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Weather in Bethesda and Commodity Tips

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Information about Weather in Bethesda and Commodity Tips
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Published on February 20, 2014

Author: Sreelu42

Source: authorstream.com

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PowerPoint Presentation: We a t he r i n B e t he s d a and C ommo d i t y T ips Cr u d e Oil Late n i gh t (I S T) the API pub l i shed its i n v e n t o ry r eport wherein as p er Bl o o m b erg d ata, t h e a g ency said cr ud e st o cks f o r week en d ed 1 4th Fe b r u a r y fell b y 4 7 3 , 0 0 0 b ar r els w h i l e the d istil l ate s t o c k s d i p p ed l o w e r than ex p e ct ed b y 6 7 6, 00 0 b ar r els. T h e p o s i ti v i s m was tho ug h carr i ed f o rward b y t h e b etter d rop in C u sh i n g st o cks which d ecli n ed b y 1 . 8 Mln b ar r els taking the i m p act o f the sta r t o f t h e Tra n sCa n a d a C o r p ‘s o il fl o w fr o m t h e s t o r a g e hu b t o Texas re g io n . Wh i le ma r ke t s we r e m o r e b o thered a b o u t the effe c t o f o n g o i n g winter in the US they al s o l o o k ed for f u rther upd ates o n the i nv ent o r y fro n t f r o m t h e US D o E which w o u ld release its separ a te re p o rt t o d a y. As p er mar k et est i m a tes, c r ud e st o c kp i les are e xpec t ed to h a v e fa l len b y o ver 2 mi l l i o n b ar r els whi l e a simi l ar d rop in is also a n ti c i p ated o n the d istil l ate f r o n t. H o w e ver, af t er l o o ki n g at the API d ata, we f e el D o E d a t a mi gh t b e l o w o n p rovi d i n g a n y ma j o r p o s i t ive su rp rise t o the mark et s. P o sit i vi s m is l i ke l y to c o n ti nu e o n Cus h i n g part f o r t h e g o ver n ment bac k ed report as wel l . The major rea s o n b eh in d the rise in cr ud e p ri c es w as the n ear t erm w eat h er o u t l o o k. As p er a n e ws report f r o m B l o o m b erg, Presi d e n t o f ‘C om m o d i ti e s Weather in Bet h esda, Maryla nd ’ a we a ther c o n su l tan c y i n v o l ved in a g ric u lt u re a n d ener g y se c t o r which p r o vi d es s o l u t i o n s to cl i ents b ased o n weather ch ang es y est e r d ay said “ Te m p eratur e s ac r o ss the US will p l umm et thro ug h n ext w ee k , a n d t h e c o ld wi l l li n g er thro ug h t h e start o f M arc h ” . T h is a l o n g with u p d ated shor t - t erm winter f o r eca s t fr o m t h e US Clima t e Pred i ct i o n Ce n t re we r e crit i cal f o r t h e p o s i ti v e mo ment u m in cr ud e y esterd a y. O verall we a r e mai n tai n i n g o u r b r o ad bu l l ish b ias i n to the c o mm o d ity t h o ug h w o u ld b e circ u mspe c t a b o u t a n y m a j o r g ai n s c o mi n g i nt o p ri c es t o d ay. D u ri n g early m o r n i n g tra d e in A sia, we s a w C h i n e s e F l ash H S B C ma nu factur in g nu m b er a lso d isa p p o i n ti n g which is h avi n g m o d e r ate l y n e g ative i m p act o n the c o m m o d i t y in early s e ss i o n . C u m u lat i vel y , still we h o ld a p o siti v e b ias a n d rec o m mend bu yi n g o n d ecli n es f o r s mall tar g ets t o d ay Glo b al Mar k et A n alysi s : F e d released its mi n u t e s fr o m J a nu ary 2 8 - 29 F O MC m eeti n g a n d the p o i n ts are b it jittery. O n e o f the m o s t im p o rta n t p o i n ts that it n o ted w a s p o l i c y ma k ers b a cked o ff f r o m t h eir year- o ld c o mm i t m ent to c o n s i d er ra i si n g i n terest rates when un e m p l oy ment fa l ls b el o w 6. 5 %. The o ther im p o r tant p o i n t that was h i gh l igh ted was that the Central b a n k w o u ld c o n t i n u e to trim the b o n d pu rc h ase b y $ 1 0 Bi l l i o n un til a n d un less the Fed sees a h i gh ly n egative ch ang e in the ec o n o mic o u t l o ok . E v entu a l l y the US m ark e t p o sted a n egat i ve c l o se whi l e the US d o l l ar i n d ex g ai n ed m o d er a tely. B y lo o ki n g at the g l o b al a c ti v i ties, As i an ma r ke t s h a ve d ecli n ed sh a r p ly a n d tra d i n g d o wn b y m o r e than a p erce n t. Mea n whi l e, C h i ne se P MI n u m b er sh run k wh i ch also pu l l ed the ma r kets d o wn. C o mi n g to cr ud e o i l , A p ril f u ture N Y M EX c on tract is tra d i n g at $102 . 5 1 me r ely d o wn b y 0.3 1 %. We b elie v e so m u ch o f p rice c o rr e cti o n is seen n o w c o u ld b e b ecau s e o f l o w eri n g As i an s t o c ks whi l e t h e API i nv ent o r y su gg est a g oo d a m o un t o f d r a wd ow n o f o il s t o c ks. O veral l , the trend is still bu l l ish whi l e we w o u ld i n sist to b u y o n ly o n d i p s. T o n i gh t we h ave t h e D OE we e kly p e tr o l eum n u m b ers which mi gh t d e v e l o p a f r esh o u t l oo k o n o i l . We also b eli e ve o il may n o t b e s o l u cr a ti v e c o n tract t o tra d e t o d a y as i t i s al r eady tra d i n g at h i g h p rice. C o mm od i t y Ti p s SELL S I LVER MCX M A R NE A R 4 7 5 1 0 - 4 7 5 3 0 SL 4 7 8 00 T GT 4 7 0 00

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