SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

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Information about SMC Global Commodity Daily Report

Published on March 7, 2014

Author: moneywisebewise



This report covers daily price ranges and related news of various metal, energy & agri commodities (domestic & international) along with key economic releases. Daily trend sheet is also given, in which the price direction of the medium term trend is given with respective stop loss levels.

SMC Global - Daily Report (Commodities) 7th March, 2014 CONTRACT EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND CHANGED RATE TREND CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS NCDEX (AGRI) Soy Bean (Mar) 20-Mar-14 4212.00 Up 25.01.14 3815.00 4050.00 Soy Bean (Apr) 18-Apr-14 4217.50 Up 23.01.14 3758.50 4040.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Mar) 20-Mar-14 738.55 Up 10.02.14 687.00 715.00 Ref. Soy Oil (Apr) 18-Apr-14 739.65 Up 10.02.14 681.95 715.00 RM seeds (Apr) 18-Apr-14 3564.00 Up 01.03.14 3604.00 3480.00 RM seeds (May) 20-May-14 3606.00 Up 01.03.14 3635.00 3520.00 Turmeric (Apr) 18-Apr-14 7100.00 Down 24.02.14 6882.00 7250.00 Turmeric (May) 20-May-14 7136.00 Down 24.02.14 6916.00 7300.00 Jeera (Mar) 20-Mar-14 11280.00 Down 02.12.13 12770.00 11900.00 Jeera (Apr) 18-Apr-14 11285.00 Down 02.12.13 12922.50 11900.00 Chana (Apr) 18-Apr-14 3250.00 Up 05.03.14 3220.00 3100.00 Chana (May) 20-May-14 3280.00 Up 05.03.14 3256.00 3120.00 Cocud (Mar) 20-Mar-14 1543.00 Down 31.01.14 1560.00 1580.00 Cocud (Apr) 18-Apr-14 1577.00 Down 31.01.14 1529.00 1610.00 MCX (Agri) Cardamom (Mar) 15-Mar-14 737.90 Down 03.03.14 777.90 780.00 Cardamom (Apr) 15-Apr-14 815.50 Down 03.03.14 811.30 840.00 Mentha Oil (Mar) 31-Mar-14 822.00 Up 04.03.14 823.70 790.00 Mentha Oil (Apr) 30-Apr-14 831.40 Up 04.03.14 833.60 800.00

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE TREND** DATE TREND RATE TREND CHANGED CHANGED CLOSING STOP LOSS COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 06.03.2014) Silver (Mar) ($) 27-Mar-14 21.54 Up 18.02.14 21.90 20.40 Gold (Apr) ($) 28-Apr-14 1351.80 Up 24.01.14 1264.30 1310.00 Crude Oil (Apr) ($) 20-Mar-14 101.56 Up 22.01.14 96.73 99.00 Natural Gas (Apr) ($) 27-Mar-14 4.66 Up 22.01.14 4.27 4.50 MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 06.03.2014) Silver (May) 5-May-14 47194.00 Up 14.02.14 46613.00 45500.00 Gold (Apr) 5-Apr-14 30209.00 Up 24.01.14 29519.00 29600.00 Crude Oil (Mar) 19-Mar-14 6118.00 Sideways 05.03.14 6274.00 - Natural Gas (Mar) 26-Mar-14 282.60 Down 24.02.14 295.80 300.00 MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 06.03.2014) Copper (Apr) 30-Apr-14 436.60 Down 05.02.14 441.40 448.00 Aluminum (Mar) 31-Mar-14 107.70 Sideways 04.03.14 108.05 - Zinc (Mar) 31-Mar-14 128.80 Up 18.02.14 129.20 125.00 Lead (Mar) 31-Mar-14 129.95 Down 09.01.14 129.80 134.00 Nickel (Mar) 31-Mar-14 947.00 Up 14.01.14 882.00 910.00 LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 06.03.2014) Copper 3 Months 7050.00 Sideways 18.02.14 7195.00 - Aluminum 3 Months 1796.00 Sideways 20.02.14 1772.00 - Zinc 3 Months 2110.00 Up 19.12.13 1989.50 1940.00 Lead 3 Months 2145.00 Down 05.02.14 2097.00 2150.00 Nickel 3 Months 15470.00 Up 18.02.14 14460.00 14850.00 **One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.

Market Update (Agro) Spices: Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to consolidate in the range of 7080-7200 levels. At the spot markets, turmeric prices increased on Thursday following higher demand and arrivals of the new crop. The upcountry exporters are expecting more orders from North India before the weekend. The arrivals and sales in Nizamabad and Sangli have decreased and many traders of North India are placing orders for Erode turmeric, which is stated to be the best in quality. The price of the turmeric was slightly increased. The hybrid finger turmeric gets good demand due to arrival of fine variety. The price increased by Rs.400 to Rs.7,634, the root variety was up Rs.50. The downside in jeera futures (Mar) is likely to get extended breaching 11200 levels on the back of increasing supply of the new crop. At Unjha mandi in Gujarat, arrival was reported at 26,000-27,000 bags and price was down by Rs.10-12 to Rs.2,200-2,375 for a maund of 20 kg for the best quality. The average quality jeera was traded at Rs.1,850-2,100. In Rajkot, jeera was traded at Rs.1,750-2,100. Oilseeds: Mustard futures (Apr) is expected to take support above 3510 levels. The bullish trend in mustard oil continued on strong global cues and reports of damage to the mustard crop due to rains and snowfall recently. In Indore mandis, mustard oil on Thursday was quoted at Rs.670 for 10 kg (up Rs.14 from last week). Plant deliveries of new mustard seeds for Jaipur line were quoted at Rs.3,535-40 (Rs.3,48590 last week). Soybean futures (Apr) is likely to trade in the range of 4150-4250 levels. Oilmeals export dropped 53 per cent in February on shortage due to lower crushing of oilseeds, particularly soyabean, by mills. Exports slipped to 3,07,260 tonnes against 6,59,101 tonnes in the same period a year ago. Soyameal exports halved to 1,83,550 against 3,64,443 tonnes logged. It was 5,81,606 tonnes in February last year. U.S Soybeans rose more than 1 percent on continued export demand for tightening U.S. supplies and ahead of a monthly U.S. government crop report due Monday. The USDA on Thursday pegged export sales of old-crop soybeans in the latest week at 772,700 tonnes. CPO futures (Apr) are likely to trade higher taking support above 600 levels. Malaysian palm oil futures rallied to end at a 17-month high on Thursday, following a recovery in China and US soy markets, while unfavourable crop weather in South-East Asia continued to underpin prices. Other Commodities: The upside bias in sugar futures (Mar) is likely to continue to test 2860 levels. Sugar production in the current season is likely to drop 5% due to rainfall in recent months and a delay in crushing by the UP millers due to tiff over cane prices. Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), has revised the sugar production estimate to 23.8 million tonne from 25 million tonne for the October 2013-September 2014 season. Spot sugar prices shot up by Rs.20-30 a quintal at the mill level on Thursday on higher demand by stockists for forward delivery. On the Vashi wholesale spot market, prices increased by Rs.15-20. Chana futures (Apr) would possibly rise towards 3280 levels due to possibility of some crop damage in northern India coupled with fresh procurement by government agencies in major producing states. The heavy rainfall in some chana producing states of northern India such as Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh will probably impact the productivity of the chana crop. The sources added that rainfall during the harvesting stage could also delay the harvesting by 15-20 days. Maize futures (Mar) is expected to trade upside taking support above 1230 levels. At the spot markets, local Maize prices recovered today on some demand by feed millers. Market Update (Metals & Energy) Bullions: Bullions counter may trade sideways with upside bias tracking firm international cues as investors will eye the US nonfarm payroll data today. Gold can move in range of 30000-30500 while silver can hover in range of 46500-48000 in MCX. Gold traded near the highest level in more than four months and headed for a fifth weekly advance before U.S. payrolls data while tension persisted in Ukraine. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, were unchanged yesterday for a seventh day, the longest stretch assets have held steady in 13 months. Base Metals: Base metals may trade sideways as US job data will give further direction to the prices. Copper may trade in range of 432-440 while Lead may move in range of 128-131. Aluminum may move in range of 107-108.50. Nickel may move in range of 940-955 in MCX. Nickel reached a nine-month high amid concern that the U.S. will impose trade sanctions on Russia, exacerbating supply constraints amid an ore-export ban in Indonesia, the top producer of the metal from mines. Republicans in the U.S. Congress are urging swift sanctions against Russia, the second-biggest nickel producer, for its incursion into Ukraine. Energy: Crude oil futures may continue to witness bounce back at lower levels as it can test 6250 in MCX. West Texas Intermediate crude rebounded after the biggest drop in two months as fewer Americans than projected filed applications for unemployment benefits last week. Brent increased as President Barack Obama said the U.S. and its allies will keep raising pressure on Russia to back down in Ukraine. Applications for unemployment benefits decreased 26,000 last week to 323,000, fewer than any economist forecast in a Bloomberg survey. The four-week average, a less-volatile measure than the weekly figure, was 336,500 from 338,500 in the prior period. Natural gas can see some short covering at lower levels as it can move in range of 278-286 in MCX.

TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES IST 16:30 19:00 Economic releases EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) USD Change in Private Payrolls 19:00 USD Unemployment Rate 19:00 USD Trade Balance 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 19:00 USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Importance Expected Previous Impact on Commodity Adverse/Favourable /Neutral Low 3.90% 2.60% Metal and energy Favourable Medium 155K 142K High 6.60% 6.60% Medium -$39.0B -$38.7B Medium 0.20% 0.20% Medium 2.00% 1.90% Medium 34.4 34.4 High 150K 113K Medium 5K 21K Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Metal and energy Favourable Neutral Neutral Neutral Favourable Neutral Favourable Adverse Commodity Fundamental Team: Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625 Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 683 Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674 Shivanand Upadhyay Research Associate Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646 For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651 You can also read this report on our website “” SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus. DISCLAMIER This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and doesn’t construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. It is only for private circulation and use .The report is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. No action is solicited on the basis of the contents of the report. The report should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person(s)in any form without prior written permission of the SMC. The contents of this material are general and are neither comprehensive nor inclusive. Neither SMC nor any of its affiliates, associates, representatives, directors or employees shall be responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person due to any action taken on the basis of this report. It does not constitute personal recommendations or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations or needs of an individual client or a corporate/s or any entity/s. All investments involve risk and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The value of, and income from investments may vary because of the changes in the macro and micro factors given at a certain period of time. The person should use his/her own judgment while taking investment decisions. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance if this material;(a) from time to time, may have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities thereof, mentioned here in or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the commodities discussed herein (c) may have any other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Delhi High court.

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