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Published on September 23, 2008

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Modifying the Weather and Climate through Land Cover & Land Use Management (A Study Carried out by using Regional Climate Model version3 (RegCM3) of ICTP, Italy) : Modifying the Weather and Climate through Land Cover & Land Use Management (A Study Carried out by using Regional Climate Model version3 (RegCM3) of ICTP, Italy) Pakistan Meteorological Department Research & Development Division H-8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan by Ata Hussain 9th WMO Scientific Conference on Weather Modification, Antalya, Turkey, 22-25 October, 2007 Slide 2: PAKISTAN INDIA ARABIAN SEA BAY OF BENGAL INDIAN OCEAN ISLAMABAD AFGHANISTAN IRAN The Great Indian Desert The Great Hamalya The Registan Desert The Thal Desert The Kharan Desert SRI LANKA BENGLADESH NEPAL Slide 3: PAKISTAN The Thar The Thal The Kharan The Cholistan The Great Indian Desert The Registan INDIA AFGHANISTAN Geographically, it is situated in South Asia between longitudes 61º & 76º E and latitudes 24º & 37º N. The country possesses quite complicated physiographical features that include the northern high mountain ranges (the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindukush), the western bordering highlands and the Indus plains. The geographical area of the country is 79.60 million hectares (mha) of which more than 80 % is Arid or Semi Arid including the following four deserts (having sand dunes): The Thal, The Cholistan, The Thar and The Kharan INTDODUCTION Slide 4: PAKISTAN The Thar Slide 5: It has been estimated that Pakistan’ crops use about 79 billion cubic meters of water each year, about 80% of this come from irrigation (46% from canal system & 34 % from pumped ground water) and the balance 20% comes from the rainfall. INDIA PUNJAB BALOCHISTAN N.W.F.P SINDH AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN IRAN The Indus River alone provides 65% of total river flows. The total length of main canals is about 60,000 km, while the field water courses are about 1,630,000 km. Indus River Indus River Slide 6: The annual area weighted rainfall of Pakistan is just 137.5 mm. It has much significance due to the fact that annual variations in rainfall (along with other factors) can have serious impact on water resources of Pakistan. INTRODUCTION The surface air temperatures can be as low as -27 degree Celsius over the mountains during winter and exceed 50 degree Celsius in the plain areas on extremely hot days during summer. Slide 7: About 50% of the annual rainfall is received during the Monsoon Season (July-September) in Pakistan. Slide 8: About 25% of the annual rainfall is received during the Winter Season (December-March) in Pakistan. Slide 9: PAKISTAN INDIA IRAN AFGHANISTAN Slide 10: PAKISTAN INDIA IRAN AFGHANISTAN Slide 11: OBJECTIVES This presentation is a part of the study aimed at the following: To determine as to over which area the land cover / land use changes are more influential on the weather / climate of Pakistan. To what extent weather / climate of Pakistan could be modified if some desert area (s) of Pakistan are transformed into vegetated land by introducing crops and mixed farming. What might be the impact on the weather / climate of Pakistan if the deserts are grown at their margins due to some reason. METHODOLOGY : METHODOLOGY Selected domain (10-40 N & 60-95 E) with 60 km Resolution Grell Scheme Convective Closure Scheme: Arakawa & Schubert GTOPO30 Terrain, GLCC Landuse, OISST sea surface temperature and ECMWF reanalysis ERA40 datasets were used as Terrain and ICBC input data. Period Monsoon Season (July-September)-2000 Six Simulations were conducted with the following land use / land cover: 1. With original land use / land cover. 2. The Thal, alone is vegetated. 3. The Cholistan, alone is vegetated. 4. The Thar, alone is vegetated. 5. All three deserts are vegetated. 6. With increased Aridity (by growing the three deserts) Slide 13: Table.1 : Types of Land Cover / Vegetation Classes used in RegCM3 Weather / Climatic Parameters Studied : Weather / Climatic Parameters Studied 1. Total Precipitation 2. Air Temperature 3. Ground Temperature 4. Maximum Temperature 5. Minimum Temperature 6. Relative Humidity 7. Surface Pressure Difference in Total Precipitation (if the Thal alone is Vegetated) : Difference in Total Precipitation (if the Thal alone is Vegetated) Slide 20: Difference in Total Precipitation (if the Cholistan alone is Vegetated) Slide 21: Difference in Total Precipitation (if the Thar alone is Vegetated) Difference in Total Precipitation (if all three deserts are Vegetated) : Difference in Total Precipitation (if all three deserts are Vegetated) Slide 23: Difference in Total Precipitation ( if Aridity is Increased) Slide 24: When the Thal alone is Vegetated Difference in Air Temperature Difference in Ground Temperature Difference in Max Temperature Difference in Min Temperature Slide 25: When the Cholistan alone is Vegetated) Difference in Air Temperature Difference in Ground Temperature Difference in Max Temperature Difference in Min Temperature Slide 26: When the Thar alone is Vegetated) Difference in Air Temperature Difference in Ground Temperature Difference in Max Temperature Difference in Min Temperature When all three deserts are Vegetated : When all three deserts are Vegetated Difference in Ground Temperature Difference in Max Temperature Difference in Min Temperature Difference in Air Temperature Slide 28: When Aridity is Increased (by growing all three deserts) Difference in Air Temperature Difference in Ground Temperature Difference in Max Temperature Difference in Min Temperature Slide 29: Difference in Relative Humidity (%) When the Thal alone is Vegetated Difference in Surface Pressure (hpa) Slide 30: When the Cholistan alone is Vegetated Difference in Relative Humidity (%) Difference in Surface Pressure (hpa) Slide 31: When the Thar alone is Vegetated Difference in Relative Humidity (%) Difference in Surface Pressure (hpa) Slide 32: When all three deserts are Vegetated Difference in Relative Humidity (%) Difference in Surface Pressure (hpa) Slide 33: When Aridity is Increased (by growing all three deserts) Difference in Relative Humidity (%) Difference in Surface Pressure (hpa) Slide 34: FINDINGS The study re-confirm that the land cover / land use changes do have impact on the weather/climatic parameters of a region. The changes not only affect the local weather and climate conditions but also have impact on the weather and climate of other neighbouring areas. In general, the transformation of the desert (s) areas of Pakistan in to vegetated land have positive impact on the weather/climatic parameters of the modified land as well as adjoining area, while the enhanced aridity have negative impact. The land use / land cover changes over the Thal desert have more influence over the Monsoon weather and climate of Pakistan as compared to the changes over the other two deserts. CONCLUSION : CONCLUSION What changes we do on the earth surface, they do impact the atmosphere by means of natural land-atmospheric interaction. So by improving the irrigation system of Pakistan, plant cover promotion and through proper land cover management and land use reforms, the climate of the country can be made more pleasant and tolerable to live. In addition, this can also improve the socio economic condition of the country. Slide 36: Thank You

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