Published on February 26, 2014
Presentation on Case Application A Curtain Fall Presented By Even Jasim Alam (09-14710-3) Rahman Inzamamur (13-23124-1) Sobhan Rahman (13-23633-1) Hossain Md. Rakib (12-20281-1) Hasan Riyad (13-23875-1)
Jay Leno • Veteran Comedian ,Writer and Television host • Hosted NBC's The Tonight Show from 1992 to 2009. • In September, 2009 he was given to host a primetime comedy show named The Jay Leno Show • He was returned to The Tonight Show in March,2010
Conan O’ Brien • Television host, writer, voice actor • Started to host The Tonight Show from September 2009 • In January 2010 was asked to leave The Tonight Show with $40m agreement
Overview Criteria evaluated by NBC. Appropriateness Structured or Unstructured Decision making condition Jeff Gasping comment , Decision making Style The decision’s improvement by - Rationality - Bounded rationality - Intuition - Evidence-based management.
Traditionally in weeknight primetime a sixty minutes scripted TV show is broadcasted which is very expensive to produce.
A traditional comedy show is cheaper to produce than regular scripted show
Both Leno and Conan experienced big rating fall
Different types of viewer survey could be done before implementing the decision
Structured Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach Used when problem - involve clear goal - familiar - easily defined Unstructured Decision Unique and non recurring. Generate unique responses. Used when problem - new or unusual - information is ambiguous or incomplete. - require custom-made solutions
A Radical Experiment Broadcasting comedy show in prime time week night is never done before.
Decision Making Condition Certainty A ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Risk A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Uncertainty Limited or information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”.
The NBC managers knew only that , the decision would save money but didn’t able to estimate the viewer’s response which makes condition uncertain
Jeff Gaspin’s Statement Chairman of the television entertainment of NBC universal said about the decision “I don’t think it’s wrong to take chances. . . . Sometimes they work. Sometimes they don’t.”
Linear Thinking characterized by a person’s preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinking to guide decisions and actions
Nonlinear Thinking Characterized by a preference for internal sources of information (feelings and intuition) and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches to guide decisions and actions
Nonlinear Thinker Mr. Gaspin appears to have a non-linear thinking style. Due to the lack of existing information, Mr. Gaspin decided to take a chance and use his own feelings and intuition to guide his actions. Someone with a linear style would have requested more information and probably tested the concept more thoroughly before committing the network to a final decision.
Rationality In a rational decision making process, a business manager will often employ a series of analytical steps to review relevant facts, observations and possible outcomes before choosing a particular course of action. The network executives would have followed a series of logical steps to help them reach the decision about prime-time format. This would have included a thorough evaluation of the decision criteria, criteria weights, possible alternatives, and evaluation of those alternative’s outcomes
Bounded Rationality Rationality of individuals is limited by the information they have, the cognitive limitations of their minds, and the finite amount of time they have to make a decision The decision would have been made based on a limited set of criteria and alternatives
Intuition Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment A number of factors would have been considered including past experience, manager feelings, manager’s skills, subconscious mental process, and managerial values.
Evidence Based Management The systematic use of the best available evidence to improve management practice The managers would have relied on available information on the success of similar formats.
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