Published on March 4, 2014
VIX Fear Index www.CandlestickForums.com
The so called VIX fear index is in the news as the volume of put contracts on the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index rose to a level of three puts on each call contract. www.CandlestickForums.com
The CBOE Volatility Index itself is a measure of market expectation of coming price movement of the S&P 500 over the coming 30 days. www.CandlestickForums.com
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It uses a weighted measure of the prices of puts and calls in the S&P index as its base. www.CandlestickForums.com
The costs of buying puts and buying calls go up with expectation of market volatility and down when traders expect a more tranquil market. www.CandlestickForums.com
When the VIX fear index is high it is indicative of a volatile market. www.CandlestickForums.com
However, an extremely high VIX has often been seen before a market rally extending over a year. www.CandlestickForums.com
Thus the VIX fear factor is not always a fear factor and can be an indicator of better times for the stock market. www.CandlestickForums.com
Since 2006 it has been possible to trade options on the VIX itself. www.CandlestickForums.com
Options traders expecting to see the VIX fall are the ones buying puts on the so called fear index itself. www.CandlestickForums.com
Traders can trade the VIX directly but stock traders more commonly use the VIX fear index as a guide in helping predict market trends or a market correction. www.CandlestickForums.com
Traders using Candlestick analysis for technical analysis of stocks can use the so called VIX fear index as an adjunct to understanding and predicting changes in market sentiment. www.CandlestickForums.com
When the VIX fear index peaked recently, traders, expecting a fall from historic highs, bought puts on the index. www.CandlestickForums.com
Those trading the VIX fear index directly can use both fundamental and technical analysis. www.CandlestickForums.com
hose who simply use the so called VIX fear index as a guide will use the expectation of a decline in stock volatility into their calculations for future stock trading. www.CandlestickForums.com
The extreme stock price volatility and index volatility that the market has displayed recently seem to stem largely from concern about the potential economic effects of the European Union not solving its sovereign debt dilemma. www.CandlestickForums.com
Recent pronouncements by German and French leaders seem to have calmed the markets a little to which some credit to the likelihood of decreased market volatility. www.CandlestickForums.com
Considering how uncertain this situation still is traders will be well advised to keep up their Candlestick charts in order to accurately tap into market sentiment. www.CandlestickForums.com
As fundamentals are quickly discounted by the market traders use Japanese Candlestick charting to anticipate approaching price changes and buy stocks or sell stocks accordingly. www.CandlestickForums.com
Remember when using the VIX as a guide that the so called VIX fear index does not differentiate between a high volume of puts on the S&P 500 index which indicates a potentially falling market and a high volume of calls which indicates a potentially rising market. www.CandlestickForums.com
Also remember that calls and puts on the VIX index itself have to do with expectations of higher or lower volatility, not a higher or lower stock market. www.CandlestickForums.com
No matter what the so called VIX fear factor seems to tell us, traders using Candlestick pattern formations as a guide know that market sentiment can always change and that with Candlestick signals as a guide they can profit in both up and down markets. www.CandlestickForums.com
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