The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality

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Information about The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality
Technology

Published on January 9, 2009

Author: stephenmcclelland

Source: slideshare.net

Description

Discusses the increasing sophistication of network deployment strategies in the broadband age

The Evolution of Broadband: From Coverage to Quality Robert Pepper Vice President Global Technology Policy 3 November 2008

Four Stages of National Broadband Discussion Availability/Coverage (supply) Adoption (demand) “ Speed” Quality

Availability/Coverage (supply)

Adoption (demand)

“ Speed”

Quality

Communications: From telephony to connectivity/broadband Networks: the Fourth Essential Infrastructure Transport IP Networks Energy ( Power ) Water

What we all want Build on the success of the Internet Ubiquitous broadband Faster robust broadband networks New innovative applications Consumer/citizen benefits Investment in networks and applications

Build on the success of the Internet

Ubiquitous broadband

Faster robust broadband networks

New innovative applications

Consumer/citizen benefits

Investment in networks and applications

Growing Demand

The Consumer in Control and Driving Demand Entire Internet Traffic Only 20 Homes 2010 “ By the year 2010… bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than entire Internet in 1995” 1995 Source: Cisco estimates, Ovum, Gartner, IDC, Merrill Lynch, MRG, MPA, Public company data

Impact of Video on Internet Traffic 41% CAGR 2007-2012 Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012 GROWTH OF GLOBAL CONSUMER INTERNET TRAFFIC MIX 0 10,000 20,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 PB/month Internet Video to TV Internet Video to PC VoIP Video Communications Gaming P2P Web/Data

[Gbps] Efforts for Grasping Current Status of Internet Traffic in Japan , MIC Est. download traffic of broadband users in Japan Monthly average of daily traffic of Broadband customers (ADSL/CATV/FTTH) of major ISPs in Japan (ref.1) Monthly average of daily peak traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan (ref.2) Monthly average of daily traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan IP traffic in Japan grew 2.5 times in 3 years to estimated 812.9Gbps in Nov 2007

Heavy Users Dominate Traffic

Traffic Consumption Among Residential Broadband Users -- 10,000-fold variation Source : http://www.iepg.org/march2005/kjc-iepg200503.pdf 1% 5% 20% 50% 1 TB/Mo Avg = 8GB/Mo = 25Kbit/sec 1% => 225+ GB/Month 5% => 60+ GB/Month 20% => 7,5+ GB/Month 50% => 1+ GB/Month 90% Users are under the Avg

Dimensions of Broadband: Quality Matters

Dimensions of Broadband Bandwidth—”speed” Latency Jitter Symmetry Bursting Other…

Bandwidth—”speed”

Latency

Jitter

Symmetry

Bursting

Other…

Not All Bits Are Created Equal “Speed” and Latency Bandwidth Low High High Low Telepresence Voice HD-IPTV Sensitive to Latency Streaming Audio Gaming (LD) Gaming (HD) Email Download Video Streaming Video

Changing Requirements for Quality 2000 2005 2010 2015 Broadband Quality TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES Source: California Broadband Task Force, Jan 2008; Cisco IBSG; Expert interviews; Oxford Team analysis, Aug 2008 Social networking LD video streaming Basic video chatting Small file sharing SD IPTV Visual networking HD video streaming Consumer telepresence Large file sharing HD IPTV Requirements Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms Requirements Download 11.25Mbps Upload 5Mbps Latency 60ms Today Tomorrow

Social networking

LD video streaming

Basic video chatting

Small file sharing

SD IPTV

Visual networking

HD video streaming

Consumer telepresence

Large file sharing

HD IPTV

Requirements

Download 3.75 Mbps

Upload 1 Mbps

Latency 95ms

Requirements

Download 11.25Mbps

Upload 5Mbps

Latency 60ms

Broadband Quality Score (BQS) BQS is calculated based on normalized values of: Download and Upload throughput, and Latency About 8million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008 Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow ’s (3 to 5 years) applications. BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency Source: University of Oviedo; Delphi interviews; Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008 BQS CALCULATION BQS threshold: 32 Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms BQS threshold: 75 Download 11.25Mbps Upload 5Mbps Latency 60ms

BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:

Download and Upload throughput, and Latency

About 8million records sourced from actual tests from Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008

Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow ’s (3 to 5 years) applications.

BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency

BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency

BQS threshold: 32

Download 3.75 Mbps

Upload 1 Mbps

Latency 95ms

BQS threshold: 75

Download 11.25Mbps

Upload 5Mbps

Latency 60ms

Country Broadband Quality Scores Source: Speed Test database, Expert Interviews, BQS Team Analysis, Aug 2008 Today’s applications BQS threshold: 32 Tomorrow’s applications BQS threshold: 75 BROADBAND QUALITY SCORE BY COUNTRY 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 BQI

Impact of Quality and Penetration MAIN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH BROADBAND QUALITY AND PENETRATION Source: Speed Test database; University of Oviedo and Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008 * based on limited sample of ComScore data HIGH PENETRATION HIGH QUALITY ICT Diffusion Knowledge Economy Web Usage* Education Fibre and upgraded cable Innovation Labour Productivity Competitiveness GDP/Capita Technology Diversity PCs/Capita DRIVING FACTORS IMPACT ON BROADBAND SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT

ICT Diffusion

Knowledge Economy

Web Usage*

Education

Fibre and upgraded cable

Innovation

Labour Productivity

Competitiveness

GDP/Capita

Technology Diversity

PCs/Capita

 

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