Published on March 11, 2014
The World This Week Feb 03 – Feb 08, 2014
Equity View: The US data on employment numbers this month showed muted results against expectations. The unemployment rate has gone down to 6.6% which is the lowest since 2008 but, is essentially because a lot of people have moved out of the employment space completely rather than a recovery. The number following this month would lead to concerns on whether the US recovery is actually as strong as expected previously. This would also be a key input for the monetary policy and the tapering of QE in the months to come. Domestically, the FY14 GDP data estimates a recovery in the H2 of this year at 5.2% which is higher than expectations. This would take the full year GDP growth to 4.8% vs. 4.5% in FY13, which is a mild recovery. This increase in GDP growth is essentially on the back of higher agricultural production and higher exports as compared to FY13. We believe that the Manufacturing sector will show some signs of growth going forward. In terms of Capex and infrastructure activity, some kind of activation for large projects could be seen with more and more government projects getting cleared. This would help the infrastructure sector grow in future. The RBI estimates the GDP growth to be 5.5% For FY15 which we believe is a very conservative number looking at the current state of affairs. News: DOMESTIC MACRO: The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by Markit, rose to 48.3 in January from 46.7 in December. India last week, cut its estimate of annual growth for the fiscal year to 4.9 percent from 5 percent because of a contraction in the manufacturing and mining sectors. Finance minister of India, Mr. Chidambaram has asked regulators to introduce a common demat account for financial assets. Consumption, which contributes about 70 percent to the near $1.8-trillion economy, is expected to grow 4.4 percent in fiscal 2013/14, down from 5.2 percent the previous year.
GLOBAL MACRO EURO The European Central Bank will attain significant powers over the euro zone's commercial banks once it becomes their supervisor later this year, including withdrawing bank licenses and assessing acquisitions. The ECB has a euro zone inflation target of just fewer than 2 percent. Non-performing loans at Italian banks, the ones least likely to ever be repaid, have reached 150 billion Euros and are expected to keep rising through 2016. United States U.S. manufacturing activity slowed sharply in January on the back of the biggest drop in new orders in 33 years. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 51.3 last month, its lowest level since May 2013, from 56.5 in December. The unemployment rate hit a new five-year low of 6.6 percent in January. China The Markit/HSBC manufacturing PMI fell to a six-month low of 49.5 in January, suggesting the overall factory sector contracted from December. Indices: Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck 3/2/2014 20,209 6,257 11,351 11,554 5,518 9,405 6,457 10,221 9,321 8,872 8,351 1,505 1,186 5,080 4/2/2014 20,212 6,282 11,416 11,659 5,544 9,419 6,508 10,158 9,155 8,828 8,341 1,515 1,193 5,030 5/2/2014 20,261 6,311 11,602 11,695 5,542 9,439 6,449 10,173 9,242 8,969 8,318 1,529 1,212 5,061 6/2/2014 20,311 6,300 11,701 11,668 5,598 9,352 6,537 10,165 9,227 9,052 8,321 1,536 1,193 5,061 7/2/2014 20,377 6,337 11,791 11,743 5,593 9,402 6,505 10,337 9,169 9,293 8,328 1,548 1,205 5,032 0.83% 1.27% 3.88% 1.63% 1.35% -0.03% 0.73% 1.13% -1.63% 4.74% -0.28% 2.89% 1.61% -0.94%
Commodities and Currency: Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms) 3/2/2014 62.69 102.97 84.58 61.41 6648 29676 4/2/2014 62.68 101.98 84.78 62.12 6648 29774 5/2/2014 62.45 102.01 84.35 61.58 6630 29823 6/2/2014 62.50 101.92 84.50 61.59 6636 29797 7/2/2014 62.32 101.78 84.68 61.01 6700 29801 0.60% Rupee Appreciated 1.17% Rupee Appreciated -0.12% Rupee Depreciated 0.66% Rupee Appreciated -0.78% -0.42% Debt: Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week) 1-Year 8.76 -6 2-Year 8.66 -2 5-Year 8.83 -9 10-Year 8.69 -10
Satadru Mitra Varun Goel Jharna Agarwal Nupur Gupta Kinjal Doshi Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth (a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above- mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments Karvy Private Wealth (A division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) operates from within India and is subject to Indian regulations. Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. is a SEBI registered stock broker, depository participant having its offices at: 702, Hallmark Business plaza, Sant Dnyaneshwar Marg, Bandra (East), off Bandra Kurla Complex, Mumbai 400 051 . (Registered office Address: Karvy Stock Broking Limited, “KARVY HOUSE”, 46, Avenue 4, Street No.1, Banjara Hills, Hyderabad 500 034) SEBI registration No’s:”NSE(CM):INB230770138, NSE(F&O): INF230770138, BSE: INB010770130, BSE(F&O): INF010770131,NCDEX(00236, NSE(CDS):INE230770138, NSDL – SEBI Registration No: IN-DP-NSDL-247-2005, CSDL-SEBI Registration No:IN-DP-CSDL-305-2005, PMS Registration No.: INP000001512”
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