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Published on November 16, 2007

Author: Aric85

Source: authorstream.com

Slide1:  DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE The Sustainable Mobility Project Mobility 2030 Meeting the challenges to sustainability Overview Presented by Stephan Herbst, Volkswagen AG CEPS meeting, Brussels November 8, 2004 Global collaboration:  Global collaboration Mobility 2030:  Mobility 2030 Defines “sustainable mobility” and provides indicators for measuring it Provides a frank assessment of outlook if present trends continue Proposes seven goals for improving outlook Describes the potential contribution of vehicle technologies and fuels Identifies factors that ultimately will determine extent to which goals are realized Sustainable mobility:  Sustainable mobility The ability to meet the needs of society to move freely, gain access, communicate, trade and establish relationships without sacrificing other essential human or ecological values today or in the future. Indicators:  Indicators Access to mobility User costs Travel time Reliability and comfort Safety Security Greenhouse gas emissions Impact on environment and public well-being Resource use Impact on public revenues and expenditures Equity Implications Prospective rate of return to private business Mobility Providers Mobility Users Society as a whole Car ownership rate vs GDI per citizen :  Car ownership rate vs GDI per citizen Outlook if present trends continue “We can’t live without mobility; but can we live with it?”:  Outlook if present trends continue “We can’t live without mobility; but can we live with it?” Mobility 2030’s conclusion regarding outlook:  Mobility 2030’s conclusion regarding outlook When factoring in all the indicators, it appears that today’s system of mobility is not sustainable. Nor is it likely to become so if present trends continue. Mobility 2030, p. 58 Seven goals for improving the sustainability of mobility:  Seven goals for improving the sustainability of mobility Reduce conventional emissions from transport to levels where they do not constitute a significant public health concern anywhere in the world Limit GHG emissions from transport to sustainable levels Reduce the number of transport-related deaths and injuries worldwide Reduce transport-related noise Mitigate traffic congestion Narrow “mobility opportunity divides” Preserve and enhance mobility opportunities available to the general population 1. Reduce conventional emissions from transport Reference case projections:  1. Reduce conventional emissions from transport Reference case projections 2. Limit transport-related GHG emissions Reference case projections – major regional grouping:  2. Limit transport-related GHG emissions Reference case projections – major regional grouping Reference case projections – mode:  Reference case projections – mode Strategic elements are illustrated by “ASIF” identity:  Strategic elements are illustrated by “ASIF” identity Transport-related GHG emissions = A*S*I*F Activity (volume of passenger and freight travel) Structure (shares by mode, utilization factors, and vehicle type) Intensity (fuel use per unit of vehicle activity) Fuel type (GHG characteristics of fuel used) Determinants of “A” and “S” Transport demand characteristics – volume, mix, utilization:  Determinants of “A” and “S” Transport demand characteristics – volume, mix, utilization Determinants of “I” and “F” Vehicle and fuel characteristics – potential, rates of adoption, in-use performance:  Determinants of “I” and “F” Vehicle and fuel characteristics – potential, rates of adoption, in-use performance Reduce GHG emissions from transport:  Reduce GHG emissions from transport Goal | Assessment | Factors | Tools | Implementation Reduce GHG emissions from transport:  Reduce GHG emissions from transport Goal | Assessment | Factors | Tools | Implementation Mobility 2030’s conclusion::  Mobility 2030’s conclusion: Mobility can be made sustainable, but . . . There is no single “magic” technological solution; portfolio of solutions required It will take longer than three decades It will require coordinated efforts, starting now, by all elements of society – business, government, public It cannot be achieved without the active involvement of the developing world Further activities:  Further activities Unilateral: further company activities on several issues e.g. emissions, safety, access to mobility etc. Bilateral: further co-operations between companies e.g. fuel strategy Multilateral: Safety initiative with focus on developing world Continued modelling co-operation with IEA Broad societal dialogue Slide20:  Back up Focus of SMP members’ expertise:  Focus of SMP members’ expertise Road Transportation Call for action:  Call for action Important progress can be made during the next two or three decades. Prior to 2030, where economically practical and politically acceptable, SMP members believe that the following actions aimed at “bending the transport-related GHG emissions curve downward” should be undertaken: The energy efficiency of transport vehicles should be improved consistent with customer acceptance and cost-effectiveness. The technological foundation should be laid for the eventual elimination of the effects of fossil carbon in transport fuel.... Where new fuel infrastructures are required to permit the eventual elimination of the effects of fossil carbon in transport fuel, planning should be undertaken and, if practical, construction should begin. 3. Reduce transport-related deaths and injuries Reference case projections – by major regional grouping:  3. Reduce transport-related deaths and injuries Reference case projections – by major regional grouping Reference case projections – by region and country:  Reference case projections – by region and country Total road-related deaths Reference Case #1 Reference Case #2 Sharp regional differences exist in identity of victims:  Sharp regional differences exist in identity of victims Building blocks:  Building blocks Improve road infrastructure Separate road vehicles and vulnerable road users Change road user behavior Reduce DWI and speeding, increase use of helmets for operators and passengers of 2 & 3 wheelers, increase wearing of seat belts Improve safety characteristics of road vehicles Given differences in regional situations, emphasis necessarily will differ 4. Reduce transport-related noise:  4. Reduce transport-related noise Major elements:  Major elements Actions of vehicle operators Illegal modification of vehicles (especially powered two-wheelers) Illegal operation of vehicles Roadway design and maintenance Road barriers Noise-reducing road surfaces Smoothness of traffic flow Vehicle design 5. Mitigate Congestion Congestion is a growing problem nearly everywhere:  5. Mitigate Congestion Congestion is a growing problem nearly everywhere Not only in North America:  Not only in North America Two approaches:  Two approaches Reduce demand Reduce the number of vehicle trips through mode shifting, telecommuting, reduced distances between destinations Reduce peak demand through infrastructure pricing (e.g., London congestion charge; Singapore road pricing), ITS technologies, time shifting Increase capacity Build new infrastructure Increase the capacity of existing infrastructure through the use of dedicated lanes, additional lanes, infrastructure design improvements, minimization of delays and stops, increased traffic enforcement, and ITS-based traffic management systems Slide32:  Are a number of promising technological and policy tools, but ... Are formidable social and political barriers The challenge of “induced demand” Traffic congestion cannot be eliminated, but its effects can be mitigated 6. Narrow the most serious mobility opportunity divides :  6. Narrow the most serious mobility opportunity divides There is no reason to expect that people everywhere should require – or desire – identical mobility opportunities However, two categories of disparity in mobility opportunity that exist today – and that are projected to persist into the future – are so inconsistent with sustainable mobility that they must be narrowed Gap in mobility opportunities between wealthier and poorer regions:  Gap in mobility opportunities between wealthier and poorer regions (chart) Two approaches:  Two approaches Improve road infrastructure so people everywhere have access to all-weather roads Provide inexpensive, safe, clean mobility systems Concern about possible increases in GHG emissions should not be used as a reason to block such improvements Limited mobility opportunities available to certain disadvantaged groups even within “mobility rich” countries:  Limited mobility opportunities available to certain disadvantaged groups even within “mobility rich” countries Mobility opportunities available to certain groups in almost every country are limited The elderly The disabled The economically disadvantaged Certain disadvantaged racial and ethnic groups Deficit in mobility opportunities available to these groups contributes to their social and economic exclusion Two approaches:  Two approaches Where feasible, tailor “conventional” public transport services to meet the needs of these mobility-disadvantaged groups Increase use of alternatives to “conventional” public transport such as paratransit; utilize ITS technologies to improve the service characteristics and reduce the costs of these alternative systems 7. Preserve and improve mobility opportunities available to the general population:  7. Preserve and improve mobility opportunities available to the general population Importance of multimodality:  Importance of multimodality SMP’s accessibility indicator includes two forms of access: access to private motorized vehicles, and access to public transport having a certain minimum service quality (e.g., frequency) Reflects current importance of both private vehicles and public transport in providing personal mobility in urbanized Even where public transport is of very high quality, it generally cannot meet all personal mobility needs:  Even where public transport is of very high quality, it generally cannot meet all personal mobility needs Personal transport modal usage in Paris (Central Paris* and first ring**) Percent of respondents *Arrondissements I – XX ** Departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine Saint Denis, and Val de Marne Challenge becomes even greater once one moves outside the urban core and beyond trips to that core :  Challenge becomes even greater once one moves outside the urban core and beyond trips to that core Daily Trips by Mode in the Paris Region * * Ile de France region outside Central Paris and First Ring Can “conventional” public transport’s inherent technological limitations be overcome?:  Can “conventional” public transport’s inherent technological limitations be overcome? Historically, higher density urban areas have tended to make greater use of public transport This has led some to propose using incentives and/or penalties to force significant increases in urban density Questionable whether impact would be sufficient, what the cost would be, and how long it would take to show results While conventional public transport systems will continue to play a vital role, should develop new mobility systems:  While conventional public transport systems will continue to play a vital role, should develop new mobility systems Systems should combine flexibility provided by private vehicle with cost and efficiency characteristics of public transport Goal should be to fit characteristics of mobility systems to the needs and desires of people rather than the reverse Bus Rapid Transit systems Advanced paratransit Shared-use vehicle services (car sharing) Future fully automated systems Reference case emissions – by region and country:  Reference case emissions – by region and country Projected growth in personal transport activity:  Projected growth in personal transport activity

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