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Published on January 9, 2009

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Launch Vehicle Economics:Worked Examples : Launch Vehicle Economics:Worked Examples By Chris Y. Taylor 2006 AIAA Houston ATS NASA/JSC May 19, 2006 Slide 2: c = R G c = specific cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Payload Mass   R = payload mass ratio = Structure Mass/Payload Mass   G = structure cost ($/lb.) = Launch Cost/Structure Mass Slide 3: c = R ( Gvehicle + Gops + Grisk + Gpropellant + (Gnr/a)) Gvehicle = Cost of Vehicle Hardware   Fops = Cost of Operations   Grisk = Cost of Risk   Gpropellant = Cost of Propellant (Gnr/a) = Amortized Non-recurring Costs Slide 4: Launch Costs Slide 5: Amortized Non-Recurring Cost (G nr/a) Gnr = non-recurring costs $20,000 < Gnr < $120,000 (assuming R&D only)   a = amortization factor ? flight rate = 27 (10 yr. payback, 4 yr. r&d , flight rate of 27/6 yr, 0% interest & inflation)   $750 < (G nr/a)< $4500 Reduce Cost through Lean Operation and Good Management : Reduce Cost through Lean Operation and Good Management Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design : Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design Slide 8: Selected Bibliography Griffen M.D. and Claybaugh, W.R., “The Cost of Access to Space”, JBIS vol. 47 pp 119-122, 1994   Whitehead, J.C., “Launch Vehicle Cost: A Low Tech Analysis”, AIAA paper 2000-3140, 2000   Kalitventzeff, B., “Various Optimization Methods for Preliminary Cost and Mass Distribution Assessment for Multistage Rocket Vehicles”, JBIS vol. 20, pp 177-183, 1965   Carton, D.S., and Kalitventzeff, B., “Effect of Engine, Tank, and Propellant Specific Cost on Single-Stage Recoverable Booster Economics,” JBIS vol. 20, pp 183-196, 1965 Wertz, J.R., “Economic Model of Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles”, presented IAF Congress, Reo de Janeiro, Brazil, Oct. 2-6, 2000   Worden, S., “Perspectives on Space Future”, presented 2003 NIAC meeting, Nov. 6, 2003, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files /library/fellows_mtg/nov03_mtg/pdf/Worden_Simon.pdf   Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, Nov. 9, 2001   Chang, I.S., “Overview of World Space Launches”, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp 853-866, Sept.-Oct. 2000   Claybaugh, W. R., Economics of Space Transportation AIAA Short Course, 2002 World Space Congress, Houston TX Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design : Reduce Cost through Evolutionary Design Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, April 11, 1999 Slide 10: Amortized Non-Recurring Cost (G nr/a) Gnr = non-recurring costs $20,000 < Gnr < $120,000 (assuming R&D only)   a = amortization factor ? flight rate = 27 (10 yr. payback, 4 yr. r&d , flight rate of 27/6 yr, 0% interest & inflation)   $750 < (G nr/a)< $4500 Development Cost Breakdown : Development Cost Breakdown (G nr/a) = (S (Gnr,i)(mi/mstructure))/a Total development cost is the sum of many smaller development costs. Lesson: Develop as little of the vehicle as possible. Using Identical Stages for Reduced Development Cost : Using Identical Stages for Reduced Development Cost Bimese Image from: THE BIMESE CONCEPT: A STUDY OF MISSION AND ECONOMIC OPTIONS by Dr. John R. Olds and Jeffrey Tooley, 1999 Trimese RocketCost.xls (beta) : RocketCost.xls (beta) http://www.jupiter-measurement.com/research/rocketcost.xls Bimese vs. Normal 2 Stage : Bimese vs. Normal 2 Stage INPUTS: 10,000 lb. payload, Isp = 450s, Stage Propellant Fraction = 0.875, ?V = 30,000 ft/s, reusable (50 flights), $2,000/lb. vehicle costs, Baseline Design R&D = $40,000/lb., Bimese Design R&D = $50,000/lb., a = 27 Bimese vs. Normal 2 Stage : Bimese vs. Normal 2 Stage INPUTS: 10,000 lb. payload, Isp = 450s, Baseline Prop. Fraction = 0.875, Tank Prop. Fraction = 0.95, Tanked Bimese Prop. Fraction = 0.85 ?V = 30,000 ft/s, reusable (50 flights), $2,000/lb. vehicle costs, Baseline Design R&D = $40,000/lb., Bimese Design R&D = $50,000/lb., E.T. design & hardware costs = 1/3 normal, a = 27 Quadmese + ET? : Quadmese + ET? Hans Multhopp’s Shuttle Design, Unknown Citation, Oct., 1969. Can you have an N-mese? : Can you have an N-mese? Flock Space Launch Architecture By Allan Goff, Novatia Labs, Folsom CA Conclusions : Conclusions A “Back of The Napkin” Cost Model for conceptual launch vehicle design is useful and fun! Try this at home. Download my RocketCost spreadsheet beta. Let me know if you find any errors. www.jupiter-measurement.com/research/rocketcost.xls Amortized development cost is really important for economical space access. Don’t spend $$$ to develop more than you have to. “An engineer is someone who can do for one dollar what any idiot can do with two.” Slide 19: Selected Bibliography Griffen M.D. and Claybaugh, W.R., “The Cost of Access to Space”, JBIS vol. 47 pp 119-122, 1994   Whitehead, J.C., “Launch Vehicle Cost: A Low Tech Analysis”, AIAA paper 2000-3140, 2000   Kalitventzeff, B., “Various Optimization Methods for Preliminary Cost and Mass Distribution Assessment for Multistage Rocket Vehicles”, JBIS vol. 20, pp 177-183, 1965   Carton, D.S., and Kalitventzeff, B., “Effect of Engine, Tank, and Propellant Specific Cost on Single-Stage Recoverable Booster Economics,” JBIS vol. 20, pp 183-196, 1965 Wertz, J.R., “Economic Model of Reusable vs. Expendable Launch Vehicles”, presented IAF Congress, Reo de Janeiro, Brazil, Oct. 2-6, 2000   Worden, S., “Perspectives on Space Future”, presented 2003 NIAC meeting, Nov. 6, 2003, http://www.niac.usra.edu/files /library/fellows_mtg/nov03_mtg/pdf/Worden_Simon.pdf   Griffen, M.D., “Heavy Lift Launch for Lunar Exploration”, presented U. of Wisconsin, Nov. 9, 2001, http://fti.neep.wisc.edu/neep533/FALL2001/lecture29.pdf   Chang, I.S., “Overview of World Space Launches”, Journal of Prop. and Power, Vol. 16, No. 5, pp 853-866, Sept.-Oct. 2000   Claybaugh, W. R., Economics of Space Transportation AIAA Short Course, 2002 World Space Congress, Houston TX

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