Published on March 11, 2014
Planning for an ageing population Dr. Roger O’Sullivan, CARDI 30 January 2014
Introduction 1. Introduction to CARDI 2. Demographic change 3. Ageing in place 4. An ageing population: what does it mean? 5. Transport 6. Policy innovations
The work of CARDI • All-Ireland perspective • Cross-discipline focus (health, finance, social exclusion) • Promote research to inform policy and practice • Aim to bring forward evidence so policy, practice and resource allocation decisions are made on best information 3
Chances of living to 100 • Born 1852: 1 in 3800 • Born 1896: 1 in 310 • Born 2013: 1 in 3
Life expectancy at age 65 - NI
Success of public health • In 2012 there were 273,000 (15%) people aged 65+ in NI (NISRA) – By 2041 the number of people aged 65+ in NI will reach almost half a million (496,000) , almost one quarter of the total population (24.5%) (NISRA)
Demographic change 7 Source: NISRA
… and projected to 2056 8 Source: NISRA
Population pyramid 2014 20441984
Ageing in place
Ageing in place
Ageing in place
Ageing in place
An ageing population – what does it mean? Pensions Health Long-term care Housing Home care Crime Physical activity Intergenerat ional solidarity Social exclusion E- government Pensions Dementia Disability Volunteerin g Transport
An ageing population – what does it mean? • Wealth – 23% of pensioner couples and 39% of single pensioners in NI have no income on top of state benefits (Department for Social Development, 2010).
An ageing population – what does it mean? • Wealth
An ageing population – what does it mean? • Well-being – People in NI aged 50+ are twice as likely to report being disabled compared to ROI (Savva et al 2011). – 18% of people aged over 50 in NI suffer from two or more chronic conditions compared to 11% in ROI eg diabetes, arthritis, asthma, heart disease (Savva et al 2011). – 70% of people in NI aged 75+ report a longstanding illness (Health Survey NI 2010 – 2011). – As people age they are less likely to travel – but this trend is very marked for people with disabilities in rural areas' ( NDA, 2014)
And transport . . . • Have governments, public agencies, local authorities, community transport providers, etc. thought about demographic change?
“On the whole, older people who drive will prefer to continue doing so for as long as possible. They will also expect to have access to alternative transport modes that meet their individual needs, especially as they approach 80 years of age. Future transport systems and services will play an essential role in supporting independent, healthy ageing.” (Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development)
TILDA on transport • Majority stated that they drive themselves (76%), followed by 14% who are primarily driven by a family member. Public bus is the third most reported method of transport (5%) • Negative perception of public transport increased as an individual’s geographic location became more rural: over 70% of the rural population reporting the local public transport system as poor compared to fewer than 20% in Dublin.
Older drivers • Solution to transport for an ageing population? • Jurisdiction dependent on car transport has particular challenges • Older drivers have low rates of police-reported crash involvements per capita, but per mile travelled, crash rates start increasing for drivers 70 and older and increase markedly after age 80 • ILC UK: – The virtues of a life closer to home with less travel should be promoted amongst older people – Alternative modes of transport and the walking and cycling infrastructure have to be fit for purpose
Older drivers • Google driverless car – 500,000km crash-free • ROI government preparing consultation and law changes • Future of transport for older people?
Rural social exclusion • Walsh et al. (2012) indicators of social exclusion in rural Ireland: • security, safety and crime • income and financial resources • social connections and social resources • Services • transport and mobility
Rural social exclusion
Northern Ireland: Age-friendly region • Northern Ireland is set to become an age- friendly region but: – Are transport staff trained to assist older people? – Are vehicles accessible? – Is information on transport readily available to older people – Is policy behind the demographic, i.e. is there is a time-lag between planning and the pace of population ageing?
New CARDI publication • Literature review • Policy review • Interviews • International case studies
New CARDI publication – key findings – Policy and service provision needs to prepare for an ageing population – Public and community transport should recognise the increasingly diverse needs of an ageing population in terms of transport – Integration of public and community transport services can help to develop efficient and cost- effective rural transport
New CARDI publication – policy recommendations • In the long-term: – using innovative solutions – learning from international experience – working to integrate rural transport • can lead to the development of a sustainable and efficient rural transport network that will meet the needs of all passenger groups
Learning from international innovation – Transport for NSW • Transport for NSW is an integrated transport authority in New South Wales, Australia • All decision making for planning and policy is centralised • Organisation has control over all forms of transport • Formed specifically to challenge the “silo mentality” (where government departments and agencies were not co- operating fully) • Community Transport programme targets people whose access to mainstream transport services is limited by physical, social or geographical factors – Centrally co-ordinated by Transport for NSW but local providers operate the services
Learning from international innovation – ITN America • Not for profit that provides door-to-door transport for thousands of older people across the US • System is built around credits: – Older people can earn and store up in order to provide for their own future transport needs. – Earned by volunteering, trading in cars, gift certificates • Older people can earn the transport that they require when they are no longer driving through volunteering. It provides a door to door service that runs 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. • Additional funding comes from corporate sponsorship, and assistance is available for older people with low incomes.
Innovation in policy – lessons for transport • Policy decisions need to address the causes of problems in society, as opposed to addressing symptoms of a wider problem • Also important that they are sustainable over the longer term, both socially and financially
Conclusions • To be ready for an ageing population, we need to think about how transport can adapt to a demographic that is very different from today • Decreasing budgets mean better use of current resources – not easy! • Innovation in policy and learning from international practice are vital – But: changes must be sustainable in long-term
Thank you • Executive summary available today • Full research report available on www.cardi.ie
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