Published on March 12, 2014
DRAFT 00Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist0 The Labor Market Situation in February ― March 10, 2014 ― Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist U.S. Department of Labor Office of the Chief Economist
DRAFT 11Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist1 Payroll survey: stronger than expected 1-month change, in thousands • February 2014 162 • January 2014 145 • December 2013 86 12-month change, in thousands • January 2013 to 2014: 2,190 • Average: 183
DRAFT 22Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist2 But the longer trend still shows steady growth
DRAFT 33Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist3 Two employment surveys: CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS
DRAFT 44Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist4 Employment growth by super-sector this month
DRAFT 55Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist5 Employment growth by super-sector over the year
DRAFT 66Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist6 Unemployment ticked back up… January 2014 6.7% January 2014 6.6% December 2013 6.7% February 2013: 7.7%
DRAFT 77Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist7 …employment rate was flat February 2014: 58.8% January 2014: 58.8% December 2013: 58.6% February 2013: 58.6%
DRAFT 88Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist8 LFP has been essentially flat since October February 2014: 63.0% January 2014: 63.0% December 2013: 62.8% February 2013: 63.5%
DRAFT 99Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist9 Not in Labor Force -94,000 Not in Labor Force 84,856,000 Employed +42,000 Unemployed +223,000 More unemployed got jobs than dropped out Employed 139,093,000 Unemployed 5,895,000 2,145,000 2,524,000 other 12,000 other 281,000 other 96,000
DRAFT 1010Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist10 Long-term unemployment rate ticked back up, but remains highest since 1983 February 2014: 2.5% January 2014: 2.3% December 2013: 2.5% February 2013: 3.0%
DRAFT 1111Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist11 Summary of month Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth – Keeps up with population growth – Doesn’t do anything to employment rate Rise in long-term unemployed – Note: in recovery, expect short-term unemployed to get jobs first – Those short term that don’t, become long-term – But sign of change not consistent across duration, think random fluctuation
DRAFT 1212Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist12 Let’s talk about the weather!
DRAFT 1313Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist13 Let’s talk about the weather!
DRAFT 1414Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist14 Sectors we have been following + weather Construction – Dec: -22,000; Jan: +48,000; Feb: +15,000 – All adjustment happened in December? (Earlier start to seasonal layoffs) Found most of the accountants – Dec: -32,000; Jan: +5000; Feb: +16,000 Motion pictures continued volatile Retail – Dec: +63,000; Jan: -13,000; Feb: -4000 – Weather? Bounce-back from unusually high December? Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather; retail unclear For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs
DRAFT 1515Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist15 Weather and trend conclusions Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather Retail unclear, possibly underlying slowing For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs My guess: back to the steady but insufficient growth of pre-shutdown – Especially given downward revisions to GDP 4th Quarter
DRAFT 1616Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist16 Thank you!
DRAFT 1717Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist17 Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough
DRAFT 1818Filename/RPS Number Office of the Chief Economist18 Construction employment shrugged off weather (Perhaps seasonal layoffs simply occurred earlier than usual) 1-month change, in thousands • February 2014 15 • January 2014 50 • December 2013 -20 12-month change, in thousands • January 2013 to 2014: 152 • Average: 13
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