Published on February 24, 2014
To Na0onal Religious Broadcasters Nashville – February 24, 2014 The Great Disrup.on Three Digital Revolu0ons and Those Yet to Come Lee Rainie -‐ @lrainie Director, PRC Internet Project
Big points • We live in a world of “networked individuals” prac0cing “networked individualism” • Three technology revolu0ons have pushed along pre-‐exis0ng trends towards NI • People’s experience of media is orchestrated by their social networks and expanded by social media • The next technology revolu0ons are clearly evident now … so be prepared
1) We live in a world of “networked individuals” prac0cing “networked individualism”
Networked Individualism The move to looser, far-‐ﬂung networks
Personal networks are: More important – trust, inﬂuence awareness Diﬀerently composed – segmented, layered Perform new func.ons – sentries, evaluators, audience
But it is not just technological story Other drivers are changes in … Iden.ty shiIs – star.ng with religion & poli.cs Family life changes Business structures & labor shiIs Transporta.on & living paMerns … then comes technology
2) Three technology revolu0ons have pushed along pre-‐exis0ng trends towards networked individualism
First: Internet and broadband Internet adop0on 1995-‐2014
First: Internet and broadband Broadband adop0on 2000-‐2013 Dial-‐up Broadband 100% 70% 80% 60% 40% 3% 20% 0% June 2000 April March March April March March March April 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 April 2009 May 2010 Aug 2011 April 2012 May 2013
Second: Wireless connec0vity Mobile – 90% … smartphone 58% … tablets 42% 326.4 Total U.S. popula.on: 319 million 2013
Third: Social media 61% of all adults 18-‐29 100% 30-‐49 50-‐64 65+ % of internet users 89% 78% 80% 60% 60% 43% 40% 20% 9% 7% 0% 6% 2005 1% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3) People’s experience of media is orchestrated by their social networks and expanded by social media
Impacts • Informa0on ﬂows change – my network, my playlist • Shibing 0me and acen0on • Changed rela0onships to larger ins0tu0ons (including media organiza0ons) – Every organiza0on a media company and a node – Every individual a brand • Amateurs rise to sit alongside and some0mes challenge experts • Conversa0ons and disputes are much more drawn out
4) The next technology revolu0ons are clearly evident now … so be prepared
th revolu0on +++ 4 • Internet fades into the environment as the “internet of things” expands and “big data” mushrooms • Interfaces change – gesture, voice • Personal connec0vity grows • Search expands to all media • Surveillance takes new forms • Personal empowerment develops (3D prin0ng) – Maker culture
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