Published on November 22, 2016
1. Understanding Uncertainty Gaining the Global Perspec2ve RCA | London | 28 November 2016 The world’s leading open foresight program
5. Alternate Paths
7. Foresight vs. Insight
8. Inside-‐Out and Outside-‐In
9. Shell GameChanger | Technology Futures 2004/7
10. Seeing Beyond the Now
11. Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program. Run as a global NFP dialogue across all con2nents, it accesses mul2ple views of the next decade so we can all be beSer informed and so s2mulate innova2on.
12. RCA IDE Projects 2010
13. 2010 Event Loca2ons
14. Hal3ng Alzheimer's Stopping mental degrada2on from Alzheimer’s makes quality ageing more possible by improving cogni2on and slowing the rate of decline
15. Lease Everything Rising sustainability impera2ves and increasing cost of ownership shiZ the balance from ownership to access and we prefer to rent than buy
16. Solar Sunrise Increasing governmental focus on energy security and climate change drives the uptake of large-‐scale solar as the leading renewable supply
17. Mega City States Increasing compe22on between ci2es over-‐rides na2onal priori2es as mayors lead bold ini2a2ves to place their ci2es at the forefront of the global stage
18. Drone Wars Intelligent UAVs choose their vic2ms themselves as the race for more focused military inﬂuence leads to the prolifera2on of assassina2on tools
19. Outcomes Vodafone curated the ‘mobile’ ﬁlter view while many other organisa2ons around the world variously used the insights and pla`orm to iden2fy new innova2on opportuni2es, challenge strategic assump2ons and develop thought-‐leadership
20. Future Agenda 2.0 The ﬁrst Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in 25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac2on and signiﬁcantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion. Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
21. 2015 Event Loca2ons
22. Future Agenda 2.0 Topics Ci2es Educa2on Learning Transport Collabora2on Energy Loyalty Travel Company Faith Payments Water Connec2vity Food Privacy Wealth Currency Government Resources Work Ageing Data Health Trade
23. Imbalanced Popula3on Growth A growing popula2on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra2on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra2os challenge many.
24. Key Resource Constraints Economic, physical and poli2cal shortages of key resources increase and drive increasing tension between and within countries. As we exceed the Earth’s natural thresholds, food and water receive as much focus as oil and gas.
25. ShiSing Power and Inﬂuence The centre of gravity of economic power con2nues shiZing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali2es of popula2on and resource loca2ons are immoveable.
26. The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more interna2onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between protec2on, security, privacy and public good is increasingly poli2cal.
27. Autonomous Vehicles The shiZ to fully autonomous transport is an evolu2on via truck platoons on highways and small urban delivery pods. Connected cars create the network and test the technologies for the eventual revolu2onary driverless experience.
28. Accelera3ng Displacement Climate change, conﬂict, resource shortages, inequality and poli2cal elites unable or unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra2on to the North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
29. Companies with Purpose As trust in ‘business’ declines, structures and prac2ces of large corpora2ons are under scru2ny. Businesses come under greater pressure to improve performance on environmental, social and governance issues.
30. Eco-‐Civilisa3on Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for long-‐term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.
31. Future Innova3on Opportuni3es
32. Selec3on Criteria We have chosen those areas that meet three criteria: being global / mul2 regional in impact, s2ll requiring signiﬁcant progress and having the poten2al to create new value. Global or Mul2 Regional Impact Poten2al to Create New Value S2ll Require Signiﬁcant Progress
33. Reducing Air Pollu3on Rising air pollu2on in many ci2es is already killing people. It will become a visible catalyst for changing mind-‐sets and policies across health, energy, transporta2on and urban design.
34. Providing Basic Sanita3on Poor sanita2on con2nues to impact public health and restrict social progress, par2cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa2ons priori2se measurement, educa2on and innova2on in a bid to drive change.
35. Minimising Food Waste 30-‐50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump2on and could feed another 3 billion. Op2mising distribu2on and storage in developing countries and enabling beSer consumer informa2on in others could solve this.
36. Delivering Aﬀordable Healthcare The escala2ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori2es.
37. Driving the Educa3on Revolu3on Broader access to improved educa2on acts as a major catalyst for empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conﬂict. We need an educa2on system ﬁt for the digital revolu2on.
38. True Value of Clean Water As water stress impacts 40% of the world, we will have to pay the true value for this key resource. In a more water-‐conscious world, the cost of water is recognised, full water footprints are measured and companies signiﬁcantly reduce consump2on.
39. Suppor3ng Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re2rements. Flexible working prac2ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con2nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
40. Building Data Marketplaces Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything that is informa2on is represented in a new data marketplace.
41. Inves3ng in Nature’s Capital In the Anthropocene, humankind is presiding over the Earth's sixth major ex2nc2on. But as biodiversity declines, nature becomes increasingly valued and valuable.
42. Governance of Machines Automa2on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
43. More Informa2on and Insights www.futureagenda.org hSp://tmiltd.com/products/future-‐agenda hSp://www.slideshare.net/futureagenda2
44. Future Agenda 84 Brook Street London W1K 5EH +44 203 0088 141 futureagenda.org The world’s leading open foresight program What do you think? Join In | Add your views into the mix www.futureagenda.org