Published on March 16, 2014
2 MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT VIET NAM INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY, HYDROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY REPORT SUPPORT TO IMPROVE CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN PROVINCES 2013
2 CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................3 2 SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES .......................................................................................3 2.1 DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS.......3 2.1.1 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh .......................................................4 126.96.36.199 Observed climate changes in Binh Dinh in recent decades.................4 188.8.131.52 Climate change scenario for Bình Định...............................................6 2.1.2 Climate change scenario for Bình Thuận.......................................................7 184.108.40.206 Observed climate changes in Binh Thuan in recent decades...............7 220.127.116.11 Climate change scenario for Bình Thuận ............................................9 2.1.3 Climate change scenario for Cần Thơ..........................................................11 18.104.22.168 Observed climate changes in Can Tho in recent decades..................11 22.214.171.124 Climate change scenario for Cần Thơ ...............................................13 2.2 ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLANS OF THE PROVINCE .................15 2.2.1 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change in Binh Dinh ..............15 2.2.2 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change on Binh Thuan province........................................................................................................19 2.2.3 Assessment of the impact of climate change and sea level rise on socio-economic development plan in Can Tho............................................24 2.3 IDENTIFICATION OF ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR THE PROVINCES ............27 2.3.1 The adaptation measures to Binh Dinh........................................................28 2.3.2 The adaptation measures for Binh Thuan ....................................................30 2.3.3 The adaptation measures to Can Tho...........................................................32 2.4 CASE STUDY IN THE DISTRICT ........................................................................34 2.4.1 Tây Sơn district  ......................................................................................35 2.4.2 Phú Quý Island district ...........................................................................36 3 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................37 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................40
3 1 INTRODUCTION The project " Strengthening National Capacities to respond to Climate Change in Viet Nam, reducing vulnerability and controlling GHG emissions " sponsored by UNDP for Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment is assigned to coordinate with line ministries, sectors and localities to implement the project. The project aims to strengthen the institutional capacity and policies on climate change, to support the implementation of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTPRCC) from central to local levels. Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho are the three provinces / cities supported by the project with activities to strengthen capacity to respond to climate change, including research on the assessment of climate change impacts over various time frames, including extreme events for each area. The project developed high resolution climate change scenarios for the three provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho, assessments of climate change impacts, identification and selection of adaptation measures, and developed an Action Plan to respond to climate change. Numerous consulting activities for economic sectors within socio-economic development processes and areas susceptible to climate change have been implemented to propose measures for adaptation to climate change in Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho City, Tay Son district (Binh Dinh) and Phu Quy island (Binh Thuan). Detailed climate change scenarios for local areas have been developed; the pressures and challenges caused by climate change at local level have been analyzed to propose adaptation measures such as water resource management in Binh Thuan, groundwater management in Phu Quy island, urban planning adjustment for An Binh Ward, Ninh Kieu District, Can Tho City etc. The results from the consultations will provide important information to help scientists better understand local issues, advantages and challenges in implementing climate change adaptation activities. Capturing information and lessons learned from research are essential to support local activities. Parallel to the research and consultation, the project has implemented various training courses and seminars to raise awareness, research skills for provincial staff. This report outlines the major results of the project’s activities in the three provinces. 2 SPECIFIC ACTIVITIES 2.1 Development of climate change and sea level rise scenarios Climate change scenarios are an important part of climate change study. Climate change scenarios are the basis for assessing climate change impacts on natural systems and socio-economic development processes, to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. Climate change scenarios are regarded as reliable and simple tools to project future climate, based on a set of climatic processes, and to understand the consequences caused by human-induced climate change; they are usually used as inputs for impact assessment models1. Vietnam has developed many climate change scenarios, which consequently have been applied in studies and implementations of activities to respond to climate change. Climate change scenarios for Vietnam were first developed in 1994 in a research in the 1 IPCC (2007), The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University Press
4 Asia - Vietnam component – by the Asian Development Bank. In 2003, the first Vietnam National Communication to the UNFCCC2 updated and announced the development of climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. The report "Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam" is the most comprehensive script based on scientific research and practices which can be applied to the implementation of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change. The report has been mandated to the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment to develop, update and announce scenarios in 2009 and 20123. Two versions have been completed with support from UNDP, and in cooperation with the Hadley Centre of the UK Met Office, CLIMSystem of New Zealand and a number of other organizations. Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho are the three provinces supported by the project to develop climate change adaptation activities, including development of climate change scenarios as a priority. Within the project framework, the project has supported and provided line departments in the provinces of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan, Can Tho with the development of detailed "climate change scenarios" for each province to provide the scientific basis for assessing impacts and vulnerability caused by climate change at provincial level. 2.1.1 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh 126.96.36.199 Observed climate changes in Binh Dinh in recent decades a) Temperature According to data analysis, in Binh Dinh, temperature changes, both absolute values and anomaly reached the highest increase in winter while the increase is lower in summer; which makes the overall change during the whole year not significant. In the 2 Viet Nam National Initial communication to UNFCCC, 2003 3 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam, 2009 and 2012
5 past 50 years, the average temperature in January increased about 0.8oC, in July approximately 0,65oC and annual average increase 0.7oC. In Binh Dinh, both highest maximum temperature and lowest minimum temperature increased in the past 50 years. Similarly, the number of hot days (>35oC) also increased. The number of days with highest maximum temperature (Tx) more than 35oC in the decade of 1978 to 1987 was 45.9 days; this increased to 61.4 days in the next decade and 53.4 days in the decade of 1998-2007. Figure 1. The trend of annual mean temperature anomaly observed in Quy Nhon station b) Precipitation In Binh Dinh, in the last 50 years, dry season rainfall increased about 6.7% / decade; the rainy season precipitation tends to increase with about 5.6% / decade while the overall annual rainfall increased by 5.8% / decade. The increase of rainfall appeared to be fairly stable. The number of days with heavy rainfall increased in recent decades, but not much. The number of days with rainfall above 50mm during the decade of 1978 to 1987 was 9.1 days; it slightly increased in the decades of 1988 to 1997 and 1998-2007 with an average of 11 days. The highest and the 5-day rainfall showed no significant change. Figure 2. Number of days with rainfall more than 50mm c) Sea level rise Trung bình 9,1 (1978 – 1987) Trung bình 11,0 (1998 – 2007) Trung bình 9,3 (1988 – 1997)
6 From the results of data analysis at Quy Nhon station, sea level in Binh Dinh province tends to increase at a rate of 2.5 mm / year over the past decade; this is slower than the average sea level rise across coastal Vietnam . d) Tropical cyclones and low pressure From 1961 to 2007, there were a total of 38 tropical cyclones affecting Binh Dinh provinces, including 13 tropical depression and 25 tropical cyclones. On average, each decade has about 8 tropical cyclone strikes affecting Binh Dinh. The most serious year experienced 4 strikes (1995). 188.8.131.52 Climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh a) Temperature According to the findings of the climate change and sea scenarios: the average air temperature in Binh Dinh province in the 21st century tends to increase with a higher degree from March to May compared to other periods of the year; the lowest rise will be from June to August. By the mid-21st century, the average temperature rise according to high emission scenario (A2), medium emission scenario (B2) and low emission scenario (B1) will be 1.3oC, 1.2oC and 1.1oC respectively. By the end of the 21st century, the increase of the average temperature according to the scenarios will be 2.9oC, 2.3oC and 1.5oC. Geographically, the southwest region of Binh Dinh has a higher increase than the east and northeast. . Figure 3. The increase in the average temperature in the mid-21st century compared to the period 1980 to 1999 in Binh Dinh with medium emissions scenario (B2) Figure 4. The change in annual rainfall in mid- 21st century compared to the period 1980 to 1999 in Binh Dinh with medium emissions scenario (B2) Similar to the average temperature, the highest maximum and the lowest minimum temperature tend to increase with the highest rate in the summer (June to August) while the lowest rate of increase is in the winter (December - February). In the mid-21st century, the increase will be 1.7oC and 2.7oC by the end of the century. b) Rainfall Study results on rainfall changes in dry season, rainy season and annually
7 accordingly to scenarios show a decrease in dry season and an increase in the rainy season; the increase in the rainy season appears to be higher than the decrease in the dry season. In the mid-21st century, rainfall increase based on the high emissions scenario will be 3.8%, 3.6% with the medium emission scenario and 3.4% with the low emission scenario. By the end of the century, the rainfall increase will be 8.9%, 7.0% and 4.6% respectively for the scenarios. Annual rainfall in Binh Dinh decreases from the east to the west. In the mid-21st century, the districts of An Lao, Hoai Nhon, Phu My, Phu Cat, An Nhon, Tuy Phuoc and Quy Nhon city in the east will have a rainfall increase from 3.5 to 4%. Vinh Thach district and An Lao, Hoai An, Tay Son, Van Canh districts in the west will have an increase of 2.5 to 3%. Other areas of the province will have an increase from 3 to 3.5%. Maximum daily and 5-day rainfall in most areas of Binh Dinh area will increase quite significantly, from 75 to 100%. c) Sea level rise The highest rise of sea level due to climate change in 2100 in Binh Dinh will be about 83-97 cm. In the first 50 years of 21st century, the sea level will rise at a slower rate than the last 50 years4. 2.1.2 Climate change scenarios for Binh Thuan 184.108.40.206 Observed climate changes in Binh Thuan in recent decades a) Temperature In Binh Thuan, the degree of temperature changes, both absolute values and anomaly are relatively high in winter and less in summer and the degree of change annually is not much. January average temperature (increased about 0.2oC per decade) tends to increase faster than the average temperature in July (increased about 0.1oC per decade). The average temperature of Phu Quy island tends to increase in the last 3 decades and the rate of change observed at the island station is similar to that of Phan Thiet station. In the past 35 years, both average high and average low temperature increased. There are differences in the degree of increase; the lowest minimum temperature appeared to increase faster, about 0.3oC per decade compared to 0.1 to 0.2oC per decade. The number of days with pleasant weather (T <20o) will decrease and the number of days with temperatures above 35oC will increase . 4 Scenarios of climate change and sea level rise for Binh Dinh, 2011
8 Figure 5. The trend of annual mean temperature anomaly observed in Phan Thiet station b) Precipitation In the past 50 years, dry season rainfall increased about 12.4% per decade, the rainy season rainfall tends to increase with approximately 4.1% and the annual rainfall increased approximately 5% per decade. The trend of increase in the dry season is higher than that of the rainy season. In Phu Quy island in the past three decades, dry season rainfall increased about 8% per decade, during the rainy season, rainfall increased less, only about 3.6% per decade and the annual rainfall increased 4.7% per decade. Maximum daily and 5-day rainfall in most areas of Binh Thuan appeared to remain stable in recent decades . Figure 6. The number of days with rainfall above 50 mm during the period 1978-2007 c) Sea level rise The annual average sea level rise in Phu Quy stations tends to increase at a rate of more than 3 mm per year. The highest average annual sea level rise seems to reduce while the lowest increases significantly. d) Tropical cyclones and low pressures During the period of 1961 – 2007, Binh Thuan province had been effected by tropical cyclones less than other regions . In total there were 18 strikes of which 7 tropical depressions and 11 tropical cyclones effected Binh Thuan. On average, there are 4 strikes each decade. e) Drought Trung bình 2,6 (1978 - 1987) Trung bình 5,2 (1998 - 2007) Trung bình 2,8 (1988 - 1997)
9 In Binh Thuan droughts often occur, even during the rainy season. Part of the area in the east of Phan Thiet city experiences severe droughts while most parts in the west also experienced droughts. In Tuy Phong and Bac Binh districts, the drought area expanded to the north and the west. 220.127.116.11 Climate change scenarios for Binh Thuan5 a) Temperature The findings from the climate change scenarios for Binh Thuan showed: during the months from December – February, the temperature increase is less than in other seasons. According to the high emission scenario A2, at the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperatures are likely to increase with 3.1oC, while with the medium emission scenario this increase is 2.5oC; that of the low emission scenarios is 1.6oC. In the mid-21st century, the annual average temperature tends to increase from north to south and from east to west. The northern districts of Tuy Phong and Bac Binh have an increase of average temperature from 1.1 to 1.2oC. In Duc Linh, Tanh Linh, northwest of Ham Thuan Nam district and most parts of the Ham Tan district the increase is above 1.3oC. Other districts have increases from 1.2 to 1.3oC. By the end of the 21st century, the annual average temperature tends to increase similarly to the mid- century, with an increase in the range from 2.1 to 2.6oC. The highest average temperature (Txtb) also increases, with the highest increase in the fall from June to August, higher than in other seasons of the year. The highest average temperature increases about 1.8oC in the mid-21st century and about 2.8oC at the end of the century. Average low temperature tends to increase the most during the months of September to November. Compared to the period of 1980 - 1999, the average low temperature may increase 1.7oC in the mid-21st century and about 2.9oC at the end of the 21st century. In Phu Quy Island, the average temperature also tends to increase significantly in the summer, with a lower degree of increase in the spring and autumn and the lowest increase in the winter. By the mid-21st century, the increase may reach 1.3 ° C and up to 2.4 ° C by the end of the century. b) Precipitation Rainfall in the dry season in Binh Thuan has differentiations in the level of increase or decrease amongst various areas in the province. The average rainfall in the dry season has a projected increase for the end of the 21st century of 1.4% (B1 scenario), 2.1% (B2 scenario) and 2.7% (A2 scenario). Rainfall during the rainy season across the province tends to increase, with an increase at the end of the 21st century of 1.9%, 3.0% and 3.9% respectively for the low, medium and high emission scenarios. In the mid-21st century, in the south of Tuy Phong, Bac Binh districts, southeast of Ham Thuan Bac district, Phan Thiet City and the east of Ham Thuan Nam district, the rainfall increase will be 1.5%. In most parts of Duc Linh, Tanh Linh, northwest of Ham Thuan Bac district and a small area in the north of Binh Nam district, the rainfall increase will be below 1%. Other areas of the province will have increases from 1 to 1.5%. By the end of the 21st century, in the south of Tuy Phong district, Bac Binh, Ham Thuan Bac, Phan Thiet City and most areas of Ham Thuan Nam district, the rainfall 5 Climate change scenarios for Binh Thuan, 2011
10 increase varies from 2.5 to more than 3%; in the north of Duc Linh, Tanh Linh district and northwest of Ham Thuan Bac district, the increase will be less than 1.5%; other areas may show increases from 1.5 to 2.5%. Figure 7. The increase in the average temperature in the mid-21st century compared to the period 1980 to 1999 in Binh Thuan with medium emissions scenario (B2) Figure 8. The change in annual rainfall in the mid- 21st century compared to the period 1980 to 1999 in Binh Thuan with medium emission scenario (B2) In mid-21st century, in the south of Tuy Phong district, Bac Binh, southeast of Ham Thuan Bac district, Phan Thiet City and the east of Ham Thuan Nam district rainfall increase will be 1.5%. By the end of the 21st century, most areas of the province will have a highest daily rainfall increase from 100 to 175%, some areas even will have a 175% increase. In the mid-21st century, the highest daily rainfall in Binh Thuan during the year will have increased with 75 to 150%; specifically in the west of Ham Thuan Nam district, southeast of Tanh Linh districts and the east of Ham Tan district a higher rate of increase is indicated: from 150 to 175%. By the end of the 21st century, in most areas of the province, the highest daily rainfall annually will increase from 100 to 175%; some areas may have a 175% increase. In Binh Thuan droughts often occur, even during the rainy season. An assessment, using the drought index in 2020, showed an extended drought area in the north of Duc Linh and Tanh Linh districts; some communities in the northwest of Ham Thuan Bac and Ham Thuan Nam district will have serious droughts; most of the Ham Tan district will also have droughts. In 2050, dominated area of Binh Thuan will be effected by serious drought. c) Sea level rise The highest projected sea level rise due to climate change in Binh Thuan province by 2100 is of about 84-102 cm according to the high emission scenario, 62-77 cm in the medium emission scenario and 53-68 in the low emission scenario. In the first 50 years of the 21st century, sea level will rise at a slower rate (about 20 cm/50 years) than the last 50 years.
11 2.1.3 Climate change scenario for Can Tho 18.104.22.168 Observed climate changes in Can Tho in recent decades a) Temperature In Can Tho, the average temperature in January and July and the annual average temperature tend to increase; both the absolute values and the anomalies show high increases in winter and lower ones in summer. The annual increase was not significant. In the past 30 years, the average temperature in January increased about 0.2oC per decade; that of July was 0.1oC / decade; and the annual average was 0.2oC / decade. Figure 9. The trend of annual mean temperature anomaly observed in Can Tho stations The highest maximum temperature increased about 0.4oC / decade and the lowest minimum temperature about 0.5oC / decade. In the period of 1978 - 2007, the number of days with temperatures below 20oC decreased; the average during the decade 1978 to 1987 was 5.9 days; in the next decade this was 3.6 days; and in the decade of 1998 - 2007 it was 3.0 days. The average number of days with temperatures above 35oC (Tx) changed slightly and showed no clear trend. Table 1: Number of days with temperature Tm <20 ° C, Tx> 35 ° C during the period of 1978-2007 The number of days with temperatures <20 ° C The number of days with temperatures >35 ° C 1978- 1987 1988- 1997 1998- 2007 1978- 1987 1988- 1997 1998- 2007 0 5 4 13 3 27 3 3 6 0 1 0 2 0 0 3 4 0 12 0 3 2 2 2 16 4 2 5 1 2 6 7 3 25 0 1 2 9 0 4 0 6 4 4 4 0 0 11 9 4 1 0 0 2 5 0 7 6 0 2
12 b) Precipitation In Can Tho, in the last 40 years dry season rainfall increased with about 25.8% per decade compared with the period of 1980-1999. In contrast, the rainy season precipitation tends to decrease, but not significantly, only about 1% per decade. The annual rainfall increased with 0.5% per decade. The observed increase in the dry season is much higher than that of the rainy season. Daily maximum and 5-day rainfalls fluctuated and tend to increase over time. The highest daily rainfall reached 230.4 mm in 2006 and the 5-day rainfall reached 293.6 mm in 2000 . c) Sea level rise According to measurements, sea level rise was about 3 mm / year, consistent with the trend of sea level rise across coastal areas of Vietnam 6. The highest average sea level rise in this shows a rate of 4.4 mm / year, while the lowest shows a decrease: -1.5 mm / year. Overall this indicates an increase in sea level rise in this area. d) Tropical cyclones and low pressures Can Tho city is less affected by tropical cyclones and tropical depressions than other region. During the period of 1961 – 2007, only 9 strikes affected the area. On average, each decade has three strikes affecting Can Tho. The period from 1961 - 1984 (14 years) has only 1 strike, the following year the number of tropical cyclones increased slightly but not more than 1 strike per year. In the 9 strikes, there were 3 tropical depressions and six tropical cyclones with different magnitude. 6 Kịch bản BĐKH nước biển dâng cho Việt Nam, 2009 Figure 10. The number of days with rainfall above 50mm periods 1978- 2007
13 Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Can Tho city, 2011 22.214.171.124 Climate change scenarios for Can Tho7 a) Temperature According to the climate change and sea level rise scenarios for the city of Can Tho, the average temperature in Can Tho tends to increase, during the months of June to August; the temperature may rise faster than in other periods. In the mid-21st century, the average emission scenario B2 indicates that the mean annual temperature will increase 1.2oC and at the end of the century, in the high-emission scenario A2, the increase in the average temperature may be up to 3.0oC. In Can Tho City in the mid-21st century, temperature tends to increase from the north to the south. In the northwest districts of Vinh Thanh, Thot Not the increase will be less than 1oC. Ninh Kieu, Cai Rang and Binh Thuy, and Phong Dien districts have an increase of over 1.2 °C. At the end of the century, average temperature increase will be differentiated clearly between the districts of the city: it will be the highest in the eastern districts (above 2.2 °C) and the lowest in the northwest districts (less than 1.8oC). The highest maximum temperature (Tx) also tends to increase, with the highest rate in the months of September to November while the lowest increase would occur during the months of December to February. The lowest minimum temperature will increase the most in the months of June to August. The increase at the end of the century will be about 4.4oC. Compared to the period of 1980 – 1999, the annual lowest minimum temperature may have risen with 4oC at the end of 21st century. Figure 11. The increase in the average temperature in the mid-21st century compared to the period of 1980-1999 in Can Tho with medium emissions scenario (B2) Figure 12. The change in annual rainfall in the mid-21st century compared to the period 1980- 1999 in Can Tho with medium emissions scenario (B2) b) Precipitation Study results on the changes in dry, rainy season and annual rainfall show that: in 7 Climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Can Tho city, 2011
14 the coming decades rainfall during the dry season tends to decrease, while it will increase in the rainy season. The increase rate in the rainy season is faster than the decrease in the dry season. According to the medium emissions scenario, in the mid-21st century, the annual rainfall increases approximately with 3.2% and by the end of the century, the rate would be 6.1%. In Can Tho, the increase of annual rainfall tends to decrease gradually from the east to the west and in some areas of the Thot Not and O Mon districts. In most areas of the Binh Thuy district the annual rainfall in mid-century increases with 3.2%. The west of Vinh Thanh district and an area of Co Do district have an increase of less than 3% . At the end of the 21st century, the annual rainfall in the eastern area of the province will increase over 6%; the districts in the west will have an increase below 6%. c) Sea level rise Sea level rise scenarios for Can Tho were developed for the coast of the Mekong Delta with three scenarios A1FI (high emission scenario), B2 (medium emission scenario), and B1 (low emission scenario). In the first 50 years of the 21st century, sea level will rise at a slower rate (20-25 cm/50 years) compared with the last 50 years. According to the high emission scenario, sea levels tend to rise faster than in the medium and low scenarios. By the mid-21st century, sea level will have risen about 22-30 cm. At the end of the century, sea level rise attributed to climate change in the Mekong Delta will be about 79-99 cm in the high emission scenario, 59-75 cm in the medium emission scenario and 51-66 cm in the low emission scenario. At the end of the 21st century, in the high emission scenario, the majority of Can Tho city area will be at risk of flooding if there is no timely response. 2.1.4. In summary Study results and analyses of provincial climate change scenarios presented above show that the changes in temperature are similar. The temperature in hot season (summer) increases faster than in winter. The average temperature, highest maximum and lowest minimum temperature tend to increase with a high rate in summer (June to August) and lower in winter (December - February). Geographically, the southwest region of Binh Dinh has a higher rate of increase than the northeast and the east of the province. In Binh Thuan, similar to Binh Dinh, the period of December - February will have a lower temperature increase than other seasons. The annual average temperature tends to increase from the north to the south and from the east to the west. In Phu Quy Island, the average temperature also tends to increase with a high rate in summer, followed by spring, fall and winter with the lowest increase rate. In Can Tho, the average temperature during the period of June to August may rise faster than in other periods. The areas with the highest increase are the eastern districts, while the lowest rate of increase will occur in the north-western districts of the city. Rainfall: In Binh Dinh and Can Tho, dry season rainfall tends to decrease, the rainy season tends to increase, and the increase rate in rainy season is faster than the decrease in dry season. Maximum daily and 5-day rainfall in most of Binh Dinh increase significantly, from 75 to 100% Particularly in Binh Thuan, rainfall in both dry and rainy seasons across the province tends to increase. The maximum daily rainfall per year in Binh Thuan increased from 75 to 150%, even to 175% in some places. However, Binh Thuan frequently experiences droughts. Rising sea levels caused by climate change in 2100 will be highest in Binh Dinh,
15 reaching 83-97 cm; in Binh Thuan this is 84-102 cm; and in the Mekong Delta and Can Tho it will be about 79-99 cm. Details are presented in the specialized report: climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Binh Thuan, Binh Dinh and Can Tho city. The detailed scenarios are the basis for the assessment for the provinces of impacts and vulnerability caused by climate change. 2.2 Assessment of the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on socio-economic development plans of the provinces An assessment of climate change impacts is to identify the effects caused by climate change. The effects can either be adverse or beneficial. Impact assessment should first be done for the present situation (in the context of economic, social, environmental conditions); then an evaluation of impacts of climate change can be done for the future (with the climate change scenarios and economic, social and environmental conditions in the future – according to the time frame of the assessment). Assessment of future climate change impacts are based on climate change and sea level rise scenarios and socio-economic development plans and or when there are significant adjustments in strategy, policy, development planning and socio-economic development . Impact assessment of climate change can be done by sectors, areas, ecosystems boundary or river basins. Within the framework of a provincial plan, the evaluation approach using geographic region and sector is recommended. For provinces, the overall assessment for the entire province is conducted primarily. On that basis an in- depth evaluation is conducted for the sectors in provinces / cities and areas which are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. During the project implementation in the province, the scope and content of impact assessment has been defined for each province of Binh Dinh, Binh Thuan and Can Tho city. The overall assessment is the basis for in-depth reviews of sectors / areas most affected by climate change, such as agriculture, fisheries and infrastructure planning in Can Tho. For Binh Thuan the focus is on water resources, fisheries, tourism and especially Phu Quy island district. Binh Dinh focuses on agricultural and rural development, aquaculture and tourism which are most affected by climate change. The sensitive areas of the coastal provinces and mountainous areas, especially Tay Son District were evaluated in detail. 2.2.1 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change in Binh Dinh Binh Dinh is a central coastal province which has dissected topography creating complex climate and hydrological regimes. During the dry season, drought often occurs while the rainy season comes with storms, floods and erratic rains. If sea level rises 1 m, there will be approximately 127 km2 in Binh Dinh at risk of flooding and saline intrusion; infrastructure and transport system will be destroyed and socio-economic development in Binh Dinh province will be seriously affected in all aspects. Therefore, assessment of risks and impacts of climate change on key sectors such as: water resources, agriculture, health and fisheries, and sensitive and vulnerable areas in Binh Dinh province are highly important. From the evaluation of losses and damages caused by climate change in various sectors in Binh Dinh province, the climate change impact assessment and the vulnerability assessment for socio-economic development of Binh Dinh, the most affected sectors are: (i) agriculture and rural development, (ii) natural resources and environment, (iii) aquaculture production and fisheries resources (iv) medical care and
16 public health, (v) energy, construction and transport, and (vi) tourism. Each area was assessed in detail according to the assessment procedures and steps8. Identification of targets to be assessed and assessment of potential climate risks according to climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh are incorporated in the impact assessment and the level of climate risks to various vulnerable sector and regions in Binh Dinh as mentioned above. Some specific results are as follows: In the agricultural sector, specifically crops of rice, soybean, maize, sugar cane and peanuts, climate change will affect the growth period and the horticultural structure, leading to losses and reductions of productivity and cultivation areas; higher soil salinity due to sea level rise; lower agricultural productivity; lower yield in many crops; reduced income from agricultural production and insufficient food storage. Sea level rise in Binh Dinh could increase salt water intrusion into estuaries and Con and Ha Thanh rivers, affecting agricultural land in Nhon Binh, Nhon Phu and Nhon Hoi wards (Quy Nhon). In addition, dry season rainfall will decrease 1.3 - 2.4% and temperature will rise from 0.4 to 0.8oC in the next 10-20 years, droughts will increase; this will affect yields of 11 major agricultural crops. In the field of aquaculture and fisheries, climate change will cause sea level rise, higher tides, strong storm surges and waves which will negatively affect aquaculture infrastructure and the fishing industry. Water temperature rise will cause environmental changes in aquacultural farms, causing an increase in aquatic diseases. Climate change will also cause damages to the aquaculture infrastructure: ponds, lagoons, and will cause water scarcity, and water pollution. In the rainy season, flooding will cause further difficulties for protection of aquaculture activities. In Binh Dinh, fishing industry under climate change impacts will face more challenges. High economic value fish will be reduced in many fisheries. Increased magnitude and frequency of tropical cyclones, whirlwinds and strong waves will obstruct the operation of fishing boats and may cause losses to people lives. Increased air temperature will increase sea surface warming; salinity changes would jeopardize the reef and vegetation in the areas of Nhon Hai, Nhon Ly, Nhon Chau, and Ghenh Rang in the city of Quy Nhon, which have the role of wave shield for coastal areas. The fisheries in coastal and lagoon areas from Quy Nhon to Hoai Nhon will move farther from the shores; the fishing season for anchovies, mackerel and codfish from March to May at the fisheries in the province has been changed and disturbed in recent years. Droughts occur more frequently due to the high number of sunny days, large water evaporation rate and water loss from ponds and lakes. Especially during the dry season, decreased rainfall caused widespread and prolonged droughts, some places in the province had to harvest early or abandon aquaculture farms. For the forestry sector, impacts of climate change include: temperature rise, lower humidity, reduced fire risk due to higher rainfall, forest fire season change. Climate change, however, also causes forest pests and will affect biodiversity. Impacts of climate change on livestock: Climate change leads to abrupt changes, extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rainfall during the rainy season, dry season droughts, storms and floods, which will affect animal species, causing new 8 The guidelines "Assessment of climate change impacts and identification of adaptation measures", IMHEN, 2012
17 and/or higher threat of epidemics. Natural disasters also adversely affect infrastructure and livestock. Impacts of climate change on energy sector development, transportation and construction: According to the 2020 development plan of Binh Dinh province, the road network in the province will have two new large scale routes and it is likely to experience negative impacts in the highway of Quang Ngai - Qui Nhon - Nha Trang which connects to national highways and provincial roads in the west to facilitate socio- economic development and social security in the west of the province. Transport systems, infrastructure and buildings will be heavily affected by prolonged floods in the form of damages of material and prolonged delay in progress of the construction works. Large-scale works and some key roads in Binh Dinh province which are being built as plan will be affected significantly by climate change. According to the 2020 development plan of the energy sector in Binh Dinh province, the power supply system, including the system of substations and high, medium and low voltage transmission lines, has been built to ensure electricity for production and consumption in various phases. Climate change will not affect energy planning at this stage. Impacts on rural areas: Climate change will increase extreme weather events such as droughts and floods, causing losses in productivity and crop yields. Sea level will rise with 8-14 cm within 10-20 years, causing some losses to agricultural cultivation areas such as rice, vegetables and fruit. The increase in extreme weather events such as storm and tropical cyclones could also narrow the area of aquaculture production in coastal districts of Phu My, Phuoc Tuy, Quy Nhon, Hoai Nhon, leading to reduced productivity, reduced income and a higher rate of poverty. Health and sanitation: In the context of climate change and environmental issues, Binh Dinh province faces increased flooding in the rainy season. The poor drainage system will cause pollution, and untreated wastewater discharge causes eutrophication. For water resources, climate change will not affect significantly the quantity but changes in water distribution, impacts of extreme events and increase in demand for water will lead to water shortage. For example, for the Kone - Ha Thanh River basin, water shortage will be about 435 million m³/year, accounting for 31% - 34% of domestic demand. Impacts on land use: If sea level rises 1 meter, an area of 127km2 will be flooded, taking up 2% of the total area of the province, while some areas of the province will experience higher salinity. Figure 13. The flooded area in coastal districts corresponding to the B2 scenario
18 Figure 14. Map of flooding risk in Binh Dinh with 1m sea level rise scenarios Impacts on biodiversity: climate change will seriously affect habitats, reducing habitats for various species and the number of individuals significantly. The interactions between species within ecosystems will be altered by natural disasters, especially when the food chain is broken. Threats of species’ extinction will be higher, causing the disappearance of rare genes, and diseases will spread. Impacts on tourism: tourism activities in Binh Dinh province are heavily affected by climate change. Impacts will be imposed on tourism resources, tourist attractions including natural tourism resources. Climate change also affects the tourism infrastructure, especially the transport system, accommodation facilities and entertainment areas. Climate change may also affect, both directly and indirectly, cultural activities and travel services. The eco-tourism zones, tourism infrastructure, resorts and major hotels in the coastal areas would be inundated, causing re- establishment or postponement of business. The natural disasters caused by climate change will also seriously affect development plans of tourism industry in Binh Dinh. Climate change will increase extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, whirlwinds and floods in Binh Dinh in both frequency and intensity. Sea travel would be the most affected while revenue from sea travel is accounted for 70% of tourism revenue, annually attracting around 60% of international visitors and 50% of domestic tourists. The most affected areas: The area of interest are the coastal hills. Binh Dinh Province has 134 km of coastline, including five district-level administrative units: Hoai Nhon, Phu My, Phu Cat, Tuy Phuoc and Quy Nhon city. Coastal areas account for 35.6% of the province and 68% of the population. This area has great economicpotential. However, the harsh climate with erratic variations due to climate change are major challenges for the coastal areas. Climate change and sea level rise will cause saltwater intrusion into coastal lowlands, from which the cultivated area is shrinking. In the rainy season, houses, land and other property were swept out to sea. Flooding and sea level rise in coastal Binh Dinh province will become more severe due to climate change. If sea levels rises 1 meter in Binh Dinh, coastal areas at risk of flooding are approximately 127 km2 (accounting for approximately 2% of the total area of the province). If sea level rises 70 cm, there will be approximately 60 km2 in Binh Dinh at risk of flooding. Areas most at risk of flooding are Phuoc Hoa, Phuoc Son, Phuoc Thuan (Tuy Phuoc district) communes and part of the area adjacent to the city of Quy Nhon and Tuy Phuoc district. Also, some coastal communities in the districts of Phu Cat, Phu My, Hoai Nhon are at risks of flooding. In hilly areas, the risk of flash floods is imminent in the northern and southern parts of the province, especially in the districts of An Lao, Hoai Nhon, Hoai An, Vinh
19 Thanh, Van Canh, and Tay Son. Climate change impacts such as heavy rain or prolonged rainfall will be the main cause of landslides. From the evaluation of losses and damages caused by climate change in various sectors in Binh Dinh province, climate change impact assessment and vulnerability assessment for socio-economic development of Binh Dinh, the most affected sectors are: (i) agriculture and rural development, (ii) natural resources and environment, (iii) aquaculture production and fisheries resources (iv) medical care and public health, (v) energy, construction and transport, and (vi) tourism. Each area was assessed in detail according to the assessment procedures and steps  Identification of targets to be assessed and assessment of potential climate risks according to climate change scenarios for Binh Dinh have incorporated impact assessment and the level of climate risks to various vulnerable sector and regions in Binh Dinh as mentioned above. Detailed results can be found in the report "Assessment of the risks and impacts of climate change on socio-economic development plan in different phases of Binh Dinh province" . 2.2.2 Assessment of impacts and risks of climate change on Binh Thuan province Binh Thuan is a coastal province of South Central, located in the arid region, with more sunshine, windy and no winter. Climate change has a great impact on the lives and livelihoods of the local communities and the economy in Binh Thuan. The assessment of climate change impacts and risks provides technical support and close coordination with line departments of Binh Thuan province to propose measures to adapt to climate change impacts. It outlines a number of projects on climate change adaptation in Binh Thuan province. The activities supported by the project in Binh Thuan include: Assessment of changes in climate processes, extremes events and climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Binh Thuan province; Assessment of risks and impact of climate change on key areas, sensitive and vulnerable areas in Binh Thuan; Assessment of risks and impacts of climate change on socio-economic development plans for each stage in Binh Thuan province; Analysis and evaluation of strategic planning, economic development plans of Binh Thuan province in the context of climate change; Identification of adaptation and GHG mitigation measures; identification of priority projects, development of detailed proposals for the priority project, Assessment of water balance and transfer of water resources management model to Binh Thuan. Results of the assessments are to determine the selection of measures to adapt to climate change and develop greenhouse gas mitigation measures and to mainstream climate change into policies, planning and socio-economic development plan of Binh Thuan province. The main results are as follows: Climate change and sea level rise seriously affected areas, natural systems, and different economic and social sectors in the province such as: agriculture, forestry, fisheries, transportation, energy, tourism, public health, livelihoods and poverty, and biodiversity and water resources in particular.
20 Figure. 15. . Map of flooding risk in Binh Thuan with 1m sea level rise scenarios 100 cm The impact of climate change alters the flow regime in the river basins and other parts of Binh Thuan province over the base period 1980- 1999). Study results show that the annual flow in Binh Thuan province has increased slightly over the period. For example, at Ta Pao station, the average flow during the period of 2020-2039 has an increase of 1.0 m3/s, which is a 0.7% increase compared to the baseline. The river flow during the flood season in Binh Thuan province tends to increase slightly faster than the annual flow. The increase in Ta Pao station is higher than that of Luy River station. Specifically, the average flow in Luy river station increases with 1.4% to 4.4%; at Ta Pao station the increase is between 5.4% and 14.1%. The average dry season flow in the entire river basin decreases during the period of 2020 – 2039; the average flow in the dry season at Luy River station will decrease with1.5% compared to the base period. At Ta Pao station the reduction will be 0.3%; during the period of 2080 – 2099 the average flow in the dry season at Luy River station will be reduced with 5.4%; at Ta Pao station the reduction will be 3.7% compared to the base period. Sea level rise in Binh Thuan imposes floods. The flooded area may not be large but this is an important area for socio-economic development. If the sea level rises 1meter, there will be approximately 45 km2 in Binh Thuan at risk of flooding, accounting for approximately 0.58% of the total area of the province. Regarding the total water demand in the basin over the period of 2020-2099 compared to the period of 1980-1999, there will be a tendency of significant increase due to the change of water needs of agriculture and impacts of climate change. The total water demand in the 2080-2099 period will be 1,184 billion m3; an increase of 97% compared to the period of 1980-1999. The period 2060-2079 will show an increase of 84.6%. The increase in the period 2040-2059 is 71.3%; and 63% for 2020-2039; the rate of water demand increase in the basin in specific periods has been analyzed in detail . The study has evaluated the level of water demand and water shortage of the districts for the period up to 2100 according to emission scenario B2. For example, in 2020, the total volume of water shortage in Phan Thiet city is 3.04 million m3, in La Gi Town it is 0.29 million m3 in Tuy Phong district 3.84 million m3, in Bac Binh District 63.06 million m3, in Ham Thuan Bac district 141.28 million m3, in Ham Thuan Nam district 29.58 million m3, in Tanh Linh districts 27.6 million m3, in Duc Linh district 10.12 million m3 and in Ham Tan district 0.35 million m3. In this study, an assessment of impacts of climate change on the water balance for economic development in the river basins of Binh Thuan province has been based on a medium emission scenario, the socio-economic conditions in 2010 and the socio- economic development plan for 2020. Two technical options were evaluated: Option 1: - The period: Assessment for the current waterinfrastructure use system.
21 - The period of 2020-2099: There are also 3 lakes, namely Phan Dung Lake, Song Mong Lake and Song Dinh Lake which supply water to the river basin. Option 2: - The period: Assessment for the current water infrastructure system.. - The period from 2020-2099: As Option 1 and with additionally an amount of water from Dai Ninh lake to Luy River. Assessment results: Option 1, the period: Total water shortage in the province is at present 286.98 million m3, of which Luy river basin’s water shortage is the highest part with 118.1 million m3 (41.1%), followed by Quao river basin with 107.1 million m3 (37.3%). The lowest is Long Song river basin: only 0.1% of the total water shortage of the province. Period of 2020-2039: total water shortage in the province is 412.7 million m3, an increase of 125.7 million m3, 43.8% increase compared to the period of 1980-1999. The highest water shortage is in Luy river basin with 163.1 million m3 (39.5% compared to the total shortage of the province), followed by Quao river basin with 149.3 million m3 (36,2%), and Dinh Basin has no water shortage as Song Dinh 3 reservoir will be in operation to ensure demand for the basin. Water shortage in the province increases the most in the period of 2080-2099 compared with the period of 1980-1999 , reaching up to 127%, followed by the period 2060-2079 (85.4%), 2040-2059: 64,4% and the lowest is the period from 2020 to 2039 (43.8%). Water shortage in all rivers in Binh Thuan province falls in dry season, the highest shortage will be in April, there will be no water shortages in the flood season; Under option 2, when Song Luy River receives water from the Dai Ninh reservoir with a flow of 8m3 / s, water shortage will be significantly reduced in the second phase from 2020 to 2039 and from 2040 to 2059. Specifically, when there is no water transfer, the total volume of water shortage in Luy river basin during the period of 2020-2039 is 163.1 million m3, after receiving water from Dai Ninh reservoir, water shortage it is only about 0.5 million m3, and during 2080-2099 period, the total water shortage will decrease by nearly a factor of three compared to the case of no water transfer. Study results will provide useful information for the process of water resource management in the province under the impact of climate change. Agriculture is an important area and sensitive to climate change. Climate change can impose different effects on different targets, stages of agricultural crops, structure, seasonality, disease, productivity and output. According to the medium emission scenario B2, the total established area flooded by rising sea levels will be approximately 179km2 in 2050 and up to 234.7km2 in 2100, mainly in Duc Thang, Duc Nghia, Binh Hung wards of Phan Thiet city (downstream of Ca river) and the Phan Ri Cua area. Saline intrusion due to sea level rise also causes changes, conversion of farmland and distribution of plants, especially in coastal areas. Climate change impacts on yield of crops. For example: from 2060 to 2100 corn yield in Phan Thiet will be reduced and will be lower than the province average in the 2010 range with a reduction from 1% - 6.8%. In recent years, agricultural production in the province constantly dealt with severe drought conditions in spring crops. A number of areas in the province are facing the risk of drought (no water supply for production) such as Tuy Phong, Bac Binh, Ham
22 Thuan Nam and Ham Tan. Many hectares of rice and spring crops had to start earlier than expected. Livestock and poultry: Sources of feed supply will reduce, affecting growth and reproduction of animals. Natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, storm surges, strong winds and heavy rain also threaten to increase the life cycle, growth and reproduction of cattle. Climate change also increases the possibility of epidemics and disease in cattle. Productivity and livestock production may be reduced due to fluctuation of temperature and humidity. Higher temperatures may also reduce resistance of the animals and create a favorable environment for the pathogen outbreaks and pandemics. In addition, the increase of droughts and floods will reduce food supply for livestock, according to statistics from the Committee for Flood and Storm Control and Search and Rescue of Binh Thuan province, in 2008 the total number of cattle and poultry washed away was 4,589 heads and 3,606 in 2009, of which poultry was some 2,872 heads and cattle was 367 heads. For Binh Thuan, the dipterocarpus forest in natural reserves such as Nui Ong, Ta Ku may move further to the north, in the higher areas, primary forests in Ta Hoang of Phan Dung commune, Tuy Phong district will also be affected. As a coastal province in the South Central region, with 10 islands of Phu Quy island district and a mountain range along the coast, a number of lagoons such as La Gan, Ke Ga, Mui Ne, Hon Rom and Mui Nho, is created. Therefore ecosystems in Binh Thuan are very rich, especially mangrove ecosystems. Climate change could reduce mangrove forests and gradually shift them to higher areas; the species of high biological productivity will decline due to changes in the food chain. Binh Thuan is one of the hottest spots for droughts in South Central; climate change will increase the risk of forest fires in all areas and especially in the dry season, threatening tropical forest ecosystems. Prolonged heat waves also increase the risk of extinction of species of animals and plants which are not adaptive to the changing environment. Impact of climate change on transportation: Natural disasters have increased threats on the transport and infrastructures in Binh Thuan. The traffic system can be destroyed or damaged by heat waves and floods. Climate change also makes it difficult to upgrade roads to connect to western regions; especially those going through the mountainous area of Binh Thuan are at risk of landslides. Intrusion and coastal erosion increase and hinder the construction and upgrading of roads in the coastal areas from Ba Ria - Vung Tau via La Gi - Phan Thiet - Hoa Phu - Lien Huong to Ninh Thuan. Sea transport means such as vessels will face the risk of strong waves and storm surges. Strong waves, especially during storms, can destroy harbor facilities, causing serious consequences. By 2100, rising sea levels will inundate 1.35 km of highway, 4.54 km of provincial roads, and 25.86 km of other roads in the province, which is 0.46%, 0, 61%, 0.74% respectively of the total system. Tourism: Binh Thuan has become one of the major tourist centers of the country. In 2010, Binh Thuan province welcomed about 2.58 million tourists. Climate change directly affects tourism resources, infrastructure and activities. Natural resources and tourism in coastal areas such as Mui Ne, Binh Thuan, Mui Ke Ga, Ganh Son, Hon Rom, Hon Cau, Co Thach Pagoda can be affected by sea level rise and shore erosion. The nature conservation areas in Binh Thuan such as Bien Lac, Nui Ong and Ta Ku, and primeval forests such as Ta Hoang (Tuy Phong) can be reduced in biodiversity and
23 biosphere reserves. Climate change and sea level rise affect directly the tourism infrastructure, hotels, restaurants, resorts, entertainment facilities; they affect roads, airports, ports, railways, power supply, water supply, communications, and indirectly the operation of the tourism industry. Medical and public health: As in other areas, temperature rise can negatively affect human health, leading to increased risk to all age groups, but especially for the elderly, people with heart issues and neurological diseases. Extreme climate events may occur with higher intensity affecting infrastructure, medical equipment and making it difficult to upgrade the health care system from the grassroots to provincial level. The poor are concentrated in the rural and mountainous areas of Duc Linh and Tanh Linh or coastal areas such as Tuy Phong and Ham Tan. They have become highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Livelihoods, poverty and gender: The poor are concentrated in rural areas, mountainous of Duc Linh, Tanh Linh or in coastal areas such as Tuy Phong, Ham Tan. They become target to the risk of high vulnerability to climate change. Climate change also affects poverty alleviation in rural areas at the same time, making it difficult for the population distribution, construction, operation and management of infrastructure systems in rural areas. For women in high mountain areas, such as Duc Linh, Tanh Linh or Phu Quy island , the risk is even higher due to difficult living conditions. Flooding caused by sea level rise or tropical cyclones will increase water pollution, causing skin diseases and diarrhea. Natural disasters such as drought and flooding will affect supply of food and water leading to respiratory and digestive diseases. The sensitive areas: The districts adjacent to the beach are Tuy Phong, Bac Binh, Phan Thiet city, Ham Thuan Nam, La Gi and Ham Tan district which will be strongly affected by climate change and sea level rise; sea dikes, mangrove forests, infrastructure, including housing systems, production facilities, transportation, power systems, communications and production activities of the people in the region are especially at risk. Salinization due to sea level rise may also affect agricultural production, livelihood and social security. In the context of climate change, coastal districts in the province are affected by different types of natural disasters such as drought, heavy rain, thunder, whirlwinds and especially flooding caused by torrential rains from the mountains. When combined with rising sea levels, the damage will be more severe. The mountainous areas such as Duc Linh and Tanh Linh, although not affected by sea level rise, are affected by the increase of natural disasters such as floods, flash flood, landslides and flooding in low lying areas in the mountains. In addition, due to rising temperatures, drought and prolonged heat waves the risk of forest fires will increase and also water shortages for domestic use and production. Results of the assessment of climate change impact and risks show that in Binh Thuan, in 2020, Ham Thuan Bac district has the highest level of risk, then Bac Binh district. Duc Linh, Tanh Linh and Ham Tan district have a low level of risk, the other districts have an average level of risk. By 2050, the level of risk of the districts in Binh Thuan will not be much different from 2020, with the highest level of risk remaining in Ham Thuan Bac district, and low levels of risk in Duc Linh, Tanh Linh and Ham Tan district. In 2100, except for the two districts of Bac Binh and Ham Thuan Bac with very high level of risk, Ham Tan district will have an increase from low to middle level of
24 risks, the risk in other district remain the same as in the year 2050. 2.2.3 Assessment of the impact of climate change and sea level rise on the socio-economic development plan in Can Tho Can Tho is the largest city on the west shore of the Hau River and it is the geographical centre of Mekong Delta, 75 km to East Sea with a total surface area of 1,390km2,: approximately 3.45% of total area of the Mekong Delta. The natural area of four districts of Ninh Kieu, Binh Thuy, Cai Rang and O Mon is approximately 287km2; Thot Not urban district and 4 districts of Phong Dien, Co Do, Vinh Thanh Thoi Lai take up approximately 1103km2. The elevation reduces from cultivation areas along the Hau River and Can Tho River to the inland area. Can Tho city has a dense network of rivers and canals. The assessment of impact and vulnerability to climate change for the city considered the following main factors: heavy rainfall, flooding, storm, the pressure of water supply and other natural resources, high temperatures and heat waves; health problems related to climate change and sea level rise; increased frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heavy rain, storms, drought in urban area, impact on health and health care systems and economic impacts on society. Increased heavy rainfall will lead to flooding in Can Tho with a higher frequency. Not only will flooding occur during the rainy season but also during the dry season, especially when river floods and high tides occur at the same time. The year 2000 was a year with major floods when a vast area in the city of Can Tho was flooded; floods with a depth > 50 cm took up to nearly 76% of city area and with a depth > 1m up to 39.4%. According to research findings, about 800km of roads were flooded, which accounts for about 98% of the total length of the roads in Can Tho during this historic flood in the year 2000. Impacts of climate change on flooding in Can Tho were considered in an overall assessment of climate change impacts in the entire Mekong Delta. An overall assessment should consider the whole system from the upstream water volume to sea level rise with changes in rainfall and water demand in the region under climate change impacts. The plan includes the following options: 1. The base period: Description of the historical flood events in 2000 on the system, study results obtained by this method were used as a basis for comparison with the results of other options. 2. Option F1: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 15 cm; 3. Option F2: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 26 cm; 4. Option F3: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 32 cm; 5. Option F4: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 50 cm; 6. Option F5: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 70 cm;
25 Figure 16. Map of flooding risk in Can Tho city with 0.5 m sea level rise scenarios 7. Option F6: Description of changes in flood in the system with the 2000 flood in Kratie and sea level rise of 100 cm. Isis, a hydrodynamic model, and topographic maps prepared by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, developed in 2009 are used for the assessment. When such abrupt and extreme events occur as the flood similar to the year 2000, Can Tho city can be inundated up to 90-96% of the whole city area with a depth of 0.5 m at the end of this century. Areas with a higher depth of flood, more than 1m, can be around 67-80% of the city area. The wards of Hung Loi, Xuan Khanh, An Lac, An Khu, Tan An, An Hoi, An Cu, Cai Khe of Ninh Kieu district and the wards of Thanh Hung, Hung Phu of Cai Rang district have high elevation and may not be flooded in full, most of the other districts in Can Tho city will be affected by severe flooding and sea level rise. The inundated area from flooding due to sea level rise will be increasing according to climate change scenarios. As sea levels rise to 70cm, the flooded area with a depth> 0.5 m will be 1266 km2 (395 km2 increase compared to the baseline period) and the flooded area with a depth > 1 m will be 934 km2 (691 km2 increase). With rising sea levels of 100cm, flood areas with a depth > 0.5m will be 1336 km2 (465 km2 increase) and the flooded area with a depth > 1 m will be 1224 km2 (981 km2 increase). Drought: Along with floods, drought tends to increase due to a combination of problems such as increase of evaporation, temperature and reduced rainfall during the dry season. The possibility of drought in Can Tho is also rapidly increasing with increasing salinity which makes it more difficult for the water supply for production and daily life in many areas. Using matrix methods and data analysis for assessment from ArcGIS software, based on the combined results of calculation of flooding due to climate change and sea level rise scenarios and socio-economic development of Can Tho city in 2020, the impact of climate change on some areas and sectors are calculated as follows. Impact on agriculture: an unusual distribution of rainfall during the year will be a larger obstacle to rice production than rainfall level because they can cause droughts or local flooding. Combined with higher rainfall, floods can cause serious damage to winter or late summer-autumn crops. In Can Tho, the area for spring crop is the largest cultivation area, therefore the damages are also higher than for summer and
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