Urban mobility What Can We Learn from China

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Information about Urban mobility What Can We Learn from China
Business & Mgmt

Published on March 4, 2014

Author: FrostandSullivan



Urban Mobility What can we learn from China January 21st 2014

Current challenges in China’s urban cities are similar to the concerns in Europe Poor air quality Smog Decline in walking and bicycle using Noise Pollution According to the World Bank, 16 of the world’s 20 cities with the worst air are located in China Rapid industrial development Fast growing urban population Cities combining with suburbs to form region Insufficient public transportation linking cities and suburbs Increasing private car ownership and ridership Traffic congestion 80% of the roads and 90 % of the junction have almost reached capacity limit in Urban Chinese cities with >1 million inhabitants Increasing usage of motorcycles Road Safety Road fatalities at 62,387 in 2011 - 28% are motorcycle users Increasing disposable income Better payment terms to boost car purchase Parking - Beijing: 5.3 mn vehicles vs. 2.7 mn parking slots -Shanghai: 2.6 million vehicles vs. 780, 000 parking slots 2

Pollution Centre of concern in everyday life of China’s growing urban population Only 1% of China’s 560 urban cities reach WHO’s safety norms for air quality Drivers low Impact Trend high Fast growing urban population Increased private car ownership and ridership Rapid industrial development Beijing, January 2013, central district seen from above in heavy smog • Vehicle emissions contribute 60% of air pollution in large cities 60% of particulate from heavy diesel-powered 22% of particulate from passenger vehicles • PM 2.5 reaches 4 times norm limits in major urban cities: 2010, more than 7,770 premature deaths were directly linked to PM 2.5 pollution in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Xi’an 3 times as high as traffic casualties Source: NASA Source: Greenpeace and Beijing University, 2010 3

Traffic Congestion The imbalance between rapid growing private car ownership and the slower pace of road construction has caused severe traffic congestion in China’s urban cities Drivers low high Impact Trend Fast growing urban population Increased private car ownership and ridership Imbalance between the fast growing traffic and the pace of road construction Insufficient public transportation both inside cities and linking cities and suburbs A 62-mile-long traffic jam on a highway leading to Beijing on its ninth day, 2010 • Private car ownership increased from 12 mn in 2003 to 93 mn in 2012 • Shanghai in the past decade: growth in private car ownership = 364 % increase in road capacity = 110% • Guangzhou in the past 5 years: road capacity increased 2% while the number of motor vehicles has more than doubled • Beijing: 21-23 km/h during rush hours 4

Road Safety Combining insufficient traffic management with inexperienced drivers and lax driving habits, China has become one of the biggest contributors to world’s traffic fatalities Drivers low high Impact Trend Inefficient regulation/management on vehicles and circulation: scooters, motorcycles and cars Inexperienced drivers due to loose execution on getting driving licenses Lax driving habits Scooters & bicycles circulate between passenger cars , going into different directions: very likely to cause traffic jam and road accident Inefficient public transportation Poor road conditions • With only 3% of the world’s vehicles, China accounts for 24% of the world’s traffic fatalities • Road fatalities at 62,387 in 2011: 28% are motorcycle users • In 2011, the mortality rate from traffic accidents was 8.7 per 100,000 people in urban areas September 2012, Shanghai: north-south and east-west traffic to each other and lack of traffic police to ease. Source: Dong Fang Daily • Traffic accidents cost the Chinese economy $21 billion a year. Source: WTO 5

Parking Private car ridership rise, along with the lack of regulations (on parking resources, prices, proper development) and lack of management have led to a nation wide parking shortage Drivers low high Impact Trend Insufficient laws on forcing property owners to provide adequate parking for cars, scooters, bicycles and delivery vehicles Insufficient management on parking lots An open-air car park in Tianjin City with 90 parking slots, 2010 Increased private car ownership and ridership • Severe parking shortage in large urban cities: Beijing:2.7 mn parking spaces (including 780 k in residential areas) vs. 5.3 mn motor vehicles in the city Shanghai: 780 k parking slots vs. 2.6 mn vehicles Chongqing: short 190 k parking spaces and the deficit is growing by 400 spaces / day Xi’an: a deficit of 400 k parking spaces Crowded road side parking with car parking inside a playground, Taiyuan city, 2010 • Parking fees likely account for more than 1/3 of the annual costs of owning a car for owners who must pay for parking. Source: People’s Daily, Xinhua News 6

7 major initiatives have been carried out by the Chinese government to on one hand reduce car foot print and on the other hand promote public and green transportation 1 Restriction on circulation Increased parking fees 4 Improved public transportation 5 Dedicated lanes for bus & bikes 6 Transport Management 2 3 Reduce car footprint Quota on new car plate license Government push for car electrification 7 Small vehicles Innovation 7

1 – Quota on new car plate license 4 cities in China have now implemented quota on new car plate licensing, some through a plate lottery, some through auctions even bidding resulted in the drop of car sales Transferability to European cities Initiatives Beijing Guangzhou Nationwide Beijing From 2011, new registration limited at 240,000 per year through license plate lottery From 2012, new registration limited at 120,000 per year. (50% license plate lottery including 10% green vehicles + 50% plate auction) 8 new cities intent to implement quota on new registration in 2014 By the end of 2017, total motor vehicle park at 6 mn (vs. 5.2 mn end of 2012) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Guangzhou Nationwide Beijing Beijing • Car sales dropped 30% in 2012 Car sales dropped 56% in 2012 • 60% mobility using public transportation in 2012 Car sales expected to drop approximately 400,000, which accounts for 2% of national sales ↓25% Total amount of pollutants emission from motor vehicle Results Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking 8

2 - Restriction on circulation Most tier 1 & 2 cities limited motorcycle use due to safety & environmental concerns. Some also limited car use released the traffic and decreased the pollution level for short-term. Initiatives Nationwide Beijing Motorcycle authorized Restriction of motorcycle circulation in most urban cities Car Use Restriction based on odd and even-numbered license plates (during certain periods) Motorcycle limited (by time period, areas and license) Results Foshan: Weigh of motorcycle in urban mobility dropped from 38.6% to 19.7% Guangzhou: • ↓20% accidents related to motorcycles, • ↓8% related death Kunming: ↓35% death related to motorcycles Motorcycle banned in central areas and/or stopped releasing license Electric Scooters banned or limited Harbin Car circulation limited Changchun Urumqi Hohhot Beijing Beijing During restriction period in 2009: • Traffic volume ↓19.5% • Average speed on road network ↑15% Shenyang Dalian Tianjin Shijiazhuang Qingdao Jinan Xining Jiangsu Lanzhou Zhengzhou Xi’an Nanjing Shanghai HefeiSuzhou Wuhan Chengdu Hangzhou Chongqing Wenzhou Nanchang Yinchuan Taiyuan Changsha Guiyang • PM10 emission ↓7% Kunming Nanning Guangzhou Zhuhai Fuzhou Xiamen Guangdong Shenzhen Haikou Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking 9

3 – Increased parking fees Beijing has tripled its parking price in 13 central districts through out a policy carried out in April 2011. Reduced parking usage and traffic volume after first month of implementation. Initiatives Results Beijing Beijing Started in April 2011 charge higher parking fees in non-residential areas from 7am-9pm: 1st month of implementation: Parking price in central areas (price/hr in yuan) • Traffic volume ↓12% on average • ↓25-35 minutes traffic jam in central areas Underground Parking 5 Before 6 After Open-air Ground Parking 5 Before 8 After Roadside Parking 5 • Usage of car parking ↓23% Before 15 (from the 2nd hour) After Parking fee paid per car / day raised to 100-150 yuan Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking 10

4 – Improved public transportation The initiatives to improve public transportation not only include building new infrastructures but also increasing convenience in links between different public transportation modes •Intercity Trains •Intercity Buses •Bicycle •Bus •Metro •Tramway •Bicycle •Suburb buses •Suburb trains City Suburbs Intercity Travel distance Initiatives Results Beijing •7 new subway lines between 2009-2012 • 16 subway lines in 2012 covering 397 km (+50% compared to 2009) •153 new bus lines between 2009-2012 • Metro + Bus accounts for 39.7% of mobility methods in 2012, compared to 29.8% in 2005 Hangzhou • Number of bicycle rent has doubled in 4 years 2009 (3.5 mn / year) vs. 2012 (7 mn / year) Bicycle stands next to subway entrances & bus stops • Bicycle rent helped reduce CO2 emission to ease commute between residence 370 k tonne saving from 2009-2012 if and the closest public transportation compared with private car ride Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking 11

5 – Dedicated lanes for buses & bikes Traffic management has been improved by prioritising buses with dedicated lanes and by separating motor vehicles from non-motor vehicles. BRT in Kunming City Bikes and Scooters Bus Lane Initiatives Results • Installed dedicated lane for buses to prioritise public transportation ease traffic management Kunming (first Chinese city to install dedicated bus lane, in 1999) • 14 urban cities in China now have developed BRT systems Public transit mode share increased from 6% (1999) to 24% (2010). Average waiting time for bus ↓59% The bus lane increased capacity from 2,000 passengers/h per direction to 7,500 • 5 on the plan Pollution Transferability to European cities Congestion Road Safety Parking 12

6 – Government push for car electrification Green vehicles have been promoted by the government through subsidiaries & tax reductions However, it hasn’t been effective to push the individual purchase of EVs Initiatives Results Transferability to European cities Governmental objective in the develop • By 2012, 80% of bus are electric of EVs • Sales of green vehicles the first half of 2013 By 2015, the sales of electric & hybrid vehicles reaches 500,000 12,791 (with 11,375 electric) (5-year-plan 2011-2015) less than 1% of total vehicle sales Incentives and tax reductions To promote EV sales To ease R&D of EV industry and industries supporting this matter (such as battery suppliers) Pollution Incentives on purchase of green vehicle are implemented in urban cities (Shanghai, Changchun, Shenzhen, Hefei, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, etc) Congestion Up to 60,000 yuan per vehicle for 100% electric passenger cars Road Safety Parking 13

7 – Small vehicles Many automotive constructors see opportunities in small vehicles in China due to severe pollution, congestion and parking shortage Initiatives Governmental Governmental Industrial 2-year-long tax reduction program for purchase of 1.6L and below passenger cars Vehicle purchasing tax at 5% (2009) and 7.5% (2010) instead of 10% 3000 yuan state subsidy to owners of 1.6L and below passenger cars that consume 20% less energy than the current standard • Vehicle constructors see rising opportunities in small vehicles in China due to high level of pollution and congestion, as well as increasing parking shortage 2009 2010 2011 • Toyota, Dongfeng, Ford, Nissan, VW etc intend to increase proportion of small vehicles in their product portfolio in China to reduce emission and promote energy saving 2012 2013 2014 2015 Results Increased sales of 1.6L and below passenger cars in 2009-2010: In 2009, ↑71% sales volume, reaching 7.2 mn units Toyota China released in 2013 a small car strategy: A New VIOS and Toyota YARIS was released =70% of total passenger car sales, reaching its highest market share in history Pollution Congestion Road Safety GAC Toyota plans to sell 500,000 units in 2015, of which 40% are small & medium cars Parking 14

Conclusion Solutions from China European Countries Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking Good Currently Transferable idea? exists 1 Quota on new vehicle purchase Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking x 2 Restriction on circulation Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking x 3 Increased parking fees Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking √ 4 Improve public transportation Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking √ 5 Dedicated lane for bus & bikes Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking √ 6 Government push for car electrification Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking √ 7 Small vehicles Pollution Congestion Road Safety Parking √ 15

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