Published on December 4, 2008
Week Thirteen What’s Next? Wayne MacPhail
The future is here. It’s just unevenly distributed. -William Gibson
We drive into the future using only our rearview mirror. - Marshall McLuhan
The best way to predict the future, is to invent it. - Alan Kay
1955 This ball is really important!
1955 It says, be sure to plug in the keyboard and monitor! WTF? Oh, nice use of an anacronistic acronym for a cheap laugh Gladys, you skank.
1969 34,000 bytes of memory 4,000,000,000 G of memory 43,000 Hz 2.600,000,000 GHz $46 million <$1000
1970 Flammable Pants
1980 Not a hairpiece
2008 2010 = 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1992 1994
2012 Four Years From Now
1980-2008 4 million times more memory
Cost per megabyte of storage by year 50.0 1986 48 1990 13.6 37.5 1994 1.3 25.0 1998 0.066 2002 0.039 12.5 2006 0.0064 0 2008 0.0034 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2008
Watch the trends Expect disruptive innovation Imagine zero
Disruptive Innovations Digital vs Film Photography Desktop vs. Press Publishing LEDs vs. Light Bulbs Twitter vs Newsrooms
Analytical Engine 1837 Charles Babbage
Memex, 1945 Vannevar Bush
Home Computer, 1954 Rand Corporation
Knowledge Navigator, 1987 Apple Computer
Apple Lisa, 1984 Apple Computer
The Trend to Zero Cost Time Storage Bandwidth Monitors Memory Processors Newspaper Readership
How to Think About the Future
Past Present Future Always concurrent
What’s next? First, what used to be next.
We’ve passed that now.
Multi-modal input with context awareness
Geo-location Geo-location Geo-location
OLED 100,000:1 ratio .002 inches thick Flaps in the breeze Will show up in photo IDs and cellphones
Wireless, location-aware silicon is the new wood pulp.
And the news? Granularity melts. Newsrooms unify. Curation rules. Newspaper thinking dies.
Online Journalism Blog
And the you? You get to make this all true.
Thanks for your kind attention.
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