VS Mod Presentation

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Published on June 19, 2007

Author: Arkwright26

Source: authorstream.com

The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model:  The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model Scott M. Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee Project web-site : www.atlss.org E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Overview:  Overview Purpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation Development/delivery schedule Availability Purpose of the vegetative succession model:  Purpose of the vegetative succession model Provide vegetative succession dynamics Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics : Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model. Application to restoration planning:  Application to restoration planning Provides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure Diversity : number of species, evenness Structure : tree islands Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other models Model features:  Model features Time step : 1 year Spatial scale : 500x500 meters Possibly finer if computationally feasible 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes Model response:  Model response The model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus Fire disturbance Response to disturbance is habitat type specific Model description:  Model description Space is broken into a set of discrete cells Cell model Starts with a habitat type: H0 Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions Cell model replicated in each discrete cell Cell Model:  Cell Model Allows for changes in cell habitat type Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions Order of events: Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change Determine the new habitat type for the cell Change in cell state:  Change in cell state H0 H1 H2 Hn P0 P1 P2 Pn … Change in cell state:  Change in cell state H0 H1 H2 Hn P0 P1 P2 Pn … Change in cell state:  Change in cell state H0 H1 H2 Hn P0 P1 P2 Pn … Change in transition probabilities:  Change in transition probabilities H0 H1 H2 Hn P0 P1 P2 Pn … E0 Change in transition probabilities:  Change in transition probabilities H0 H1 H2 Hn P0 P1 P2 Pn … E0 Et Slide14:  Status:  Status Currently: Estimation of model parameters is complete Paul Wetzel Conceptual frame work End year 2002: Working draft August 2003: Model finished, results available Publications Availability:  Availability Current plans Sun/Solaris environment C++/object oriented Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org Executables available to collaborating agencies Collaborators:  Collaborators Paul Wetzel Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP Contact information:  Contact information E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv

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