Texas weather outlook (spring 2014)

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Information about Texas weather outlook (spring 2014)

Published on March 10, 2014

Author: texasnetwork

Source: slideshare.net

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Presented by Jeffrey Lindner at the Texas Water Conservation Association Conference in The Woodlands, Texas - March 2014

Jeffrey Lindner Meteorologist Harris County Flood Control District March 7, 2014 Texas Weather Outlook (Spring 2014)

Texas Annual Rainfall 1895-2012

Texas Annual Rainfall

A Decade of Drought

2013 Texas Rainfall

2013 Texas Rainfall Departure from Normal

6 Year Rainfall Departures 2008 - 53.00 : + 3.23 * 2009 – 47.01: - 2.76 2010 – 42.72: - 7.05 2011 – 24.57: - 25.20 2012 – 42.32: - 7.45 2013 – 38.84: - 10.93 Total Departure: - 50.16 2008 – 21.71: - 19.51 2009 – 30.81: - 10.41 2010 – 46.62: + 5.40 2011 – 13.08: - 28.14 2012 – 28.13: - 13.09 2013 – 25.56: - 15.66 Total Departure: - 81.41 2008 – 27.99: - 3.77 2009 – 20.61: - 11.15 2010 – 43.92: + 12.16 2011 – 12.06: - 19.07 2012 – 18.82: - 12.94 2013 – 23.45: - 8.31 Total Departure: - 43.71 Houston BUSH IAH Victoria Corpus Christi 2008 – 15.98: - 16.17 2009 – 34.11: + 1.96 2010 – 28.42: - 3.73 2011 – 16.90: - 15.25 2012 – 35.13: + 2.98 2013 – 37.04: + 4.48 Total Departure: - 25.73 Austin * Hurricane Ike landfall on upper TX coast.

2014 Drought Conditions

2014 Lake Levels Lake Levels and Capacity February 20, 2014 Lake Conroe: -1.18 (94%) Lake Houston: 0.00 (100%) Canyon Lake: -7.68 (84%) Lake Somerville: -2.71 (81%) Lake Texana: -3.41 (81%) Lake Buchanan: -30.62 (38%) Lake Travis: -52.25 (36%) Choke Canyon: -23.10 (34%) Toledo Bend: -3.37 (87%) Sam Rayburn: -3.23 (88%) Lake Houston Lake Travis Lake Levels and Capacity (Lowest Levels) Lake Conroe: -8.41 (66%) * Lake Houston: -7.70 (65%) Lake Livingston: -4.10 (80%) Lake Somerville: -10.36 (37%) Lake Texana: -12.43 (41%) Lake Buchanan: -30.22 (35%) Lake Travis: -54.74 (31%) Lake Georgetown: -25.31 (34%) Toledo Bend: -12.43 (58%) * Sam Rayburn: -13.60 (55%) * * New Record low

Conservation Storage Statistics -TWDB Current State Storage: 64.0% 6 months ago: 64.0% 1 year ago: 67.0%

Drought Conditions: Highland Lakes Total Storage of Travis and Buchanan Lowest combined storage ever: 621,221 acre-feet on 9-9-1951 Lowest combined storage in current drought 638,282 acre-feet on 9-18-2013 Current total combined storage of Lakes Travis and Buchanan: 38%

Controlling Global Weather Patterns in Fall, Winter, and Spring • ENSO (El Nino/La Nina) • AMO • PDO

Nino Regions

Current Nino Region SST’s

El Niño – ENSO Warm Phase

El Niño Winter Impacts

La Niña – ENSO Cold Phase

La Niña Impacts

ENSO Forecast

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Current Pacific Sea Surface Anomalies

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Cold phase PDO favors southern plains drought

Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) Warm phase AMO favors southern plains drought

2014 Drought Forecast

Long Term Outlook • Drought has always been a part of Texas climate. • With a cold PDO and a warm AMO, Texas is more susceptible to prolonged drought this decade. • The end of the 20th century was likely the most drought-free period in the last millennium. Our wet trend is expected to reverse this century, increasing the importance of drought preparedness and mitigation.

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