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South Dakota Corn Growers 1 10 09

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Information about South Dakota Corn Growers 1 10 09
Finance
ltd

Published on January 16, 2009

Author: talcottsystems

Source: slideshare.net

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© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies South Dakota Corn Growers Association by John Roach January 10, 2009

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. There will not be enough money to raise crops this big next year

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World coarse grain ending stocks tight U.S. ending stocks are tight Exports off to slow start Ethanol demand slowing We still need a big corn crop every year Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009 Corn Situation and Price Outlook

World coarse grain ending stocks tight

U.S. ending stocks are tight

Exports off to slow start

Ethanol demand slowing

We still need a big corn crop every year

Price peak due in Mar – June in 2009

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World soybean ending stocks not as tight as corn or wheat, but demand is solid. US stocks very tight Look for shrinking 2009 crop in S. America Prices trying to trend higher Bean Situation and Price Outlook

World soybean ending stocks not as tight as corn or wheat, but demand is solid.

US stocks very tight

Look for shrinking 2009 crop in S. America

Prices trying to trend higher

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year March through June is usually best Rule # 1

Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year

March through June is usually best

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Sell only when markets are giving a Roach Ag Sell Signal Rule # 2

Sell only when markets are giving a Roach Ag Sell Signal

December 2007 Corn © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal

December 2007 Corn

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level Rule # 3

Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Make sure you take into consideration what your cash-flow needs will be from harvest through February Rule # 4

Make sure you take into consideration what your cash-flow needs will be from harvest through February

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Make sure you have enough owned storage to hold the undelivered percentage of a record crop Rule # 5

Make sure you have enough owned storage to hold the undelivered percentage of a record crop

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal Rule # 6

Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Buy new crop puts on the bushels you do not want to sell on a contract. Decide if puts are insurance or investment Rule # 7

Buy new crop puts on the bushels you do not want to sell on a contract. Decide if puts are insurance or investment

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. If you see reasons for getting bullish, add additional increments by splitting the bushels again, but don’t quit selling peaks Rule # 8

If you see reasons for getting bullish, add additional increments by splitting the bushels again, but don’t quit selling peaks

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.

© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com

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