow Motion Slow pace of development Services, Industry, and Wireless Technology Problems affecting the Wireless industry Financial crisis among operators: a domino effect Global economic recession 3G fiasco Health problems from radiation Environmental awareness High power consumption and low battery capacity Managing a heterogeneous and complex wireless world Main characteristics:  Main characteristics The mobile lifestyle loses ground Urbanization slows down in the industrial world More people work from home or local offices Traveling increases, but very slowly No service explosion Simple services popular (payments, MMS, news, music etc.) Advanced services too expensive Mobile professionals and Industrial users the only driving segments Big NICs catching up Wireless a mature industry:  Wireless a mature industry Slow pace of growth Low profit margins Increased concentration in most segments Traditional Telcos still dominating Operators Consolidation leading to fewer actors Equipment vendors Focus on NICs and on traditional operators Terminal vendors Large segment of cheap and reliable terminals Rediscovering harmony:  Rediscovering harmony Rediscovering harmony:  Rediscovering harmony The wireless industry refocusing Reasonably fast pace of development Simple services for the mass-market Complex solutions for niche segments Local operators co-exist with global communication providers A new lifestyle Postmaterialism Quality of life (family and friends) The environment is sacred Main characteristics:  Main characteristics Individualism, environmentalism, and social awareness Both local and global lifestyle From crammed cities to local communities People live locally but think globally Less daily travel but increased global travel We have slowed down Information overflow eventually made us ”tune out” Social life and environmental concern most important Peoples’ needs are in charge Being old means being wealthy, active and demanding Youths demand 24/7 services, personalized technology and ethically and environmentally aware companies An industry trying to adapt:  An industry trying to adapt The wireless industry tries to refocus No wireless explosion, but still quite a large market Brand important, but in a new way ”Tribes” and subcultures with different needs Global and local operators/service providers Industry struggles to understand the ”new” marketplace Only in the industrialized world Change of values linked to socio/economic development NICs still have postindustrial values Large but traditional markets Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments:  Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments:  Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments Wireless industry stagnant Less competition No opportunities for new players The big players dominate Governments exert tight control Issues of security and copyright driving Government can more easily control few players Large companies become even larger Mergers of companies into ”Moguls” Moguls grow on all markets Main characteristics:  Main characteristics Governments All communication tightly surveilled Very little new spectrum released No new players allowed on emerging markets and niches Moguls Brand rules Focus on user convenience, security, and safety Operators/service providers are global companies No wireless explosion but users are satisfied A Perfect World:  A Perfect World Privacy Companies not to give out information Government can acquire information Security All transactions secure and surveilled Piracy not possible Freedom Not much, but it is accepted NICs might host data havens/providers Slide27:  Fundamental Drivers of Development 14 trends shaping the scenarios:  14 trends shaping the scenarios Development will be more user driven User mobility will increase The service and application market will grow 4. User security, integrity, and privacy will become more important Real or perceived health problems due to radiation will become more important Environmental issues will become more important Spectrum will become an increasingly scarce resource 14 trends shaping the scenarios cont.:  14 trends shaping the scenarios cont. 8. The wireless Industry will grow The big NICs will continue their positive development Market concentration in the wireless industry will change The fight for market dominance in the wireless industry will intensify 12. Terminal usage time and complexity management will become increasingly important problems 3G will be implemented 14. Protection of IPR on content will become incresingly difficult Challenges Facing Industry:  Challenges Facing Industry Jonas Lind Stockholm School of Economics Slide32:  Disruptive market change – winners and loser Spectrum release – faster and smarter 3G debt threat – smarter spectrum policy Cheaper infrastructure – fewer masts, more electronics Better batteries – users will not accept daily recharging Better usability – make it seamless, useful and intuitive Complexity management – IP, modularized, open APIs A few Challenges for Industry Disruptive market change – winners and loser:  Industry moving from vertical integration to markets in horizontal layers Disruptive innovation – an attack ”from below” Incumbents often arrogant and miss the warnings: ”inferior technology” Is the wireless telco industry in for a disruptive attack from the datacom industry? How will the wireless telco industry respond to disruptive attackers? Disruptive market change – winners and loser Slide34:  Industry moving from vertical integration to markets in horizontal layers Customer relations Network managment Services Access network Back-bone network Old incumbents: Vertically integrated New marketplace: Excellence in one segment Customer relations Network managment Services Access network Back-bone network Slide35:  Disruptive innovation – an attack “from below” Time Performance logaritmic scale New technology enters low-end market Unix and Vax computers New technology replaces old technology Market for old technology PC Wintel computers Market for attacking technology Logics of disruptive innovations:  Logics of disruptive innovations Attackers with radically cheaper technology (ten times cheaper) Enter on low-end market – unreliable, but fullfil unmet need Quickly build volume (*10), eat away low-end market from incumbents Old technology responds by retreating into high-end segment High sales volumes give attackers fast performance growth Attackers fix flaws in design along the way When new technology is ”good enough” for most customers, the old technology fails! Slide37:  Incumbents often arrogant and miss the warnings: ”inferior technology” Slide38:  Weak entry points for attackers Unlicenced spectrum Self-deployed networks (”the $39 wireless access point”) ”Good-enough” quality at a tenth of the price IP, modularization and open APIs give much lower complexity No hierarchical control Agile, hyperfoced firms (layered, excellence in one segment) WLANs and WISPs Telco universe High-cost business model (extreme reliability & quality) Centralized hierarchical control (high complexity system management) Slowness inherent for vertically integrated firms Telco market power from Control of spectrum Geographical physical infrastructure Customer lock-in Is the Wireless telco industry in for a disruptive attack from the datacom industry ? What will happen?:  What will happen? How will the Wireless Telco industry respond to disruptive attackers? Counter and grab the opportunities or ignore and lose? Slide40:  Mobile (90% of population) has below 10% of all usable spectrum (0.4-5 GHz) Rest is controlled by legacy users, the millitary (30%) and TV broadcasters Spectrum shortage is hampering competition and forcing operators to build unnecessary expensive infrastructure Spectrum policy handled by slow moving diplomatic WRC meetings (no significant spectrum release possible until 2013) Faster spectrum release must be put on the political agenda Spectrum release – faster and smarter Slide41:  How to solve the spectrum issue Increase competiton by releasing lots of new spectrum To operators For unlicensed use Replace auctions with revenue sharing during life-time Sell spectrum and use proceeds to compensate the military and other legacy users Slide42:  3G debt threat – smarter spectrum policy Wireless spectrum is valuable due to shortage Massive spectrum release will reduce value of 3G licenses 3G operators paid for licenses under “the old regime” Compensate 3G license ”winners” when massive spectrum release reduces value of their spectrum Slide43:  The 3G debt problem (cont.) 3G debts threaten to trigger a financial crash The auction party in 2000 (€120 billion) Future 3G build-out commitments (€140 billion) Future cost for hand-set subsidies and marketing In a deep recession, financial market will cancel telco credits EU, industry, and governments must deal with the problem Alleviate demands from regulators and allow unlimited infrastructure sharing (consumer will not benefit from bankrupt operators and half-built networks) Slide44:  Cheaper infrastructure – fewer masts, more electronics Wireless of today based on a high-cost business model Dedicated infrastucture with masts, macro-cells, cabling etc. Spectrum shortage, keeping tariffs high Homogeneous network, same in rural as in city centers Data traffic explosion can not be carried on traditional macro-cell networks (GPRS and 3G) at affordable costs Future infrastructure must build on a new topology Possible cost cuts of 70% (if no dedicated towers, etc.) Different networks in rural areas, along roads, and in cities? Different networks for broadcast and personal communication? Ride on to the existing fixed Net in urban areas? Self-deployed, optical wireless, ad-hoc, peer-to-peer? Slide45:  Disruptive market change – winners and loser Spectrum release – faster and smarter 3G debt threat – smarter spectrum policy Cheaper infrastructure – fewer masts, more electronics Better batteries – users will not accept daily recharging Better usability – make it seamless, useful and intuitive Complexity management – IP, modularised, open APIs Summary – industry challenges Implications for Research:  Implications for Research Aurelian Bria Royal Institute of Technology (KTH) aurelian@radio.kth.se Slide48:  Scenarios Technical Implications Key Research Areas Seven Key Research Areas:  Seven Key Research Areas Technical Implications (”Best case”):  Technical Implications (”Best case”) System Characteristics Heterogeneous infrastructure Small cost per transmitted bit, etc. Terminals Wide range of shapes and capabilities Long usage time before recharging, etc. Services Wireless services will become a commodity Services will be independent of the infrastructure, etc. Key Research Areas:  Key Research Areas Air-interfaces and Protocols Resource management Sharing and coexistence Decentralized management Dynamic spectrum allocation, etc. System Integration Complexity management Multimode and adaptive terminals, etc. Key Research Areas (cont.):  Key Research Areas (cont.) New and advanced services Context awareness ”Smart” spaces Ubiquitous services and sensors, etc. Usability Inteligent user interface Personal networks, etc. Key Research Areas (cont.):  Key Research Areas (cont.) Cross-disciplinary research Low cost infrastructure and business models ”Affordable wireless services” Health and Environmental Impact ”Perceived “safe” technology” Conclusions:  Conclusions The demand for wireless communication services will increase New technology, services, and business models need to be developed There are many engineering challenges out there There is currently a big need for research on wireless Cross-disciplinary research is important Focus on the end user

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