Published on October 16, 2008
GLOBAL WIND POWER Michael Totten, Conservation International TNC Wind Power Workshop Jan. 24, 2007
Normative Criteria 1. Optimizing the delivery of efficient energy services at or near the point of use as the key goal, rather than simply expanding ever-larger resource supplies shipped over ever-longer distances at ever-higher expense; 2. Environmentally and ecologically friendly and avoiding adverse impacts (to terrestrial, freshwater, marine ecosystems); 3. Economically attractive now, with massive growth opportunity in the foreseeable future (speed facilitated by well-crafted incentives, R&D, policies and regulations); 4. Low-risk, risk-resistant and risk-manageable — against inflation, price spikes, sudden disruptions, acts of nature or malicious attack; 5. Resilient — if the energy system (water, transport) fails, it fails gracefully, not catastrophically, and is rapidly recoverable; 6. Enhancing climate, air and water quality; 7. Resulting in minimal adverse impacts and capable of further reducing those externalities through continuous innovation and best practices; and 8. Robust experience curves — potential for significant, ongoing improvements in cost, performance, reduced footprint, generation of positive externalities, etc., through ongoing R&D and cumulative learning experiences.
WIND 1 to 2% of the sun’s energy is converted into wind energy. 50 to 100X more energy than converted into biomass by all plants on earth.
Global Power Investment will Misallocate Half of $48 Trillion – to the detriment of customers • Over 30-year lifespan of these power plants consumers will pay $48 trillion (at 5¢/kWh) TWh Projected World Electricity (billion kWh) Generation 2030 • Alternatively, investing in lower cost efficiency 14,000 improvements in the manufacturing of high 12,000 coal efficiency appliances, consumer electronics, lights, natural motors, buildings, etc. could save $24 trillion of 10,000 gas this projected growth 8,000 • Money left in customers wallets by avoiding higher utility bills 6,000 large • Money spent on retail purchases of a myriad of 4,000 hydro high efficiency devices nuclear other renews • Dramatic reduction of CO2 emissions (potentially 2,000 oil one-fourth of 2030 global energy emissions) as an ancillary co-benefit of efficiency gains - Source: Intl Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004
Less Utility Power Plants through More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs” Less Coal Power Plants $ Less Coal Rail Cars Less Coal Mines
Avoided Emissions & Savings Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP) (1.8 billion kWh per year) Eliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coal Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2 Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2 Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals Avoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge Saves 45 billion gallons waters Accrues $67.5 million annual savings Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per year  Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, www.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdf T T
Biggest Retail EPP of Them All: Supplier Chain Factories & Products Demand - Facts Outcomes Industrial electric motor 2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal to systems consume 40% of 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 electricity worldwide – over 7 worldwide. trillion kWh per year. $240 billion savings per decade, freed up Motors consume 60% of China’s from the utility sector by capturing this total electricity, 50% in USA. super mega-EPP in manufacturing facilities. Efficiency savings of 30% or more highly cost-effective. $200 to $400 billion savings per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx. Support SEEEM (Standards SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive for Energy Efficiency of market transformation strategy to promote efficient Electric Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Megadamus negavitae 7% of total global GHG emissions, rising to 15% given potential expansion
Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with Combined Cycle Natural Gas Km2/ MW Emissions: Emissions: Reservoir Generating Emissions Hydro CC Gas DAM Area Capacity (vs Ratio (MtCO2- (MtCO2- (km2) (MW) wind eq/yr) eq/yr) Hydro/Gas 0.1) Tucuruí 24330 4240 5.7 8.60 2.22 3.87 Curuá- 72 40 1.8 0.15 0.02 7.50 Una Balbina 3150 250 12.6 6.91 0.12 57.58 Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004
Freshwater Fish Species Threatened % Fish species 8 times more threatened than mammals or birds in the USA
NUCLEAR POWER? The fascination with nuclear power is due to the fact that 1 ton of uranium can displace 20,000 tons of coal
Unfortunately, uranium-generated electricity carries some intrinsic downsides that are inherently intractable: 1) Ever-present target of nuclear facilities for military or terrorist attack; 2) Dual civilian-military nature of a nuclear reactor; 3) Proliferation of weapons-grade material; 4) Diversion of uranium fuel for military or terrorist use in fabricating atomic bombs; 5) Contaminant fuel wastes that remain radioactive for millennia; and, 6) Generating systems that can fail catastrophically, with disastrous human health and ecological consequences lasting for generations, and economic impacts lasting for centuries Displacing coal use worldwide by 2100 would require constructing a 100 MW nuclear reactor every 10 hours for the entire century. It would require reprocessing weapons-grade plutonium for use in breeder reactors by 2050. This would produce 5 million kilograms of plutonium per year, equal to 500,000 atomic bombs, annually circulating in global commerce.
In the USA, cities and residences cover 140 million acres. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying PV to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. We wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
Global Wind Speed extrapolated to 80 meter height averaged over all days of 2000 at sounding locations with >20 valid readings. 72 TW global wind power generated at locations with mean annual wind speeds 6.9 m/s at 80 m. 20% captured could satisfy 100% of world energy demand for all purposes, and >7X world electricity needs (in 2000). Source: Archer & Jacobson, Evaluation of Global Wind Power, Journal Of Geophysical Research, V. 110, 2005.
Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) www.gwec.net
Global Cumulative Wind Power 1995-2005 (MW & TWh) 124 TWh For context: 18,000 TWh of global electricity generated in 2005 from all sources, including 2,800 TWh from nuclear and 2,800 from hydro. Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Global Cumulative Wind Power 2005-2050 (MW & TWh) 7,900 TWh 6,900 TWh 5,200 TWh 2,600 TWh 124 340 TWh TWh Advanced Scenario Assumptions: 20% annual growth, progress ratio 0.90 to 0.98, global capacity factor 30%, 1/3rd of global electricity (w/ high efficiency). Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Regional Breakdown: Advanced Scenario [GW] Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Wind Power Advanced Scenario INVESTMENT: By 2030, annual investment value of the wind energy market would be $110 billion. GENERATION COSTS: By 2020, a good site would be 4 to 5 ¢/kWh, and a low average wind site 5 to 7.7 ¢/kWh. EMPLOYMENT: By 2030, 1.4 million jobs, and 2.8 million by 2050. CO2 SAVINGS: By 2030, 3.1 billion tons per year, increasing to 4.7 billion tons per year by 2050. [Total CO2 in 2006 ~8 billion tons] Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario In 2005 China reset 2020 wind target to 30 GW. An increase of 10 GW from the goal of just a year earlier. Raises annual growth rate from 20% to 24%. Wind industry experts are confident that 170 GW is achievable by 2020, and 330 GW by 2030. The required 39% annual growth rate is feasible, they argue, IF utility pricing policies can be reformed.
CHINA Advanced Wind Scenario NREL wind mapping of vast areas of eastern China at 50-m height found 4% of the mapped LAND area could support 580 GW at a conservatively estimated 5 MW/km2(good-to-excellent wind resources). NREL estimates windy MARINE sections could support >660 GW, and 4X this figure Including moderate wind resources. More studies are required to accurately assess the wind potential, considering shipping lanes, water depth, existing transmission grid and accessibility.
Brazil Advanced Wind Potential Rio Grande do Sul Simulations, performed in 1999 by CEPEL (Brazil’s Electric Energy Research Center), estimate a Brazilian wind potential of 144 GW. This assumes average wind velocities of more than 7m/s, only on-shore, using wind turbines of 600 kW. The Brazilian Center of Wind Energy (CBEE) indicates wind power generation is between 4 and 8.4 ¢/kWh. Yet, only 28 MW installed by 2005, and 200 MW by 2006. Wind Energy ATLAS of Brazil, Atlas do Potencial Eólico Brasileiro, Antonio Leite de Sá, Electric Energy Research Center – CEPEL, DEWI (German Institute of Wind Energy), Magazine 19, Aug. 2001. Wind Economics, CBEE, www.eolica.com.br/index_ing.html
Brazil Advanced Wind Potential Along the 630 km coastline of Rio Grande do Sul there are 986 km2 of sand and dunes, fanned by intense and constant winds. winter fall Also inland, many winds come together with the Minuano to create one of the most promising sources of wind power in Brazil. Between 55GW and 115 GW is available for areas with winds summer spring >7.0m/s, at heights 75m and 100m, respectively. Rio Grande do Sul Wind Energy ATLAS of the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, Secretariat of Energy, Mines and Communications
Rio Grande do Sul Wind Potential The 55-115 GW of estimated wind power for Rio Grande do Sul is relatively high. The total Brazilian hydro resources (inventoried plus estimated) is 143 GW, and Brazil’s total installed capacity was 77 GW in 2001. Source: Rio Grande do Sul Wind Atlas, http://www.semc.rs.gov.br/atlas/ENGandiag.htm
US wind power capacity end of 2002 (MW)
Source: Global Wind Energy Council, Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, Sept. 2006, www.gwec.net/
Of the practically exploitable U.S. wind resources of moderate or better quality, 95% are located in the sparsely populated 12 Great Plains states, where the generation potential is 3X total U.S. electricity generation.
Figures of Merit Great Plains 1,200,000 mi2 100% U.S. electricity 400,00 wind turbines Platform footprint 6 mi2 Large Wyoming Strip Mine >6 mi2 Total Wind farm area 37,500 mi2 34,000 mi2 still available farming-ranching-prairie CO2 U.S. electricity sector 40%
1. Unsuitable – lands where development is prohibited (Appalachian Trail corridors, for example) or quot;high conflictquot; areas 2. Less than ideal – federal or state conservation lands rated quot;medium conflictquot; 3. Conditionally favorable – Conservation or open space lands rated quot;low conflict,quot; or open space or private lands rated quot;medium conflictquot;: 4. Most favorable – Unrestricted private land and quot;low conflictquot; areas Although agriculture controls about 70% of the land area in all three sub-regions of the Great Plains (Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas), the contribution of agriculture to the Gross Regional Product in very small. Agriculture is very important in the region for many reasons, but it is not a major player in the regional economy compared to other industries. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income US Farm Revenues per hectare Crop revenue Govt. subsidy non-wind farm Wind profits windpower farm $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 [Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April
Potential Synergisms 2 additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains: 1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market); 2) Re-introducing free- ranging bison into these prairie grasslands -- which naturally co-evolved together for millennia - - generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef. Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered Droughts
Water Use in Energy Production Water Consumption (liters per MWh) 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 Wind turbine Solar-electric combined cycle coal-fired nuclear
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