Telecom Seminar 5 20 06

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Information about Telecom Seminar 5 20 06

Published on April 18, 2008

Author: Funtoon


2G, 3G and Beyond:  2G, 3G and Beyond An Understanding of Technology and Services Agenda:  Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview 2G, 3G and Beyond Market Segmentation Network Convergence Market Trends Services 2G: Technology Summary:  2G: Technology Summary TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access Standardized in 1990 as IS-54 Provides 3-6 times capacity increase over AMPS (1G) Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels) Introduced authentication and encryption for security GSM: Global System of Mobile communications Standardized in 1992, based on TMDA technology Improved battery life over TDMA GPRS peak data rates of 140 kbps; EDGE data rates of 180kbps CDMA: Code Division Multiple Access Standardized in 1993 as IS-95 Provides 1.5-2 times capacity increase over TDMA Peak data rate of 14.4kpbs (can bundle up to 8 channels) 2G: Winners & Losers:  2G: Winners & Losers TDMA Marginally better capacity than GSM, marginally worse battery life No evolution path beyond 2G – DEAD END !! CDMA Lots of hype on capacity, delivered on upwards of 2x capacity improvement over TDMA/GSM Clear evolution to 3G GSM International Roaming and Compatibility Clear evolution to 3G Defacto Global Standard GSM: A Success Story Growth in China:  GSM: A Success Story Growth in China GSM subscribers in Asia Pacific reached 650 million in March 2006 (521 million March 2005 = 24.7% annual growth) GSM growth exceeded CDMA by 11x from March 05 to March 06 China GSM grew over 54 mil subs in past 12 months = over 1 million/week Cdma added under 5 mil subs in the same period GSM: A Success Story Growth in India:  GSM: A Success Story Growth in India India reached almost 64 million GSM subscribers at 31.03.06 GSM has 77.5% market share GSM additions = 22.7 million in 12 months = over 55% growth Cdma added 8 million in same period GSM: A Success Story Growth in Rest of World:  GSM: A Success Story Growth in Rest of World Europe: Eastern Europe 289 million (48.9% annual growth) Western Europe 426 million (8.1% annual growth) Africa: 146 million (62.6% annual growth) Middle East: 51.4 million (63.5% annual growth) Americas: Canada and USA 85 million (35% annual growth) Latin America and the Caribbean 144 million (92.6% annual growth) Evolution to 3G Drivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost:  Evolution to 3G Drivers: Capacity, Data Speed, Cost 2G First Step into 3G 90% 10% 3G phase 1 Evolved 3G 3GPP Core Network Expected market share 3G: Technology Summary:  3G: Technology Summary Technology Convergence on Wideband-CDMA CDMA 2000 Successor to CDMA IS-95, 4 core standards – 1xRTT, 1x EV-DO, 1x EV-DV, 3xRTT 1xRTT provides 2x voice capacity increase over IS-95 and a peak data rate of 144kbps EV-DO Rev A provide peak data rates of 3.1 downlink / 1.8 uplink (800kbps typical) UMTS Successor to GSM, based on W-CDMA Peak data rates of up to 1920kbps (384kbps typical) HSDPA peak data rate of up to 14.4Mbps 3G: Winners & Losers ??:  3G: Winners & Losers ?? UMTS Huge delays (terminals availability) Exorbitant license fees Confusing pricing strategies & lack of compelling services Clear evolution path HSxPA (Peak Data Rates), LTE (Network Simplification) CDMA2000 Early adoption (Korea) Compelling peak data rates (EV-DO) Unclear evolution path 3xRTT? WIMAX? UMTS Growth Devices Penetration:  UMTS Growth Devices Penetration Source: GSA survey published February 28, 2006 315 Devices 38 Suppliers UMTS Growth Subscriber Penetration:  UMTS Growth Subscriber Penetration Over 55 million WCDMA subs at 31 March 06 Approaching 140% yearly growth Over 3 million adds monthly in last 6 months WCDMA gained over 10% share of mobile growth in Asia Q1 06 WCDMA gained 1 in 3 new connections in Western Europe in Q1 06 Global Subscriber Counts:  Global Subscriber Counts 0 0.5 Bn 1 Bn 1.5 Bn 2 Bn 2.5 Bn 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 CDMA GSM PHS W-CDMA Note: GSM Emerging Market Handset (EMH) initiative = 80% of Global Population with Wireless Service by 2010, based on sub $30 handsets 17 countries targeted = 1.8 Bn people ; not included in current sub counts …and Beyond:  …and Beyond Technology Convergence on OFDM (Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiple Access) WIMAX Standardized by IEEE 802.16, evolution of 802.11 (Wi-Fi) Improved bandwidth, encryption and coverage over WiFi Theoretical peak data rates of 70Mbps (practical peak ~2Mbps) Improved QoS better enables applications such as VoIP or IPTV Ideal application is for “last mile” connectivity to the home or business Intel plans to embed WiMAX chips as part of ‘Intel Inside’ L3GTE/HSOPA Early standardization work starts in 3GPP R8 Improved bandwidth, latency over UMTS/HSxPA Radio technology based on MIMO-OFDM, peak data rates of up to 70Mbps Network simplification Wireless Access Evolution:  Wireless Access Evolution Broadband New Services Efficiency Broadband Subscribers Voice Coverage Mobility Voice Quality Portability Capacity Broadband Network Simplification Cost of Ownership Agenda:  Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview 2G, 3G and Beyond Market Segmentation Network Convergence Market Trends Services Market Segments:  Market Segments Cordless WiMAX 16e HSDPA to OFDM EV-DO to OFDM WiFi Local Fixed Voice Broadband Cellular WiMAX 16d DSL / Cable POTS 802.11a/b/g 802.11n MIMO Mesh Dialup 2.5G Mobile Operator Objectives:  Operator Objectives Voice+ Growth to Wireless Data+ Growth to Broadband Network Goals are Similar Differentiation on Access & Business goals Mobile Operators Subscriber growth Wireless Data / 3G Wireline Substitution Fixed Operators Broadband Line Growth Revenue Protection Cable, Satellite, ISP Network Leverage New Market Penetration Video Triple Play Drivers Wireless Broadband Core IP Customer Lifestyle Search for Growth Network Convergence:  Network Convergence Reliable, Scalable, Secure Network Convergence - IMS:  Service Control Presence / GLMS Applications R4 CDMA PSTN Media Resources TDM & Packet Interworking Peer IP Network Access Network IP/MPLS Core Multimedia Services Messaging Services Web / WAP Services Streaming Services Audio/ Video WLAN ASN WiMAX GPRS UMTS ASG HSOPA OFDM/MIMO BRAS Network Convergence - IMS Network Enablers:  Network Enablers Charging Ability to provide differentiated charging based flexible usage models, including time / data / volume Quality of Service Ability to provide differentiated service, e.g. Olympic levels: gold / silver / bronze Policy Management Ability to make personalized policy decisions based on subscriber, access and content Security Ability to provide secure access and “clean pipes” for content delivery Agenda:  Agenda Wireless Cellular Technology Overview 2G, 3G and Beyond Market Segmentation Network Convergence Market Trends Services Market Trends:  Market Trends Media Convergence – Multiple Play Dual Play: High-Speed Internet & Fixed Line Triple Play: Dual Play + TV Quadruple Play: Triple Play + Wireless Challenge: Consolidated Invoice and Price Points Fixed Mobile Convergence Dual Mode connectivity Cellular / Cordless (DECT, ADSL/Bluetooth) WLAN / WWAN Challenge: Technology standardization MVNO – Mobile Virtual Network Operator Wireless Service Reseller, wholesales access from wireless operators Discount & Lifestyle MVNO’s Segment, Product, Utilization Driven Challenge: Market Saturation & Service Differentiation Market Trends (continued):  Market Trends (continued) M-Commerce – Electronic Commerce using Mobile Phones Leverage ubiquity of mobile phones to make transactions Current payment methods: premium calling #’s, phone bill invoice, credit card Strong interest in key industries: banking, sports & entertainment, travel, retail Challenge: Security, Terminal Capabilities, Access Speeds Multimedia – use of several media types to convey information Effective information delivery across many disciplines: art, education, telecommunications, medicine IMS enables multimedia services for mobile users VoIP Challenge: User Interface, Form Factor, lack of “killer app” Presence – Always on, always connected Combine Mobility & Reachability Effectively bring Popularity of IM to mobile phones (AOL, Yahoo!, MSN, Skype) Opportunity for standardization & interworking based on SIP/SIMPLE Challenge: Standardization & always on connectivity Market Trends The next 5 years in North America:  Market Trends The next 5 years in North America More substitution of mobile and wireless technologies for fixed lines 30% US homes will have only cellular or broadband access, driven by youth who see no value in fixed lines for telephony Lower churn Due to consolidation, better pricing and marketing plans, higher quality networks More mobile e-mail Driven by popularity, proliferation of smartphones, and ease of setup and use Greater adoption of smartphones Defined as phones that run open OS’s, e.g. Microsoft, driven by business users, Increased mobile advertising Mobile advertising needed for added revenue generation; successful use will require balancing intrusive nature of unsolicited ads & value to the end user Market Trends The next 5 years in North America:  Market Trends The next 5 years in North America The growth of mobile entertainment Handsets are increasing designed for entertainment with integrated cameras, MP3 players – trend will be to partner with content providers to drive usage (Google, Yahoo!, Apple) Greater market penetration by mobile technologies and slower connection growth North America will become increasingly saturated – will drive price competition, flexible and targeted tariff plans, and differentiation More converged services based on the IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) Will become common network infrastructure, will enable fixed and mobile service bundles The rise of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) Will add value by offering differentiation More mobile data applications for enterprises Increased email, as well as presence and location functions, will drive up data usage Services:  Services Prepaid Segment driven, will increase with MVNO’s SMS Remains extremely popular, key driver is use of short-code numbers Push-To-Talk Segment driven, slow take amongst general consumers MMS Slow adoption due to user interface, will increase due to interoperability improvements and integration with m-commerce Downloads Ring-tones is #1 revenue generator but slowing, Gaming is on the rise Video Video clip services are emerging, pricing is typically subscription-based Music Music stores increasingly common, need competitive pricing, will leverage MP3 integration Radio Satellite radio offers resell XM and Sirius Adult CTIA recommendation for socially responsible access to content; penetration expected to start in 2008

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