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Stories to Watch 2014 - Europe

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Published on February 21, 2014

Author: WorldResources

Source: slideshare.net

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What stories will impact people and the planet in 2014? On 18 February 2014, Executive Vice President and Managing Director Manish Bapna offered his perspectives on the major global developments in economics, business, natural resources and sustainability in the coming year. The event was hosted by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands. Find out more at http://www.wri.org.
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1 FEATURING Manish Bapna Executive Vice President, WRI Image: Flickr/NA.dir

ECONOMIC RECESSION IS OVER 7% 6% 5% GDP GROWTH 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% 2007 Source: IMF, 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

EMERGING ECONOMIES SLOWING BUT ROBUST 16% 14% GDP GROWTH 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2007 -2% Source: IMF, 2013 BRAZIL 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GLOBAL GDP – GETTING BACK ON TRACK Real GDP (2005 dollars) $100tr 2030 $50tr $30tr $15 trillion 1990 1970 Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service 2010

THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL MIDDLE CLASS 5 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion 1990 Source: Reuters, OECD 2010 2010 2030

1.2 billion 100 million people living on less than $1.25 per day children undernourished or underweight 123 million 1 billion youth lacking basic literacy skills lack basic sanitation facilities (UNDP 2013)

UNFINISHED BUSINESS 1.2 Billion Overweight Hungry 900 Million

EXPONENTIAL ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS

THE BIG QUESTION Can we have economic growth and tackle poverty and sustainability at the same time?

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? 1 SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? Image: istockphoto

The world needs to close the food gap 69% INCREASE IN FOOD CALORIES TO FEED 9.6 BILLION BY 2050 Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

The world needs agriculture to support economic development Source: World Bank. 2012. World Development Indicators. Accessible at: <http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Home.aspx> (accessed December 13, 2012).

The world needs to reduce agriculture’s impact on the environment 70% Water withdrawals 37% 24% of Earth’s landmass Greenhouse gas emissions (Photo: Oxfam International /Flickr)

32% Increased rate of annual yield improvement needed between now and 2050 Source: WRI analysis based on Alexandratos, N., and J. Bruinsma. 2012. World agriculture towards 2030/2050: The 2012 revision. Rome: FAO.

Most studies project net adverse impacts on crop yields due to climate change (3° C warmer world) Source: World Bank. 2010. World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change. Washington, DC: World Bank.

Menu for a sustainable food future (preliminary) Consumption     Production  Sustainably increase crop yields  Boost yields through attentive crop breeding  Improve soil and water management  Expand onto low-carbon degraded lands  Sustainably increase “livestock” productivity  Increase productivity of pasture and grazing lands  Reduce then stabilize wild fish catch  Increase productivity of aquaculture Production methods  Improve livestock feeding efficiency  Increase the efficiency of fertilizer use  Manage rice paddies to reduce emissions Reduce food loss and waste Shift to healthier diets Achieve replacement level fertility Reduce biofuel demand for food crops

Reduce food loss and waste along the value chain (Percent of kcal lost or wasted) Note: Numbers may not sum to 100 due to rounding. Source: WRI analysis based on FAO. 2011. Global food losses and food waste—extent, causes and prevention. Rome: FAO.

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will global warming start to seriously affect yields? 2. Will the food loss and waste movement build momentum?

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? 2 1 WATER AT RISK? Image: istockphoto

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM: WATER IS A GLOBAL RISK Water crises

THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY Aqueduct maps used in 2011 National Intelligence Estimate on Water Security requested by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton

WATER SCARCITY IS NEWS

WATER SCARCITY WILL INTENSIFY People in absolute water scarcity 1.8 B Tens of millions will be displaced in arid, semi-arid regions 2025 2022 1.2 B 2014 Source: United Nations 2018

IN TIMES OF SCARCITY: POOR PEOPLE GET SQUEEZED

AQUEDUCT WATER RISK ATLAS

WORLD’S LEADING WATER INFORMATION PLATFORM - 15,000 catchments - 12 indicators of water risk - All open data publicly available - Current estimates and future projections

WATER 39% of irrigated cropland in this region is located ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE STRESSin areas of water stress concern Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture NOW

WATER STRESS ON IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture (IPCC Scenario A1B)

WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY NOW Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025 WATER STRESS AND POWER PLANT CAPACITY 2025 Change in Water Stress by 2025 and Power Plants (IPCC Scenario A1B)

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will water shortages begin to seriously affect agriculture output and power production? 2. Will governments and companies take aggressive action to reduce water risks?

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? 3 1 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? Image: istockphoto

CITIES ARE BOOMING 274,000 people added to cities each day for next 30 years Image: Harvey Barrison; Source: UN-Habitat

AND URBAN GROWTH IS SPEEDING UP Time required to reach 2 million: Rome, Italy Vienna, Austria Vancouver, B.C. Shenzhen, China 2000 years 400 years 115 years 20 years

CITIES ARE ECONOMIC DRIVERS 65% global GDP growth in major cities Image: istockphoto; Source: McKinsey and Company

URBAN POOR LACK ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES

BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES • 75% of GHG emissions come from cities • 1.3 million people die prematurely due to urban air pollution Image: Flickr/PauloFehlauer; Sources: UN-Habitat, UNFCCC, WHO

BUT, CITIES BRING CHALLENGES $1 trillion Projected cost to coastal cities without adaptation

THIS? Image: Flickr/RodrigoSolon

OR THIS? Image: Flikr/Andreas

CITIES: PROBLEM OR SOLUTION? Per capita emissions of CO2 equivalent (2011) Source: Cai et al. 2013, Hoornweg et al. 2011, Olivier et al. 2012

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will cities in Asia grow - up or out? Image: Flickr/DylanPassmore

4 1 RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? Image: Flickr/USAID Kenya

FORESTS UNDER PRESSURE 50 Image: WRI; Source: Hansen et al.2013, WRI soccer fields lost each minute

BUT, THERE’S HOPE… 2bn Source: Global Partnership on Forest Landscape Restoration hectares with opportunities for forest landscape restoration

SOUTH KOREA: RESTORATION INTO FORESTS 1960 2000 Image: WRI

NIGER: RESTORATION INTO AGROFORESTRY Pre-1990s Image: WRI Today

THE BONN CHALLENGE 150m hectares under restoration by 2020 Image: Flickr/CIFOR; Source: WRI

BONN CHALLENGE: BENEFITS 150m RESTORED HECTARES • $84 billion in economic benefits per year • 1 gigatons of CO2e stored per year • Biodiversity, cultural and other benefits Image: Flickr/CIFOR; ource: IUCN

A GROWING MOVEMENT BRAZIL - PACTO COSTA RICA EL SALVADOR (1m ha) (1m ha) (1m ha) Source: WRI RWANDA (2m ha) USA (15m ha)

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will more countries make commitments when they meet in June 2014? 2. Will a new global movement for restoration emerge? Image:

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 5 1 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? Image: istockphoto

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP 370% increase in palm oil production in 20 years Image: Flickr/carsten_tb; Source: FAO

PALM OIL: A MAJOR CROP 50% of grocery store products contain palm oil Source: National Geographic 2013

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI

SEIZING WIN-WINS: REDUCING DEFORESTATION Image: WRI

A NEW APPROACH

A NEW APPROACH “There is a strong and rapidly growing demand for traceable, deforestation-free palm oil, and we intend to meet it as a core element of our growth strategy.” –Kuok Khoon Hong, CEO of Wilmar Source: Wilmar Press Release 2013

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH TESSO NILO NATIONAL PARK

SPOTLIGHT ON FORESTS: GLOBAL FOREST WATCH Image: Jufri/ Greenpeace

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will better information expedite the shift to sustainable palm oil? 2. Will other industries follow? Image: istockphoto

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? 6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? Image: istockphoto SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR?

2013: A YEAR OF POLLUTION 189 days of high pollution in Beijing in 2013 Image: Flickr/Leniners

POPULAR UNREST 3m mentions of “PM 2.5” on SINA WEIBO, Jan 2013 Image: Flickr/Robert Moposang; Source: The Guardian

A DRIVER OF POLLUTION 50% Image: WRI; source: EIA 2013 global coal consumed by China

TAKING ACTION: AIR $277bn budgeted for anti-pollution measures in the next 5 years Image: WRI; Source: China Daily

TAKING ACTION: CUTTING COAL Ban on New Coal Plants in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou Image: Flickr/Jonathan Kos-Read; source: ChinaFAQs

TAKING ACTION: ENFORCEMENT 8 cities in China fined by provincial government for air pollution Image: Flickr/Bert Van Djik; Source: Xinhua

TAKING ACTION: MORE RENEWABLES 12 GW solar capacity added in China, the record for any country in a single year Image: Wikimedia: Bloomberg

WHAT TO WATCH 1. A tipping point on air pollution? 2. More progress to rein in coal? 3. Will new renewables outpace fossil fuels? Image: WRI

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? 7 1 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? Image: Wikimedia istockphoto RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE?

NEARLY 100 COUNTRIES WITH GHG GOALS Source: UNFCCC

THE BRUTAL ARITHMETIC 200 Years it took us to use half the world’s carbon budget 30 Years it will take us to use the other half at current rate To stay within 2° of warming, emissions should peak by 2020

UNBURNABLE CARBON 3000 Coal 65% 2500 Two thirds of reserves “unburnable” Gt CO2 2000 1500 1000 Oil 22% 500 Gas 13% 0 Budget Source: Rystad Energy, Carbon Tracker Proven reserves

EUROPEAN COMMISSION POST-2020 PROPOSAL 40% Reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 below 1990 levels 27% Image: istockphoto; Source: UCS Renewable energy across EU by 2030

US POST-2020 TARGET 17% Image: Flickr/The White House; Source: White House emissions reduction by 2020

IPCC REPORTS – MARCH & APRIL Image: Flickr/Gavin Golden

NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY – SEPTEMBER Image: WRI

CLIMATE CHANGE SUMMIT – SEPTEMBER Image: Flickr/UNClimateChange

PATHWAY TO PARIS Image: Wikimedia

We are at a pivotal moment Hyogo Framework for Action on disaster risk reduction Conference on Financing for Development Post-2015 Development Framework UNFCCC COP 21 2015

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Will growing evidence spur public pressure? 2. Will a mid-term US strategy emerge? 3. Will the EU continue to lead? Image: Flickr/Philip Roeland

SHIFTING TO A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE? WATER AT RISK? THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW? RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 1 8 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE? Image: istockphoto CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

A MOMENT OF OPPORTUNITY • 3 of the 4 largest democracies to elect heads of government • 25% of world’s population • 40% of the global poor Image: istockphoto

ELECTIONS: BRAZIL 136m voters in Brazil Image: Flickr/Dilma Rousseff; Source: IDEA

ELECTIONS: INDIA 780m voters in India Image: Flickr/London Summit; Source: IDEA

ELECTIONS: INDONESIA 160m voters in Indonesia Image: Flickr/World Economic Forum; Source: IDEA

ELECTIONS: EUROPEAN UNION Image: Flickr.EEAS

U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS Image: istockphoto

ELECTIONS MATTER Image: Wikipedia

WHAT TO WATCH 1. Which way will these elections go? 2. What will the results tell us about the future of economic growth, poverty and sustainability? Image: Flickr/Al_Jazeera_English

1 TOWARDS A SUSTAINABLE FOOD FUTURE 2 WATER AT RISK? 3 THE YEAR OF CITIES: HOW WILL THEY GROW RESTORATION: A 2 BILLION HECTARE OPPORTUNITY? 4 5 SUSTAINABLE PALM OIL: A NEW ERA? 6 CHINA: CLEARING THE AIR? 7 UN SUMMIT: MOMENTUM ON CLIMATE? 8 A BILLION VOTERS: WHICH DIRECTION WILL THEY CHOOSE?

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