Weekly Market Snapshot, August 14, 2009

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Information about Weekly Market Snapshot, August 14, 2009

Published on August 17, 2009

Author: jeffgreen

Source: slideshare.net

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The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy statement held few surprises. The FOMC wrote that recent information “suggests that economic activity is leveling out” (vs. the previous policy statement: “the pace of economic contraction is slowing”). The FOMC left the fed funds target range at 0% to 0.25% and repeated that “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

Green Financial Group | Houston, TX http://www.raymondjames.com/jeffgreen/WeeklyMarketSnapshot.aspx Investor Access Green Financial Group An Independent Firm Weekly Market Snapshot Home August 14, 2009 Market Commentary About Us by Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist 6363 Woodway Dr Services The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) policy statement held few surprises. The FOMC wrote that recent information Suite 870 “suggests that economic activity is leveling out” (vs. the previous policy statement: “the pace of economic contraction is slowing”). The Houston, TX 77057 Phone: 713-244-3030 Newsletters FOMC left the fed funds target range at 0% to 0.25% and repeated that “economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low Fax: 713-513-5669 levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.” Contact Us Market View Policymakers made clear the exit strategy for its plan to purchase long-term Treasury securities. “To promote a smooth transition in Map & Directions markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed,” the FOMC wrote, “the Committee has decided to gradually Financial Resources slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October.” Still, the FOMC Securities are offered through left open the possibility of extending its asset purchase plans – the plan to purchase up to $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities Contact Us RAYMOND JAMES and agency debt runs to December. FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC. Member FINRA / SIPC Additional Links The economic data were mixed. Retail sales disappointed in July, falling 0.1% overall and 0.6% ex-autos. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) was in line with expectations, flat overall (-2.1% year-over-year) and up 0.1% ex-food and energy (+1.5% year-over- year). The mild CPI partly reflected softness in shelter costs (the glut of housing has apparently contributed to low rent increases this year, and out-of-town lodging fell sharply in July). Industrial production rose 0.5% in July, largely reflecting a seasonal quirk in autos (up 20.1% from June, but down 9.2% before seasonal adjustment). Ex-autos, factory output rose 0.2% (-13.4% year-over-year). Next week, the economic data have some market-moving potential – but none of the reports will significantly alter the underlying economic picture. The Producer Price Index (PPI) report carries much less weight in months when it follows the CPI report. The residential construction figures may reflect normal volatility in the multi-family sector. On Thursday, the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) should post a fourth consecutive monthly increase, consistent with a near-term bottom in the overall economy. On Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will give his impressions of the financial crisis over the last year and relate the efforts made to prevent a more serious economic collapse. Indices Last Last Week YTD return % DJIA 9398.19 9256.26 7.08% NASDAQ 2009.35 1973.16 27.41% S&P 500 1012.73 997.08 12.12% MSCI EAFE 1464.94 1452.56 18.39% Russell 2000 575.19 557.62 15.16% 1 of 4 8/17/2009 1:35 PM

Green Financial Group | Houston, TX http://www.raymondjames.com/jeffgreen/WeeklyMarketSnapshot.aspx Consumer Money Rates Last 1-year ago Prime Rate 3.25 5.00 Fed Funds 0.25 2.00 30-year mortgage 5.38 6.43 Currencies Last 1-year ago Dollars per British Pound 1.658 1.870 Dollars per Euro 1.429 1.492 Japanese Yen per Dollar 95.48 109.53 Canadian Dollars per Dollar 1.087 1.063 Mexican Peso per Dollar 12.87 10.16 Commodities Last 1-year ago Crude Oil 70.52 116.00 Gold 954.87 826.80 Bond Rates Last 1-month ago 2-year treasury 1.06 1.16 10-year treasury 3.55 3.56 10-year municipal (TEY) 5.05 5.12 Treasury Yield Curve – 8/14/2009 2 of 4 8/17/2009 1:35 PM

Green Financial Group | Houston, TX http://www.raymondjames.com/jeffgreen/WeeklyMarketSnapshot.aspx S&P Sector Performance Charts – 8/14/2009 Economic Calendar August 17 — Empire State Manufacturing Index (August) Homebuilder Sentiment (August) August 18 — Producer Price Index (July) Building Permits, Housing Starts (July) August 20 — Jobless Claims (week ending August 15) Leading Economic Indicators (July) Philly Fed Index (August) 3 of 4 8/17/2009 1:35 PM

Green Financial Group | Houston, TX http://www.raymondjames.com/jeffgreen/WeeklyMarketSnapshot.aspx August 21 — Existing Home Sales (July) Bernanke Speaks (“Reflections on a Year of Crisis”) August 25 — Consumer Confidence (August) August 26 — Durable Goods Orders (July) August 27 — Real GDP (2Q09, “second” estimate) September 4 — Employment Report (August) September 7 — Labor Day (markets closed) September 22/23 — FOMC Meeting November 3/4 — FOMC Meeting December 15/16 — FOMC Meeting Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There are special risks involved with global investing related to market and currency fluctuations, economic and political instability, and different financial accounting standards. The above material has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. There is no assurance that any trends mentioned will continue in the future. Municipal bond interest is not subject to federal income tax but may be subject to AMT, state or local taxes. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. US government bonds and treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. US government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the US government. Commodities trading is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Markets for commodities are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Specific sector investing can be subject to different and greater risks than more diversified investments. Tax Equiv Muni yields (TEY) assume a 35% tax rate on triple-A rated, tax-exempt insured revenue bonds. Material prepared by Raymond James for use by its financial advisors. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Data source: Bloomberg, as of close of business August 6th, 2009. Site Map Raymond James financial advisors may only conduct business with residents of the states and/or jurisdictions for which they are properly registered. Therefore, a response to a request for information may be delayed. Please note that not all of the investments and services mentioned are available in every state. Investors outside of the United States are subject to securities and tax regulations within their applicable jurisdictions that are not addressed on this site. Contact your local Raymond James office for information and availability. © 2009 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA / SIPC Privacy Notice 4 of 4 8/17/2009 1:35 PM

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