Space Tourism and Sustainable Development

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Information about Space Tourism and Sustainable Development
Technology

Published on January 1, 2009

Author: guidofawkes

Source: slideshare.net

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Presentation on Space Tourism and Sustainable Development to British Interplanetary Society Space Tourism conference 29th November 2006. Links the development of low cost access to space to the issues of sustainable development.

Space Tourism And Sustainable Development Steven Fawkes 29 th November 2006 BIS European Developments in Space Tourism Conference

Space Tourism and Sustainable Development may seem incompatible but…links on five levels: operational cultural economic resources survival

may seem incompatible but…links on five levels:

operational

cultural

economic

resources

survival

Space Tourism and Sustainable Development Timelines 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 1986: 1st market study 1985: Society Expeditions/Phoenix 1996: X Prize announced 1998: Space Adventures formed 2001: Denis Tito flight to ISS 2004: SpaceShipOne first private spaceflight 2006: Spaceport developments 1968: Seminal papers by Hilton & Ehricke 1972: Club of Rome report 1962: Silent Spring by Rachel Carson 1970: US EPA formed 1990: 1 st IGPCC report on global warming 1997: Kyoto Protocol 2005: GE launch Ecomagination & Walmart launches sustainability objectives 1995: Brent Spar 1973: 1st oil crisis 2000: 50% population live in cities

Sustainable Development “ development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs ” MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES: Population growth Wealth distribution Resources: Water Energy Minerals Food Environment: Atmosphere Land Sea

MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES:

Population growth

Wealth distribution

Resources:

Water

Energy

Minerals

Food

Environment:

Atmosphere

Land

Sea

Sustainable Development – Population Growth Overlays  Will Day, 2006

Sustainable Development – Wealth Distribution

Sustainable Development – Water Overlays  Will Day, 2006

Sustainable Development - Energy Overlays  Will Day, 2006

Sustainable Development – Mineral Resources “ Providing today’s developed country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.” R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. Graedel Yale University Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 23 rd Jan 2006

Sustainable Development - Resources

Sustainable Development – The Environment “ Air pollution causes 2 million premature deaths a year” World Health Organisation “ Air pollution causes nearly 170,000 deaths a year in China” World Bank

Sustainable Development – The Environment

Sustainable Development – Connections Overlays  Will Day, 2006

Corporate Responses to Sustainable Development Rejection and Non-responsiveness: “ Very few companies today are actively opposed to sustainability concepts; most are simply ignorant of the issues and non-responsive” (WWF, 2003). Compliance: The “vast majority” of companies – activities include reducing operating risks and impacts and protection of corporate reputation. Efficiency: Actions include introducing policies to reduce costs. Despite the benefits to be gained, this approach to critical issues is often “managed outside the core business activities, and so missing strategic opportunities for value creation” (Draper, 2006). Strategic Proactivity: At this stage, corporations seek competitive advantage by, among others, engagement with stakeholders in product development. Sustaining corporations: “ Vanguard” companies (WWF 2003) which are pioneering alternative interpretations of business values and success.

Rejection and Non-responsiveness:

“ Very few companies today are actively opposed to sustainability concepts; most are simply ignorant of the issues and non-responsive” (WWF, 2003).

Compliance:

The “vast majority” of companies – activities include reducing operating risks and impacts and protection of corporate reputation.

Efficiency:

Actions include introducing policies to reduce costs. Despite the benefits to be gained, this approach to critical issues is often “managed outside the core business activities, and so missing strategic opportunities for value creation” (Draper, 2006).

Strategic Proactivity:

At this stage, corporations seek competitive advantage by, among others, engagement with stakeholders in product development.

Sustaining corporations:

“ Vanguard” companies (WWF 2003) which are pioneering alternative interpretations of business values and success.

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations MAJOR ISSUES: Design of ground based facilities: energy resource use sustainable design and operation Design of vehicles: emissions (need holistic analysis) cradle to cradle “C2C” design Carbon neutral trip – offsets: estimated cost of offset: £25 for sub-orbital (cf. London to Singapore return) £1,500 for launch to ISS (Soyuz technology, 3 PAX)

MAJOR ISSUES:

Design of ground based facilities:

energy

resource use

sustainable design and operation

Design of vehicles:

emissions (need holistic analysis)

cradle to cradle “C2C” design

Carbon neutral trip – offsets:

estimated cost of offset:

£25 for sub-orbital (cf. London to Singapore return)

£1,500 for launch to ISS (Soyuz technology, 3 PAX)

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK: Market perception risk Regulatory risk Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)

FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:

Market perception risk

Regulatory risk

Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)

BE CONSISTENT: Failure to be consistent is a business risk Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE : environmental consciousness inspiration of the young the frontier culture sense of purpose optimism

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE :

environmental consciousness

inspiration of the young

the frontier culture

sense of purpose

optimism

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture This photo is credited with kick-starting the mass environmental movement

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture “ Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish and preserve it for future generations.” Sigmund Jaehn , 1 st German Cosmonaut

“ Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They’d start to see things differently.” Anousheh Ansari Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture "The way I want to inspire kids is to fly to space and let them know that they can too” Burt Rutan “ Space, the final frontier” Star Trek “ Where there is no vision the people perish” Solomon, Proverbs 29 v8

“ Perhaps the core message is that evolution and exploration are inseparable, that the curious intellect and the wondering spirit are the evolutionary process from inside. They are the hallmarks of humanity and the true propellants of spaceflight.” Wyn Wachorst “ Man must explore and this is exploration at its greatest” Dave Scott, Apollo 15 Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics Space tourism revenue forecasts: $100 billion/year by 2030 $1 trillion/year by 2060 Patrick Collins Space tourism facts: $1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006 A NEW INDUSTRY: ''What this country needs is a really good $500 billion technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm and the economy'‘ R Samuelson, Washington Post

Space tourism revenue forecasts:

$100 billion/year by 2030

$1 trillion/year by 2060

Patrick Collins

Space tourism facts:

$1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006

A NEW INDUSTRY:

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources “ 3554 Amun, a mile wide lump of iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and other metals that has an orbit closely resembling that of the Earth’s……….3554 Amun contains thirty times as much metal as has ever been mined by human beings in the history of Earth. It’s value, at current prices and if mined slowly to keep commodity prices level, is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars.” John S. Lewis

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources Solar Power Satellites Projected European power demand in 2020 is 535 GW Energy dependence set to grow from 50% to 70% by 2030

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources Lunar helium–3 as a fuel source for fusion power Potential value of $140 million/100 kg “ But one assumption that I know will be justified is that the Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of civilization and prosperity.” Mike Griffin, NASA Administrator

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival “ 20 ways the world could end” include: Pandemic Nuclear war Gamma ray burst Asteroid impact Mega tsunami Super volcanoes Catastrophic climate change

“ 20 ways the world could end” include:

Pandemic

Nuclear war

Gamma ray burst

Asteroid impact

Mega tsunami

Super volcanoes

Catastrophic climate change

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival “ The real space race is between spaceflight and extinction” J. Richard Gott

“ If we were up there among the planets, if there were self-sufficient human communities on many worlds, our species would be insulated from catastrophe,” Carl Sagan Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions Space Tourism is a growing industry Sustainable Development reflects real problems Sustainable Development is a business opportunity Space Tourism links directly to Sustainable Development through: operations culture economics resources survival

Space Tourism is a growing industry

Sustainable Development reflects real problems

Sustainable Development is a business opportunity

Space Tourism links directly to Sustainable Development through:

operations

culture

economics

resources

survival

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions Large parts of the Sustainable Development “industry” will oppose the idea of Space Tourism If the Space Tourism industry sees Sustainable Development as just as a “compliance issue”, then it will face considerable opposition Need to mitigate risks by: Designing sustainability into operations and systems Making the case that space is a vital part of sustainability A rare opportunity to design Sustainable Development into a new industry from the start

Large parts of the Sustainable Development “industry” will oppose the idea of Space Tourism

If the Space Tourism industry sees Sustainable Development as just as a “compliance issue”, then it will face considerable opposition

Need to mitigate risks by:

Designing sustainability into operations and systems

Making the case that space is a vital part of sustainability

A rare opportunity to design Sustainable Development into a new industry from the start

I have learned to use the word impossible with great caution Wernher von Braun A Final Thought Thank you for listening

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