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Published on May 7, 2008

Author: Renato


Saving Doha: the Challenge for the WTO Ministerial 挽救多哈回合:WTO部长会议的挑战:  2008-5-7 1 Saving Doha: the Challenge for the WTO Ministerial 挽救多哈回合:WTO部长会议的挑战 Guangdong WTO Centre Conference on participation in Trade Policy Guangzhou, 2 December 2005 Prof Jim Rollo University of Sussex and Federal Trust the story so far: from Doha to Cancun 从多哈到坎昆的历程:  2008-5-7 2 the story so far: from Doha to Cancun 从多哈到坎昆的历程 Doha Development Agenda (DDA) launched in November 2001 to give developing countries a stake in the world trade system and to cover 2001年11月发起的多哈发展议程提升发展中国家在全球贸易体系中的位置,包括: Liberalisation of agricultural markets and policy including abolition of export subsidies reductions in the amount of trade distorting subsidies and reduced tariffs 农产品自由化政策,包括废除出口补贴,减少扭曲贸易的补贴,降低关税 Market access negotiations on non Agricultural goods (NAMA) and services 非农产品和服务业市场准入 Implementation of Uruguay Round in developing countries including capacity building, TRIPs and medicines 帮助发展中国家实施乌拉圭回合协议,包括能力建设、与贸易有关的知识产权,药品等 Rules negotiation on ‘Singapore issues’ 新加坡议题的谈判 Special and differential treatment (SDT) for developing countries in particular the LDCs 发展中国家的特殊差别待遇 the story so far: from Doha to Cancun 从多哈到坎昆的历程:  2008-5-7 3 the story so far: from Doha to Cancun 从多哈到坎昆的历程 Aim to negotiate reductions in agricultural support and increased market access by means of formulae – the negotiation of these formulae along with approaches to Singapore issues and SDT known as negotiations on modalities 目标是削减农业支持,扩大市场准入——通过削减关税的公式和处理新加坡议题和特殊差别待遇的模式,也就是所谓的谈判模式 finish round by end 2005 在2005年底完成 the story so far: from Doha to Cancun 从多哈到坎昆的历程:  2008-5-7 4 the story so far: from Doha to Cancun 从多哈到坎昆的历程 little progress to Cancun ministerial in 2003 which collapsed over 直到2003年的坎昆会议都没有什么进展,主要障碍: EU/US August 2003 paper on agricultural modalities (which led to formation of G20 and G90 groups of developing countries), 欧盟/美国 2003年秋季关于农业势态的报告(该报告导致发展中国家结成G20和G90集团) the Singapore issues, 新加坡议题 developed country support for cotton 发达国家对棉花的补贴 erosion of tariff preferences. 关税参数选择的干预 The Story so far: After Cancun 坎昆会议之后的故事::  2008-5-7 5 The Story so far: After Cancun 坎昆会议之后的故事: Collapse at Cancun followed by no substantive action until July 2004 when agreed: 坎昆会议没有达成实质协议的失败直到2004年7月才达成了以下条款: A framework for negotiating on modalities 谈判模式框架 That only trade facilitation remained in table from the Singapore issues 新加坡会议以后一直没有进展的贸易便利化问题 The Story so far: After Cancun 坎昆会议之后的故事::  2008-5-7 6 The Story so far: After Cancun 坎昆会议之后的故事: That DDA agreement postponed till end 2006 多哈协议推迟至2006年底达成 That Hong Kong ministerial should aim to agree ‘full modalities’ to allow negotiations to complete by early 2006 and full agreement text to be ready by end 2006 香港部长会议应该立足于同意所有的模式以便在2006年初达成协议和在2006年底完成所有的协议文本 These dates mandated by expiry of US trade promotion authority in mid 2007 without possibility of renewal or extension 以上日期是由2007年中美国推动谈判的角色将要过期而且不会有任何延长决定的 The run up to Hong Kong 为香港部长会议助跑:  2008-5-7 7 The run up to Hong Kong 为香港部长会议助跑 Almost no progress between July 2004 and October 2005 except to define the areas of dispute 2004年7月至2005年10月之间 没有任何进展,以至于希望可以定义争端的范围 US agricultural offer in October 2005 opened up negotiations 2005年10月,美国农业提案开始谈判 EU made two subsequent offers on agriculture which failed to satisfy G90, US, Cairns Group. Refuses to go further without improved offer until G90 make better offer on NAMA and services 欧盟后来的两份提案也不能够令G90集团,美国满意. 在G20集团没有提供更好的非农市场准入和服务贸易提案之前,欧盟拒绝提升其农业提案 The run up to Hong Kong 为香港部长会议助跑:  2008-5-7 8 The run up to Hong Kong 为香港部长会议助跑 G90 refused to go beyond (unacceptable to EU) offers on NAMA and services unless EU goes further than last offer G90集团拒绝提升非农业市场准入和服务贸易的提案除非欧盟改进其农业提案 Result is a stand off and EU signals no further movement ahead of Hong Kong 以上分歧导致的结果谈判的停顿,在香港部长级会议以前,欧盟也没有任何要进一步动作的信号 Hong Kong Draft declaration 香港部长会议草案的声明::  2008-5-7 9 Hong Kong Draft declaration 香港部长会议草案的声明: Text issued on 26 November 11月26日颁布的文本内容: Records progress to date 记录进展的日期 Encourages ministers to go further 鼓励部长进行更深入谈判 Asks for new dates to agree full modalities and final agreement 同意所有谈判模式和达成最后协议的新日期 Objective remains to complete DDA by end 2006 旨在2006年底前完成多哈回合的目标 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么:  2008-5-7 10 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么 on agriculture by agreeing the size of cuts in support and the disciplines on blue and green boxes, agreeing on a date for the abolition of export subsidies and by agreeing a formula to cut tariffs both for normal and for sensitive products. 农业方面: 同意减免补贴的范围,减少蓝绿盒子的要求,确定减少出口补贴的日期, 达成对一般产品和敏感产品的关税减让公式. What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么:  2008-5-7 11 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么 on NAMA by agreeing on a Swiss formula for cutting tariffs and on a pair of coefficients that determine the size of tariff cuts for developed and developing countries, 非农市场准入方面: 同意降低关税的瑞典公式, 就发达和发展中国家决定关税减免程度的一系列参数达成一致意见 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么:  2008-5-7 12 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么 on services market access by agreeing an approach based on model schedules in key sectors to be agreed plurilaterally among coalitions of the willing. On the specific issue of delivery of services by the temporary movement of workers (Mode 4) those developed and larger developing countries which have not yet made an offer, notably the US, should indicate their intention to do so. 服务市场准入方面: 创立一个整合各方意见的进入模式 但是发达国家(特别是美国)和大的发展中国家都没有任何提案 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么:  2008-5-7 13 What needs to be done to save Doha 挽救多哈:我们可以做什么 on a supplementary development package to include an aid for trade facility to compensate for preference erosion, duty and quota free access for LDC, and abolition of developed country support for cotton production 在关于发展问题的附件方面:需要增加一个关于补偿优惠损失、对特别不发达国家提供零关税和配额的、废除发达国家补贴棉花的提案。 Who needs to move 谁应该采取行动? :  2008-5-7 14 Who needs to move 谁应该采取行动? The EU has to agree to a substantial improvement in their offers on agricultural liberalisation. To give a certain date for abolition of export subsidies. It also has to be prepared to agree to drop its proposal for quantitative targets for services sector opening. 欧盟必须在农业提案方面有一个更加实质的改进 The US must address how it can contribute to duty and quota free access for LDC perhaps with flexibilities on sensitive products (as the EU has on EBA) and to agree to more access on services under mode 4. if there is an outline. If there is an acceptable agriculture package agreed at Hong Kong it could offer early delivery on cutting support to cotton 美国必须说明他如何为特别不发达国家提供零关税和零配额的政策,包括对敏感产品更有弹性的措施;同时必须同意MODE4下面更开放的服务贸易的准入。如果有一个大纲以及在香港部长会议上达成一个可以接受的农业提案,美国可以提出一个减免棉花补贴的提案。 Who needs to move 谁应该采取行动? :  2008-5-7 15 Who needs to move 谁应该采取行动? Brazil and India as leaders of the G20 need to give the developed countries confidence that if there is progress on agriculture, mode 4 and a development package there will also be: improved access to G20 manufacturing and services markets. The G20 will also need to be prepared to take part in general agricultural liberalisation subject to the ability to protect sensitive sectors China if it wishes a success at Hong Kong will need to signal a willingness to move beyond its WTO accession package. The G90 if offered an acceptable aid for trade facility as part of a package on preference erosion, flexibilities on NAMA and services as well as duty and quota free access for its LDC members and a cotton deal for its African members should signal preparedness not to veto an ambitious package of market opening among the developed countries and the G20. The costs of failure 多哈回合失败的成本:  2008-5-7 16 The costs of failure 多哈回合失败的成本 The draft declaration if adopted unchanged: Threatens to make completion of the DDA by end 2006 impossible is likely to throw any agreement into the next US administration after 2008 May lead to the abandonment of the DDA Threatens a disengagement of the major trading nations from the WTO and perhaps a move towards a world of trade blocs around Europe, the US and perhaps China What is at stake for trade associations and consumers 行业协会和消费者面临的危险::  2008-5-7 17 What is at stake for trade associations and consumers 行业协会和消费者面临的危险: The WTO a defence against discrimination A force for rules led and progressive global liberalisation A neutral forum for pursuing trade disputes and disciplining protectionism Losing these would put exporters and consumers at mercy of most powerful governments and protectionist lobbies across the world What should Trade Associations be doing ahead of Hong Kong 香港部长会议之前:行业协会应该做什么?:  2008-5-7 18 What should Trade Associations be doing ahead of Hong Kong 香港部长会议之前:行业协会应该做什么? Persuading Chinese government that a successful DDA depends on a more ambitious outcome at Hong Kong than seems likely Lobbying the Chinese government to give up defensive interests eg on Services in exchange for other countries giving up their defensive interests on NAMA and agriculture Asking Chinese government to lead the G20 to make offers on NAMA and Services that encourage (and are conditional on ) better agricultural offers from the EU (and Japan and Korea)

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