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Urata 6 2 06

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Published on October 22, 2007

Author: Nellwyn

Source: authorstream.com

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A Shift from Market-driven to Institution-driven Regionalization in East Asia:  A Shift from Market-driven to Institution-driven Regionalization in East Asia June 2, 2006 Shujiro URATA Waseda University I. Introduction:  I. Introduction * Recent developments in the World Economy: Globalization and Regionalization * Two drivers of regionalization: Market mechanism Regional institution (Free trade agreements) * The purpose of the paper: examine the changing characteristics of regionalization in East Asia (ASEAN+3) with a focus on international trade and foreign direct investment and derive the implications II. Changing Pattern of Foreign Trade in East Asia:  II. Changing Pattern of Foreign Trade in East Asia 1. Expansion of intra-regional trade (Table 1) * The importance of China for other East Asian countries increased in foreign trade (Table 2) * The importance of East Asia for East Asian countries except China increased in trade * South Asia accounts for a small part of East Asia’s trade Intra-regional Trade (%):  Intra-regional Trade (%) Slide5:  2. Rapid expansion of Machinery trade * Especially, electrical and electronic products (Table 3) * Commodity composition of trade became similar among East Asian countries and for exports and imports (Table 4) Changing Composition of East Asia’s Trade (%):  Changing Composition of East Asia’s Trade (%) Slide7:  3. Expansion of intra-industry trade * For the machinery sector (Table 7) * Vertical intra-industry trade (Table 8) 4. Large share of parts trade in intra-regional trade in East Asia (Table 9) * East Asia is a factory of the world * Inter-process division of labor (fragmentation of production process) Intra-industry trade index :  Intra-industry trade index Types of Intra-industry trade in East Asia (%):  Types of Intra-industry trade in East Asia (%) Share of Parts in Overall Trade (%):  Share of Parts in Overall Trade (%) III. Foreign Direct Investment:  III. Foreign Direct Investment * Rapid expansion of FDI inflows to East Asia since the mid-1980s: major recipients, NIEs → ASEAN4 → China, Vietnam →India (?) * Intra-regional FDI, not notable compared to foreign trade (Table 10) * Concentration in electric and electronics (Table 11) FDI Inflows as a Proportion to Domestic Capital Formation (%):  FDI Inflows as a Proportion to Domestic Capital Formation (%) Sectoral Distribution of FDI Inflows (%):  Sectoral Distribution of FDI Inflows (%) IV. Foreign Trade by Multinational Corporations (MNCs) : The Case of Japanese MNCs:  IV. Foreign Trade by Multinational Corporations (MNCs) : The Case of Japanese MNCs 1. Geographical Orientation * Strong export orientation by MNCs in East Asia * Strong reliance on East Asia in both exports and imports (Table 12) 2. High share of intra-firm trade (Table 13) 3. Creation of Regional Production Network by Japanese MNCs Geographical Allocation of Trade by Japanese MNCs in East Asia:  Geographical Allocation of Trade by Japanese MNCs in East Asia Share of Intra-firm trade in overall trade (%): 2001:  Share of Intra-firm trade in overall trade (%): 2001 V. The Factors Behind Rapid Expansion of Intra-Regional Trade, Creation of Regional Production Networks:  V. The Factors Behind Rapid Expansion of Intra-Regional Trade, Creation of Regional Production Networks * Trade and FDI Liberalization Unilateral Multilateral * Technical progress in communication and transportation services → Reduce the cost of conducting trade and FDI Tariff Rates (unweighted, %):  Tariff Rates (unweighted, %) VI. Institution-driven Regionalization:  VI. Institution-driven Regionalization 1. Frameworks * Regional and Bilateral FTAs (Table 15) #East Asia FTA (under study) #Special characteristic: Comprehensiveness (trade/FDI liberalization and facilitation, economic assistance) * Monetary cooperation (Chaing Mai Initiative, Asian Bond market) 2. Reasons * Asian currency crisis * Expansion of FTAs in other parts of the world * Little progress in Doha Round under the WTO * WTO+α (new areas such as movement of natural persons, FDI, economic assistance, etc) * Rivalry (Japan, China, ASEAN, Korea) FTAs in Action and Negotiation in East Asia:  FTAs in Action and Negotiation in East Asia Slide22:  3. Expected Impacts * Positive impacts for FTA members +Increase in intra-regional trade (Table 16) + Promote economic growth (Table 17) + Increase mutual understanding * Negative impacts + Low quality FTAs discourage trade: complicated rules of origin + Spaghetti bowl + Distract resources away from WTO negotiations + Negative impacts on non-members VII. Concluding Comments:  VII. Concluding Comments * Rapid economic growth of East Asia: FDI played an crucial role by creating regional production networks * India has not been successful in attracting FDI + Problems (Survey by Japan Bank for International Cooperation, 2005) # Underdeveloped infrastructure # Lack of transparency in rules and regulations # Lack of information * For East Asia, to maintain growth momentum, avoid closed regionalism: High-quality FTAs (WTO consistency, broad coverage, simple ROOs, etc)

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