Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

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Information about Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09
Education

Published on February 2, 2009

Author: mptotten

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Presentation on January 22, 2009, by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor on Climate and Water at Conservation International, given tot the Los Angeles chapter of Bioneers. Interdisciplinary perspectives on solutions to climate catastrophe threat, species extinction threat, mass poverty, water shortages, oil and resource wars, using the Web tools for generating collective intelligence and social collaboration. Very positive outlook on seemingly intractable and irreversible perils confronting humanity this century. 13 Mb file. No voice over, but one with voice is forthcoming.

Gathering Data & Harvesting Collective Intelligence

Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing Senator James Inhofe (R-OK) Evangelical James Dobson Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee Raymond

“The best way to predict your future is to create it!” Abraham Lincoln “The long-term threat of climate change, which, if left unchecked, could result in violent conflict, terrible storms, shrinking coastlines, and irreversible catastrophe.” Barack Obama

The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

4 TRENDS – CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES WWW MESH CLIMATE CATASTROPHE FOOD/WATER SHORTAGES MASS POVERTY

Climate Solution Resources www.climateprogress.org/ www.realclimate.org/ www.aclimateforlife.org/

Climate Catastrophe

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Losing Nature’s “Insurance Capacity” Figure shows declining insurance industry capacity to absorb weather-related natural disasters. Curves show ratio of global weather-related property losses to total property/casualty premiums over the past quarter-century, indexed to average 1980 levels. Source: Evan Mills, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

$2.5 trillion almost a quarter of the US economy is at risk from the large forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since weather the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading … a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining the level of quot;catastrophe insurancequot; needed: quot;rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction …A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment.quot; Weitzman, Martin. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint 2008 now 45GtCO2 2050 reduce to <10 GtCO2 2100 reduce to <4 GtCO2 Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights- based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

yr yr / / 2% 3% x 7x 19

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions oil gas coal forests geothermal Assumes: agriculture 1% 2% 1% 5% biomass1% 5% 10% 1) Global economic bldgs EE growth 2-3% 15% per year all wind century long; 15% 2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains; transport EE 15% 3) Combined solar carbon cap & 15% carbon tax industry EE 15%

“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year 5 billion tons CO2 per year in Billion tons CO2 mitigation services available in 25 poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars 20 annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars. 15 10 US GHG 5 levels 0 Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use 13 million hectares burned each year IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

Research commissioned by the Stern Review, indicates that the direct yields from land converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber, are equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton. Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options, second only to energy efficiency options. For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store 1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants. The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 times this amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

U.S. Fossil- fueled Geological storage (CCS) vs Electricity Carbon Offset Ecological storage (REDD) cost nationally per year Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2 $50 $45 $40 ~$60 billion $35 3 ¢ per kWh $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 ~$10 billion $- 0.5 ¢ per kWh CCS REDD

About $800 billion per year (at 8% of $10 trillion U.S. economy) 100 years of Cumulative Energy Costs at 2.5%/yr GDP Growth ■USA $355 trillion (out of total of $4,444 trillion GNP) ■GLOBAL $1,422 trillion (out of total $17,774 trillion GWP) 200 1970 6

USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply $700 billion per year in energy bill savings Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year. Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year. Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs) BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years – 113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum. SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions. Envision OR, Envision OR, Envision eliminating the eliminating the eliminating the need for 13.8 need for 10,000 need for 17 billion coal giant offshore million LNG railcars this oil platforms tanker century. this century. shipments.

$1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value $300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account [source: SafeClimate.net]

CFL factories displace Powerplants The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps. source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

Less Large Power Plants & Mines More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Coal Power Plants Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines

Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All: Supplier Chain Factories & Products Efficiency Outcomes Demand Facts 2 trillion kWh per year savings – Industrial electric motor systems equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be consume 40% of electricity built through 2030 worldwide. worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per $240 billion savings per decade. year. $200 to $400 billion benefits per Retrofit savings of 30%, New decade in avoided emissions of savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. GHGs, SO2 and NOx. SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive Support SEEEM (Standards market transformation strategy to promote efficient for Energy Efficiency of industrial electric motor systems worldwide Electric Motor Systems)

ZERO NET ENERGY GREEN BUILDINGS The Costs and Financial Benefits of Green Buildings, Public library – North Carolina A Report to California’s Sustainable Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by Greg Kats et al. $500 to $700 per m2 net present value Oberlin College Ecology Center, Heinz Foundation Ohio Green Building, PA

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.

KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING Align utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency, onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities. Amory Lovins Dr. Art Rosenfeld

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants” For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services USA minus CA & NY Per Capital Electricity 165 GW Coal Consumption Power New York Plants California [EPPs] Californian’s have net savings of $1,000 per family California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions. California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

Avoided Emissions & Savings per China EPP Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP) (1.8 billion kWh per year) Eliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coal Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2 Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2 Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals Avoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge Saves 45 billion gallons waters Accrues $67.5 million annual savings Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment [1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT T

end-use bldg scale recycled nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity end-use bldg scale recycled CC ind nuclear coal CC gas wind farm ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services end-use bldg scale recycled CC ind nuclear coal CC gas wind farm ind cogen efficiency cogen cogen Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

DOZEN CRITERIA Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system 1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped? 2. Safe through the entire life cycle? 3. Clean through the entire lifespan? 4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility? 5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error? 6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity? 7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality? 8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises? 9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time? 10. Endogenous learning capacity intrinsic new productivity opportunities? 11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities scalable innovation possibilities? 12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

Uninteresting military target A Defensible Smart Energy Robust experience curves Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity Rebounds easily from failures Fails gracefully, not catastro Promote Environmentally benign CHP + Ecologically sustainable biowastes Resilient & flexible Secure Clean Safe Economically Affordable Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale CCS

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields 90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities. Cleaning Up Brownfield Sites w/ PV solar Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit) Material Economic Beijing Shanghai Replaced Measure NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237 Polished BCR 2.33 2.14 Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1 NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024 BCR 1.89 1.70 Aluminum PBP (yrs) 2 2 SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial building in Switzerland Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV Reference costs of facade-cladding materials BIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials. Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Mass Poverty More Absolute Poor than any time in Human History

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTS Human Development Report Human Development Report Human Development Report 2003 Millennium Development 2007/2008 Fighting climate 2006 Beyond scarcity: Power, Goals: A Compact Among change: Human solidarity in a poverty and the global water Nations to End Poverty divided world crisis www.hdr.undp.org/en/

More absolute poverty than any time in human history

Economic Pyramid Mature markets: >$20,000/yr Emerging markets: 75-100 million >$2,000-20,000/yr people 1.75 billion people Bottom of Pyramid Survival markets: <$2,000/yr 4 billion people

Fractal Market Model Creating a more resilient economy

Sierpinski “Pyramid” Fractal Market Model • Robust Scalability • Long tail markets • Resilience to Fat tail disruptions • More Virtuous cycles, less vicious ones • Collective Intelligence acceleration • Less brittle or vulnerable to linear, surprise-free, industrial model disasters • Greater social-ecological linkages • Harnesses complex adaptive system Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically processes, not rigidly generated pattern that can be reproducible at resist them any magnification or reduction.

Bottom of the Pyramid Growth Creating a World Without Poverty Social Business and the future of Capitalism Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty

2 billion people lack safe water Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of dollars in lost income to the poor Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

A new water disinfector for the developing world’s poor DESIGN CRITERIA • Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection • Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3) Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor • Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water • Reliable, Mature components • Can treat unpressurized water • Rapid throughput: 12 seconds • Low maintenance: 4x per year • No overdose risk • Fail-safe Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, WaterHealth Intl device Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global- water%202008.pdf

WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

WaterHealth International The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

WaterHealth International Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid. Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Brightening up life Micro-utility service provider Mr. Umor, who owns a grocery shop. He bought a solar PV system with 6 CFL lamps. One lights his shop, and he rents the other 5 to nearby shops, increasing income by $12.50/month, paying for entire investment in 40 months.

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

http://www.lightingafrica.org/

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) This is an unique combination of Grameen Bank and Grameen Shakti’s integrated effort for poverty reduction. • Solar PV System is being used for mobile phone charging. • Telephone lady earns US$100 per month from this pay phone. • The system also help her children for their education

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) Women are enjoying the hazardless and hassle free lighting system in their daily life. They are getting opportunities to earn extra money by utilizing their time after dusk by sewing or poultry farming.

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) Model 1:Entrepreneur install one solar PV system and shares the load with some other neighbors shop. In this model owner of the system pays monthly installment to GS and collects load charge (daily or weekly) from the users. This micro-utility system has no service charge, rather down payment is only 10%.

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti) 100,000 Solar Home Systems by 2008 in Bangladesh

RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES Brick house construction is still widely used in many Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildings rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year. The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY

COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS

GREEN CITIES & NEIGHBORHOODS

REGENERATIVE BUILDINGS – NEW & RENEWED

ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - LAND, FOOD & WATER

URBAN LANDSCAPES – EDIBLE & INCREDIBLE

WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS

MOBILITY & ACCESS

Vehicle-to-Grid Convergences & Emergences

Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage and bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind. Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

Immense Implications of V-to-Grid 1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution system of mobile batteries 2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources become economically attractive because plug-in vehicles provide battery storage 3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost off-peak power 4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in case of load loss, earning income on parked “asset” 5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency 6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity needs

Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity ENERGY POTENTIAL U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or 73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day). OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL ~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle) 27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal generation). Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Solar-battery Wind turbines ground footprint Wind-battery turbine spacing Cellulosic ethanol Corn ethanol Wind & Solar experts Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Food, Fuel, Species Tradeoffs? By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture. Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity- rich habitats.

Global Web Mesh

Global Wired Mesh Resources http://www.shirky.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ www.wikinomics.com/ The_Wealth_of_Networks And incredible video at: And incredible video at: And incredible video at: http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/ www.youtube.com/watc www.youtube.com/watc 855937/ h?v=NgYE75gkzkM h?v=NgYE75gkzkM

5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet

“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web” collective intelligence published content published user user content generated generated content content 45 million global users 1 billion+ global users

The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

Clay Shirkey’s Cognitive Surplus http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/ Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality. The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year. www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/lo oking-for-the-mouse.html One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.

Web3.0+ Semantically-linked RW web 1 trillion sites Collective intelligence Smart Grid published User generated content content 3 billion global users 2010-2012

5000 days ago Pre-Web 5000 days from now Global Cloud Network Pre-Commercial Internet

Classifying user-generated information where every click is a datum Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

A user interacts with items, which have associated metadata Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Ways users provide valuable information through their interactions Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Some ways to harness collective intelligence in your application Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Different content types Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Different content types (continued) Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Use of Wikis Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Content-based analysis, Collaborative filtering & Computing similarities Basics of algorithms for applying Collective Intelligence From User Clickstreams Representing intelligence from unstructured text The dot products of Multi-dimensional term vectors Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

Harnessing Collective Intelligence to: Prevent Climate Catastrophe Avert Mass Species Extinction Promote Green Prosperity & Well-being

UNINTENDED MOLECULAR GEOENGINEERING Wrapping Our Minds Around GHG Molecules

LEED Certified Green Buildings GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green Buildings CA GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green Buildings Laguna Honda Hospital GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green Buildings GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

Waste as Nutrient – Information Bitstream

Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.

What is a Complete Street? A Complete Street is safe, comfortable and convenient for travel via automobile, foot, bicycle, and transit. www.completestreets.org

Portland Oregon 1990 Bike lanes encourage bike commuting Black lines …Colors show show 1990 1990 mode bikeway splits network... (by census tract) Bike Commute Mode Split 0 - 2% 2 - 3% 3 - 5% 5 - 8% 8 - 10% City of Portland 10+% Dept. of Transportation www.completestreets.org

Portland Oregon 2000 Bike lanes encourage bike commuting Black lines show 2000 …Colors show bikeway 2000 mode network... splits (by census tract) Bike Commute Mode Split 0 - 2% 2 - 3% 3 - 5% 5 - 8% 8 - 10% City of Portland 10+% Dept. of Transportation www.completestreets.org

Success Complete canopy closure Trees planted sufficiently apart in a planting strip 10 feet wide; this spacing allowed for the crowns of individual trees to touch, encouraging development of a more natural upright form; The 10' wide planting strip allowed the trunk flare to develop appropriately State College, Pennsylvania Saint Augustine, Florida Seattle, Washington

Water Shortages

WATER Chinese Paddlefish (21 feet long)

21st Century Mega Freshwater Threats >85% Freshwater Consumption – Blue and Green Water - AGRICULTURE Aggravated by global trading expansion in virtual water imports and exports >40% Freshwater Use – Thermal & Hydroelectric POWER PLANTS Many of the same or similar utility and energy policies, rules, regulations, incentives addressing climate change threat are also applicable to freshwater threats from power plants CLIMATE IMPACTS – on Blue and Green Water systems Failure to stabilize atmospheric emissions under 450ppm could lead to 1/3rd decline in global agriculture latter half this century – leading to more land conversion and water consumption

World’s Water 2008- World’s Water 2006- More with Less 2009 2007 www.worldwater.org/ www.pacinst.org/ www.worldwater.org//

Lakes 52% 38% oisture Soil m Water within living organisms 1% Rivers 1% Atmospheric water vapor 8%

Global Water Consumption • Humanity consumes half of global freshwater flow 5,235 • No major river in the world is without existing or planned hydroelectric dams Increasing freshwater use 3,973 Total annual water • 2/3 of the freshwater withdrawal historical flowing to the oceans is & projected, in cubic controlled by dams kilometers 1,382 Yet…. 579 1950 2000 2025 1900 Clark, Robin & Jannet King, The Water Atlas, New Press, 2004.

Immense Water Shortages projected population 10 billion • 1 billion people without safe 4-5 billion water total population May live in countries 6 billion that are 0.5 billion • 4 billion yet to be born will need chronically lived in short of countries water additional freshwater in decades chronically short of to come water Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, and P. R. Ehrlich, 1996, Human appropriation of renewable fresh water, Science 271:785- 2000 2050 788, www.sciencemag.org/; Gleick PH, et al. 2003, The world's water 2002–2003, www.pacinst.org/; Jackson, Robert B., et al., Water in a Changing World, Issues in Ecology, Technical Report, Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp. 1027–1045, Ecological Society of America, www.esapubs.org/

Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.

Immense Water Waste The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003

Soft Water Path More productive, Less cost, Less damage Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water. Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices, often unconnected to the amount of water used. Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems, but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers. Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the world’s irrigated area. Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/

water footprints of the USA, World avg, China and India Period: 1997–2001 USA 2483 m3/cap/yr WORLD 1243 m3/cap/yr INDIA 980 m3/cap/yr CHINA 702 m3/cap/yr A. Y. Hoekstra · A. K. Chapagain, Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water Resources Management, (2007) 21:35–48

USA Water Use In 2000, an estimated 195,000 Mgal/d, or 219 million acre-feet per year, were withdrawn for thermoelectric power. • The least efficient water-cooled plants use as much as 50 gallons of water per (kWh. • Water quality is affected by water use at power plants because of the effects of the temperature of discharged cooling water and the conditioning agents used to treat cooling water

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains Figures of Merit Great Plains area 1,200,000 mi2 Provide 100% U.S. electricity 400,000 2MW wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2 Still available for farming and prairie restoration 90%+ (34,000 mi2) CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits non-wind farm windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm $0 $60 govt. subsidy $200 $0 windpower royalty $50 $64 farm commodity revenues Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double farm/ranch income with 30x less land area Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product. Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems How? The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Potential Synergisms Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co- evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high- value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts

Reverse Osmosis (RO) of Wastewater Reverse Osmosis estimates considered valid for China today ranges from a cost of $0.60 per m3 (1000 liters) for brackish and wastewater desalination to $1 per m3 for seawater desalination by RO. Extrapolating from technological trends, and the promise of ongoing innovations in lower-cost, higher performance membranes, seawater desalination costs will continue to fall. The average cost may decline to $0.30 per m3 in 2025.

RO of Wastewater into Clean Water For comparison, China’s average water prices are about $0.20 to $0.25 per m3 for domestic and industrial use, and $0.34 per m3 for commercial use, to a high of $0.60/m3 in Tianjin and Dalian. China’s State Council is moving to raise the price of urban water supply in Beijing to $0.72 per m3. This reverse-osmosis plant in Ashkelon, Israel, will eventually turn out 100 million cubic meters of fresh water a year, at a cost of $0.53 cents per m3, the cheapest ever by a desalination facility.

RO & CHP Synergism for Clean Water Desalination of wastewater has double benefits: it reduces contaminated discharges directly into rivers, and instead, economically expands the city’s freshwater supplies rather than importing remote water resources. China’s total wastewater discharges annually exceed 60 km3,(16 trillion gallons), and less than one- seventh of this wastewater was treated as of the late 1990s. Close to 600 million Chinese people have water supplies that are contaminated by animal and human waste. Harnessing 30 GW of cogeneration available in cities and industrial facilities potentially could operate reverse osmosis technologies to purify these wastewaters, while also providing ancillary energy services like space and water heating & cooling, etc.

And the Slides Go On

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLE First documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year 2005 1950 www.armsflow.org/

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months. Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not Represent Customer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions Retail-driven Scenario Status Quo USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000 2007-2030 • Lower energy costs • Lower price DOE $8 trillion Environmental/ volatility budget losses price $325 health volatlity • Lower externalities billion $10+ trillion 2/3 Environmental Dept of efficiency & Health Energy $25 trillion solar, wind externalities energy costs biofuels Military/ • Lower military Security 4% for all & security externalities $10+ trillion efficiency & 5% externalities all renewables Outcomes Priorities Outcomes Priorities Oil industry High energy costs Consumers • Shift of capital from utility Utility industry Volatile Prices Retailers sector to retail sector Coal industry Security vulnerability Suppliers • Greening supply chain out Natural gas industry Higher pollution levels Manufacturers of avoided utility costs Nuclear industry Long-term environmental Natural resource • Tax-free reductions in air & Large Hydro industry damage

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