Published on March 12, 2014
Should Scotland have its own Immigration Policy? Prof. Allan Findlay1, Dr David McCollum1, Professor David Bell2 and Dr Jakub Bijak3 ESRC Centre for Population Change University of St Andrews1, University of Stirling2 University of Southampton3 27th February 2014
Structure of Presentation • Context – what we know about Scotland and migration • Context – what we do not know – forecasts of migration • Demographic drivers of migration policy • Employer perspectives on migration – the policy implications • Economic perspectives and public opinion – policy implications • Conclusions – migration policy options for Scotland 2
Net Migration to Scotland Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 1951-1952 1954-1955 1957-1958 1960-1961 1963-1964 1966-1967 1969-1970 1972-1973 1975-1976 1978-1979 1981-1982 1984-1985 1987-1988 1990-1991 1993-1994 1996-1997 1999-2000 2002-2003 2005-2006 2008-2009 2011-2012 Year to 30 June Persons('000s)
4 Percentage of usual residents in EU27 countries that are foreign born, 2011 • The proportion of foreign-born nationals in England is among the highest in the European Union • Scotland’s foreign born population remains among the lowest. Source: Authors own analysis of Eurostat, ONS and NRS data
What we know from the 2011 census Ageing Scotland : Youthful Migrants 5 Scotland’s age structure, 2001-11 Migrants – 25-29 cohort: 15%Scottish – 25-29: 6.5% Proportion of non-UK born population who arrived aged 0-4 years Scotland and England by region, 2011 Proportion of non-UK born population who arrived aged 25-29 years Scotland and England by region, 2011
Net migration to Scotland by age group 6 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 0-15 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+ NumberofMigrants(Net) rUK Overseas Net Migration Flows by Age Group: Scotland 2001-02 to 2010-11
What we know from the 2011 census; Scotland’s Global Reach
Is immigration to Scotland distinctive? Origin of migrants Scotland England Place of Birth Percentage of non-UK born population Place of Birth Percentage of non- UK born population 1 Poland 15.0% 1 India 9.3% 2 India 6.4% 2 Poland 7.7% 3 Republic of Ireland 6.2% 3 Pakistan 6.5% 4 Germany 6.0% 4 Republic of Ireland 5.4% 5 Pakistan 5.4% 5 Germany 3.6% 6 United States of America 4.3% 6 Bangladesh 2.8% 7 China 4.2% 7 Nigeria 2.6% 8 South Africa 2.9% 8 South Africa 2.5% 9 Nigeria 2.6% 9 United States of America 2.4% 10 Canada 2.6% 10 Jamaica 2.2% 8 Top ten non-UK countries of birth in England and Scotland 2011 Source: Authors own analysis of 2011 Census (ONS and NRS)
What we do not know: Future Migration to/from Scotland • Migration forecasting is always a very uncertain process • State of the art (NRS projections, 2012-based): – Overall net migration: internal and international – Three variants, with net migration converging to +7,000 (Low), +15,500 (Base) and +24,000 (High) by mid-2018 • What our study adds: – Looking at different directions of migration flows – Probabilistic analysis and quantification of uncertainty – Formal combination of data series and expert opinion – Expert justifications for specific groups of migrants
CPC Internal and International Migration Forecasts 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
What we do not know: Best estimates of migration futures • Future migration flows to and from Scotland are highly uncertain • There is greatest uncertainty about international immigration to Scotland • Emigration from Scotland will likely increase in the near future, irrespective of the referendum outcome • Migration between Scotland and the rest of the UK will remain at similar levels to the present, again largely regardless of the constitutional arrangement
Demographic drivers of migration policy • Current UK policy has no demographic driver – only a net migration cap • Current Scottish Government has a demographic target = ‘to match average EU15 population growth..2007-17’- (next slide shows it was on track to meet the target in four of the last six years - thanks to net migration gains) ‘It is important that we continue to attract more people of working age to Scotland’ (Scottish Government webpage: ‘Scotland Performs’) ‘With full control over immigration policy the Scottish Government would be able to set a controlled immigration policy framework that supports the needs of Scottish businesses, universities and ensure long-term economic success and prosperity for http://www.scotland.gov.uk/About/Performance/scotPerforms/purpose/population Scotland’ 13
Immigration as a demographic driver linked to Scotland’s population target 14 Annual rates of population change: Scotland and EU15 average 1996-2012 Source: Eurostat and NRS data, cited in Packwood et al, 2014 -0.4% -0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% Annualpopulationgrowthrate EU 15 average annual population growth rate - Scottish annual population growth rate -
Disaggregation of migration matters 15 Scottish domiciled students (forecast) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 NumberofstudentsThousands Africa Asia North America Asia Trends in key international student flows North America Africa 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 Thousands Current Projected Source: Authors’ analysis: 2002/03 – 2012/13 HESA data; Tindal, Findlay and Wright, forthcoming
Percentage of students from outside the UK, by region of origin and place of study, 2011-12 Source: Authors calculations, using HESA data 2011/12
Could Migration Policy be established for UK regions? 5% 7% 8% 8% 9% 10% 11% 11% 12% 14% 37% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Proportionofnon-UKborn Proportion of population born outside UK 2011 Source: NRS ONS data, cited in Packwood et al, 2013
Wages and Proportion of Foreign Born Residents (2012) Scotland London and South-East 0 5 10 15 20 25 £440 £460 £480 £500 £520 £540 £560 £580 ProportionForeignBorn Gross Weekly Wage (£) Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2012, Annual Population Survey 2012
Employers views: immigration and constitutional change • Employer views – Views on immigration policy (in context of constitutional change debate) – Justifications for views on immigration policy – Preferences regarding future immigration policy in Scotland – Role in shaping immigration policy • Policy implications 19
Importance of migration related issues, by sector (via 2013 online survey, 700+ responses) 20
Employer views: narratives Signifiers of ‘value’ Narrative Demographic compensation for ageing of domestic population ‘We need more people in Scotland, not less… our population is getting older and that’s not a recipe for success… so we definitely need more migrants in Scotland’ Wayne. Inter-company organisation Spurs economic growth and net fiscal benefit ‘High end immigration is what is required to drive the economy recovery…and these people are paying huge quantities of tax, so it makes no sense whatsoever to limit it’. Paula, finance company Fills skills and labour gaps ‘Dentists are in very short supply in Scotland… and Romania has got exactly the same dentistry qualification, so academically they are absolutely a hundred per cent qualified for the role’. Daniel, recruitment firm Positive work ethic of migrants They don’t rely on benefits… it’s not in their culture’. Thomas, hospitality recruitment firm 21
Employer preferences • Support for freedom of movement within EU ‘The most important thing is the EU because the free movement of people and goods is vital for us… so it is important that Scotland, and the rest of the UK, remains in Europe’ James, representative, logistics & transport • UK immigration policy: (increasingly) restrictive and South-East centric ‘We definitely need migrants, the rest of the UK, actually sorry the South East of England in particular probably doesn’t need them and they have got some real problems with immigration… but Scotland’s problems in that area are not the same at all and we shouldn’t allow UK immigration to be dictated by London I’m afraid’. Wayne, inter-company organisation • Pragmatic policy measures, but also positive political rhetoric ‘Alex Salmond has positively welcomed them [migrants] and said that they’ll be welcomed to Scotland… there’s the racism aspect down in England where they’re saying they’re all thieves, gypsies and beggars, so people are coming up to Scotland because they know that there’s less racism here’ Thomas, recruitment, hospitality 22
Immigration policy: employer influence • Referendum: chance to press for a more favourable immigration policy ‘Our position of constitutional flux gives us scope to revise things that maybe looked a bit settled and to see if there are ways in which a policy environment can be formed to ur further advantage, for instance in relation to the Scottish immigration regime’. Toby, representative, education • Extent and efficacy of lobbying ‘Given that the Yes campaign makes a big deal out of the oil industry, they really need to talk to the oil industry... they’re engaging with organisations like the Wood Group because of Sir Ian Wood, but they are not engaging with the vast majority of other businesses that are actually supporting the sector and who produce more money for the UK than these guys do’. Olivia, oil and gas 23
Employer research: policy implications • Employer views – Sufficient grounds for a ‘different’ migration policy for Scotland – Current immigration policies oriented towards needs of South-East – Constitutional change debate: prospect of a more favourable immigration regime in Scotland 24 NO - Scotland remains in the UK YES - Scotland leaves the UK Opportunities Sub-national immigration policies: distinct measures within broader UK framework Political powers to enact its own immigration policies Relative public support/tolerance Challenges Practical & political barriers to sub-national immigration policies Bound to ‘one size fits all’ UK immigration policy Need a similar immigration policy to rest of UK to remain in the CTA No influence over EU migration Public hostility
The Political Economy of Migration • Employer views important, but migration policy influenced by voter preferences • Public perceptions generally negative: – labour market concerns, – welfare concerns, – racial or cultural concerns • welfare concerns play a the more important role in determination of attitudes to further immigration than labour market concerns, • strong evidence that racial or cultural prejudice is an important component to attitudes towards immigration; however, this is restricted to immigration from countries with ethnically different populations Source: Dustmann and Preston (2007) 25
Hourly Wages of Immigrants 2012 26 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Poland Pakistan Other Scotland Republic of Ireland Northern Ireland England Wales India HourlyWageIndexRelativetoWageof Natives=100 Country of Birth England Scotland Country of Residence
Preferences for changes in immigration 27
Immigration good or bad? 28
Further evidence: COMPAS public opinion research October 2013; 4,200+ responses 29 • Scotland: more welcoming/less hostile towards migration – Scotland: 58% desire reductions in immigration – England & Wales: 75% desire reductions in immigration • Support for Scotland controlling its own immigration policy – 60% Scottish Government, 31% UK government • Yes voters less opposed to immigration than No voters – 58% of No voters desire a reduction in immigration – 28% of Yes voters desire a reduction in immigration
Voting intentions and attitudes to migration 30 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Too low About right Too high Don't know Yes No Don't know Voting Intention Do you think the level of migration into Scotland in the last decade has been:
Views on immigration post-independence 31 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Yes No Don't know Voting Intention
Views on immigration by age group 32 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Too low About right Too high Don't know Percent 16-25 25-49 50-64 65+
UK Points Based System The points-based system consists of five tiers. These are: • Tier 1 - for highly skilled workers, such as scientists and entrepreneurs • Tier 2 - for skilled workers with a job offer, such as teachers and nurses • Tier 4 - for students • Tier 5 - for temporary workers, such as musicians coming to play in a concert, and participants in the youth mobility scheme. • Tier 3 is currently suspended. 33
UK Points Based System 34 Source: Border Agency
Quebec Points Based System 35
Feasibility of sub-national immigration policy • Political consent from both sub-national and national governments – Acceptable to public(s) – Effectiveness in meeting objective(s) – Stable within devolved settlement 36
White Paper Proposals on Immigration • “We plan to continue in the current Common Travel Area with the rest of the UK and Ireland.” • “For non-EU nationals, independence will enable us to develop and operate a controlled, transparent and efficient immigration system. This Government will take forward a points-based approach targeted at particular Scottish requirements.” • “We plan to lower the current financial maintenance thresholds and minimum salary levels for entry, to better align them with Scottish average wages and cost of living.” • “This Government plans to reintroduce the post-study work visa.” • “We propose that a Scottish Asylum Agency should oversee asylum applications.” 37
Constraints on immigration policy with independence (e.g. Ireland) • Current UK-Ireland arrangements • Non-EEA nationals need a visa • Immigrants who take Irish citizenship would be eligible to travel to UK • Irish naturalisation process. Applicants must: • Be of good character • Have had a period of 1 year continuous reckonable residence in the State immediately before the date of application and, during the 8 years preceding that, have had a total reckonable residence in the State amounting 4 years. • Intend in good faith to reside in the State after naturalisation 38
Conclusions • Demographic arguments may favour a positive policy approach in Scotland towards migration • Employers recognise some economic benefits from immigration • Economic arguments need to be balanced against public opinion on immigration • A distinctive migration policy has been mapped out in the White Paper, but a devolved settlement could also shape immigration to fit Scotland’s needs • Arguably, while an independent policy might have slightly stronger policy levers, a devolved migration policy might face fewer constraints in terms of implementation 39
Thank you for listening! 40
The following screen is for back up 41
Model and Method Variant Scenario Migration Scotland to the rest of the UK Independence Gradual 2011-21 Gradual 2014-21 Gradual 2016-21 Step change in 2016 Status quo Status quo The rest of the UK to Scotland Overseas to Scotland Scotland to overseas Equal weights … … … … … Prediction of the referendum outcome • Forecasting approach: Bayesian time series model, with additional expert information
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