Published on March 17, 2009
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR QUARTER BAROMETER ANALYSIS OF THE PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE 4th QUARTER 2008 vs 1st QUARTER 2009 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 1 Lisbon, 26 February 2009
TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction 3 1 - Residential Tourism Market Confidence 4 2.1 - Level of business activity - Sales 5 2.2 - Level of business activity – Holiday Rentals 6 3.1 Weight f S l 3 1 - W i ht of Sales per t typology – A t l Apartments,Townhouses and Vill tT h d Villas 7 3.2 - Weight of Holiday Rentals per tipology – Apartaments and Villas 10 4 - Market Interest in the regions of Oeste, Lisboa , Algarve and Porto in the 4th Quarter 2008 12 5.1 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Sales 13 5.2 - Market Interest in the 4th Quarter 2008, per Country of Origin: Holiday Rentals 14 6 - Ranking of the buying decision factors for the 4th Quarter 2008 15 7 - Markets that represented a competitive threat to Portugal in the 1st Quarter 2009 16 8.1 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Sales 17 8.2 8 2 - Overall level of confidence in the Portuguese residential tourism market for the 2nd Quarter 2009 – Holiday Rentals 18 9 - Marketing measures that entities are considering to implement on the 1st Quarter 2009 19 10 – Final conclusions ILM ■ THR 20 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR INTRODUCTION Developed by ILM ■ THR, the 10-10-10 Residential Tourism Survey consists of a quarterly barometer analysis, the objective of which is to evaluate the market’s level of confidence, performance and trends of the tourist real estate sector in Portugal. This analysis is one of the three initiatives launched by ILM ■ THR during 2008, under the umbrella brand of “Portugal Residential Tourism Market Intelligence”, which have a common objective – to provide market information, and collecting detailed and updated information on the Residential Tourism. For the development of the present analysis, a questionnaire comprising10 questions was submitted to the following Developers and Real Estate Agents - leaders in the national market: 8 Developers: Norte Golfe Promoções Turísticas e Imobiliárias, S.A. - Porto Bom Sucesso - Óbidos Empreendimentos Turísticos, S.A. - Óbidos ORIZON CAMPOREAL S.A. - Óbidos MSF - TUR.IM, SGPS, S.A. - Lisboa Newlyn Portugal - Algarve Pestana Imobiliária - Algarve Vale do Lobo, Resort Turístico de Luxo, S. A. - Algarve g Grupo Oceânico – Oeste e Algarve 8 Real Estate Agents: Abacus Savills - Lisboa Atlantic Estates - Algarve, Lisboa e Costa de Prata Garvetur - Sociedade de Mediação Imobiliária S.A. - Algarve ç g IRG International Reality Group - Lisboa John D Griffiths - Algarve Prunty's Overseas Properties S.A. - Lisboa Sadlers Mediação Imobiliária - Knight Frank - Algarve Winkworth - Algarve II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 3
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 1 - RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET CONFIDENCE CONFIDENCE 1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008 Residential Tourism Market Confidence 1st Quarter 2009 vs 4th Quarter 2008 80% 40% LOW TO AVERAGE 27% 13% 13% 7% Low Average Average Average Low High high Comparing the 1st quarter 2009 with 4th quarter 2008, 13% of the participants in the analysis have classified the market confidence as low, 40% average low and 27% average. It is important to highlight that in the perspective of the Developers, the market confidence appears slightly higher when compared with that of the Real Estate Agents. Qualitative comments: Developers: “Potential clients are insecure and not ready for investment decisions”. “Media reports and continued bank problems have totally scared people off in investing -- even for those who have the money”. II L M LM Real Estate Agents: “Currently we do not see any difference in perceptions in Q1 when compared with Q4 2008 which was quite depressed”. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 4 “We hope that by the Q4 2009 the confidence will return to the market”. “We predict a market bottom around March - April at which time it will regain strength”.
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 2.1 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY - SALES SALES 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 Level of Business Activity - Sales 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 69% 69% SIMILAR 31% 0% Lower Similar Higher In the opinion of the Developers the level of Business Activity on Sales has been similar in the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2008 whereas the Developers, Real Estate Agents consider that the level has been lower for the same period. Considering the analysis per Region, the participating entities consider that the level of business activity diminished in the Algarve, and maintained levels in the areas of Lisbon, Porto and Oeste. Developers: “Investorsquot; are looking for bargain buys, but we are not prepared to discount to the levels they are looking for.”. Real Estate Agents: “Strong deterioration in market conditions from October to end December”. “The quantity does not express the drop in turnover. We felt a big drop in sales price from Q3 to Q4 2008”. “We have sold the same number of properties as in Q3 2008 but at lower prices”. We prices II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 5
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 2.2 - LEVEL OF BUSINESS ACTIVITY – HOLIDAY RENTALS 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 HOLIDAY RENTALS Level of Business Activity – Holiday Rentals 3rd Quarter 2008 vs 4th Quarter 2008 50% LOWER 50% 50% 50% SIMILAR 0% Lower Similar Higher The holiday rentals is only applicable to 8 of the survey participants and 50% of them consider that the level of business activity was similar and the remainder that the it was similar. In the opinion of the Developers, the level of business activity for holiday rentals was similar, whereas the Real Estate Agents consider that there are indications of a decline in this area. Analysing the data by Region enables us o conclude that in the Algarve and in Lisbon the level of business activity decreased. “The Q3 is the high season and the Q4 is low season”. “Our rentals business in predominantly a Q3 business. We do not expect to see strong rentals in Q4”. II L M “The clients generally book, concentrate on summer holiday rental and first 2 months”. LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 6
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.1 – WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - APARTAMENTS Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y The apartment supply is lower for typologies T0 and T4. APARTMENTS A significant part of the apartment sales was of typology T2 with 33%, T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 followed by the T3 which represented 18% of the business activity. Developers 15.3% 15.1% 33.0% 18.6% 5.4% Comparing the opinions of Developers with the Real Estate Agents the distribution of the business activity is similar, except for the T0 Real Estate typology. This may be justified by different sales and marketing 5.5% 11,5% 38.1% 27.4% 2.3% Agents approaches. Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments According to the participants, the trend of the sales activity will be similar. Similar Decrease Increase I Not Applicable T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 7
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - TOWNHOUSES Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y TOWNHOUSES The behaviour is very similar in the opinion of all the participants. TH2 TH3 TH4 We see that the business generated with Townhouses (TH) of 2 bedrooms is significant because, despite the average prices being 21.3% 21 3% 24.5% 24 5% 14.0% 14 0% Total Ttl lower than TH3, the generated volume is very similar between them. Developers 22.1% 26.3% 11.7% Real Estate Agents 20.0% 21.3% 17.5% Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Townhouses Trend of the Townhouses sales in the 1st “There is less demand for Townhouses when compared with previous years”. The trend of the activity level for the Townhouses is likely to be Quarter 2009 similar or to decrease. Especially in the case of Townhouses of 4 bedrooms it is more certain that there will be even less demand for this product. The opinions of the Real Estate Agents and the Developers coincides. Similar Decrease Increase Not Applicable TH2 TH3 TH4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 8
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.1 - WEIGHT OF SALES PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS Sales activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y VILLAS Once again the opinions are similar among all the participants. V2 V3 V4 V5 The typology V2 is of minimal importance. The figures for V3 and V4 Total 10,5% 33.0% 31.9% 11.3% are particularly significant. Developers 7.0% 31.8% 34.4% 11.3% Real Estate Agents 0.0% 23.3% 47.5% 16.0% Trend of sales in the 1stt Quarter 2009 - Villas Trend of sales in the 1st Quarter 2009 A higher volume of villa sales is foreseen for a price positioning at the - Villas high end of the market. The trend of villas sales in the near future is positive and there is a perception of improvement for V3 and V4. Moreover, we can observe that the Real Estate Agents are more positive than the Developers for this product in the 1st quarter 2009. Similar Decrease Increase Not Applicable II L M LM V2 V3 V4 V5 INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 9
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY- APARTMENTS Holiday Rentals activity in the 4th Quarter 2008 y y APARTMENTS There is not enough information to evaluate the holiday rentals activity for the Real Estate Agents. T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 Total We can identify that the major part of the demand, at least in this y jp , 10.0% 35.0% 40.7% 11.7% 10% season, is positioned in apartments T1 and T2. This is different to Developers sales, which are more active for the T2 and T3. 10.0% 35.0% 45.0% 11.7% 10% Real Estate “The demand of T2 has increased for the golf market” N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Agents “The situation is similar with the transition of 2007 to 2008” Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Apartments The trend is clearly to increase the business activity of holiday rentals rentals, which is normal considering that the 1st Quarter of the year usually has more activity. Similar The current business forecast does not necessarily mean that the movement will be reflected in the occupancy rates for the 1st Quarter. Decrease On the contrary we know that the bookings made by the British contrary, Increase market are for the summer season and are traditionally prepared at this time of the year. Not Applicable T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 10
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 3.2 - WEIGHT OF HOLIDAY RENTALS PER TYPOLOGY - VILLAS Holiday Rentals activity In the 4th Quarter 2008 y y VILLAS It is interesting to verify that villa holiday rental activity has a higher impact on the Real Estates Agents’ income than that of the Algarve V2 V3 V4 Developers. 3.75 3 75 % 28.75 28 75 % 62.5 62 5 % Total The possible reasons for this situation are: 7.5 % 11.7 % 10 % Developers • Higher loyalty rate of the clients – there is not enough historical data in the case of the recent resorts. Real Estate Agents 32.5% 62.5% Na • More consolidated distribution channels. • Larger diversity of product supply. Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas Trend of holiday rentals in the 1st Quarter 2009 - Villas According to the participants, the trend for the level of activity is to be maintained. Similar Decrease Increase I Not Applicable T0 T1 T2 T3 T4 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 11
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 4 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE REGIONS OF OESTE, LISBOA , ALGARVE AND PORTO IN THE 4th Quarter 2008 th Quarter 2008 and trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 4 WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN TO DECREASE. DECREASE LISBOA STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR. WEAK INTEREST WITH TREND TO BE SIMILAR OR EVEN INCREASE. PORTO STRONG INTEREST WITH TREND TO INCREASE. II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 12
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 5.1 – MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: SALES BENELUX PORTUGAL ENGLAND IRELAND SPAIN SCANDINAVIA GERMANY INTEREST INTEREST WEAK WEAK INTEREST SIMILAR SIMILAR BETWEEN BETWEEN INTEREST INTEREST BETWEEN INTEREST WITH INTEREST SIMILAR SIMILAR WITH TREND WITH TREND SIMILAR AND TREND TO BE WITH TREND AND WEAK AND WEAK TO BE SIMILAR TO BE SIMILAR STRONG SIMILAR. SIMILAR TO BE WITH TREND WITH TREND OR DECREASE OR WITH TREND SIMILAR. TO BE TO BE DECREASE. TO BE SIMILAR. SIMILAR. SIMILAR. The interest of the market revealed for France and the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied from weak to similar and its trend for h the 1 st Quarter 2009 is to be similar. The interest of the market revealed by Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the weak and the strong and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar. OTHER COUNTRIES AND REGIONS ARE BECOMING INTERESTED IN AQUISITION OF PROPERTIES IN PORTUGAL: SAUDIT ARABIA , POLAND, CENTRAL AFRICA, TURKEY, II L M LM VENEZUELA, AUSTRALIA, BRAZIL, GUATEMALA. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 13 13
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 5.2 - MARKET INTEREST IN THE 4th QUARTER 2008, PER COUNTRY OF ORIGIN: HOLIDAY RENTALS BENELUX PORTUGAL ENGLAND IRELAND SPAIN SCANDINAVIA GERMANY SIMILAR OR INTEREST SIMILAR SIMILAR WEAK SIMILAR SIMILAR WEAK BETWEEN INTEREST OR INTEREST INTEREST INTEREST WITH INTEREST INTEREST SIMILAR AND WEAK WITH WITH TREND WITH TREND TREND TO BE WITH TREND WITH TREND STRONG WITH TREND TO TO BE SIMILAR TO BE SIMILAR TO INCREASE TO BE TREND TO BE DECREASE OR OR INCREASE SIMILAR . SIMILAR. SIMILAR OR BE SIMILAR DECREASE The interest of the market shown for the Eastern Europe countries during the 4th Quarter 2008 varied between the similar and the weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to decrease or to be similar. The interest of the market shown for France during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar. The interest of the market shown for Russia during the 4th Quarter 2008 was weak and its trend for the 1st Quarter 2009 is to be similar or to increase. II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 14
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 6 - RANKING OF THE BUYING DECISION FACTORS FOR THE 4th QUARTER 2008 Developers and Real RANKING Developers Real Estate Agents Estate Agents Factors Average Ranking Average Ranking Average Ranking Product price p 5 7 7 2 6 3 1. 1 GENERAL MARKET CONFIDENCE General market confidence 1 7 1 9 1 8 Currency exchange 7 2 7 3 7 2 2. CURRENCY EXCHANGE Primary value source market 6 5 5 6 5 7 Range of residential products on 3. PRODUCT PRICE offer 7 2 4 9 5 6 Ease of travel to the nearest 4. CLIMATE international airport it ti li t 5 9 5 8 5 8 Ease of travel to the site(s) location 4 10 5 6 5 9 5. OTHER(S) Climate 6 5 6 4 6 4 6. RANGE OF RESIDENTIAL PRODUCTS Security 5 8 4 9 5 9 Other(s) 6 4 5 5 6 5 ON OFFER 7. 7 PRIMARY VALUE SOURCE MARKET 8. EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE NEAREST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Other factors mentioned were: 9. SECURITY EASE OF TRAVEL TO THE - Availability of mortgages at competitive rates SITE(S) LOCATION () - Property location – i.e. distance from beach, golf, etc II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 15
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 7 - MARKETS THAT REPRESENTED A COMPETITIVE THREAT TO PORTUGAL IN THE 1st QUARTER 2009 Traditional markets Total Average Ranking RANKING Spain 39 3,5 35 1 France 34 2,8 2 1. SPAIN Emergent markets Total Average Ranking 2. FRANCE Cyp us Cyprus 22 2,2 , 4 3. TURKEY Turkey 28 3,1 3 Greece 22 2,4 4 4. CYPRUS AND GREECE Bulgary 14 1,6 8 5. USA AND CARIBBEAN Malta 14 1,8 8 6. 6 DUBAI 7. MOROCCO AND NORTH AFRICA Other markets Total Average Ranking Morocco and North Africa 18 2,3 7 8. BULGARY AND MALTA USA and Caribbean 21 2,9 5 PALOP's 11 1,4 9 9. PALOP´S Dubai bi 19 2,4 6 II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 16
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 8.1 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 - SALES Level of Confidence in the Portuguese SALES Residential Tourism Market ‐ Sales 2nd Quarter 2009 LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE 33% 33% 66% 13% 13% FROM WEAK 7% AVERAGE TO AVERAGE Lower Average Higher It is important to highlight that in the 2nd Quarter 2009, the Real Estate Agents have shown more confidence on the market that the Developers. “I think we will continue to see lower volumes of transactions in Q2 although it should show a slight improvement over Q1” “Good year ahead” “The clients are there. We need to make them special and create confidence in the products”. “We have already seen a very strong demand from the local market for our products and we are expecting a number of sales. Due to current economic crisis we do not expect a good financial year The Q3 and Q4 may look better but Q2 will be poor given feedback and crisis, year. better, II L M comments from clients. I think that it is very difficult to preview the next months. Unfortunately, we are depending on a global economy.” LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS “We are assisting to an increase on the demand of fractionals.“ 17
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 8.2 - OVERALL LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE PORTUGUESE RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET FOR THE 2nd QUARTER 2009 – HOLIDAY RENTALS HOLIDAY RENTALS Level of Confidence in the Portuguese LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE Residential Tourism Market ‐ Holiday Rentals 2nd Quarter 2009 37,5% 37,5% 37,5 % FROM AVERAGE 12,5% WEAK TO AVERAGE 12,5% AND 37 5% AVERAGE 37,5% 0,0% STRONG Lower Average Higher The holiday rentals is applicable only to half of the participant entities – 5 Developers and 3 Real Estate Agents. The Developers estimate a level of confidence higher than that anticipated by the Real Estate Agents. Qualitative comments: Developers: The market conditions may improve in the 2nd Quarter 2009. Real Estate Agents: “The rental business is driven by UK holiday clients therefore, considering economic crisis and the valuation of the euro in relation to the y y g pound, we believe it will be a slow year.” II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 18
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 9 - MARKETING MEASURES THAT ENTITIES ARE CONSIDERING TO IMPLEMENT ON THE 1st QUARTER 2009 “Increase our presence in new markets and keep investing in marketing and communication. We are increasing the investment in direct marketing (database)” “We are keeping our marketing budget for the Q2. We will focus on promotion of the website to target broader potential client base with a focus on European countries. Translation of website in other languages and promotion through agents in other countries. We are investing on local promotion as 19% of clients are generated locally and develop promotions targeted to Developers”. “Continued promotion in top of the range magazines to focus on top end market”. “Training staff to ensure they are fully able to deal with the issues, concerns of buyers and vendors alike”. “Reinforcing the internet marketing hard sales training agents network and private shows to potential clients ” Reinforcing marketing, training, clients. “Our Marketing costs have been reduced in Portugal but have been similar to the UK with advertising on Sunday Times, Telegraph and relevant web sites. We are opening new offices and participate in exhibitions.” “Our objective is to create loyalty with customer. Increase the focus on the luxury lifestyle buyers adapting our marketing to the demand. We are focusing more on events and less focus on printed material more into web marketing, increasing the quality of the information available on the web site.” “We are minimizing marketing expenses and sale operation costs. We are redefining sales & marketing strategy and re-evaluating product range and price payment terms conditions.. We will follow up and evaluate closely development of market conditions in Portugal, UK and Ireland.” “We are concentrating our Marketing efforts on the Portuguese market as we have seen an increase in demand from the local market. We are establishing partnerships with local agent to promote developments. We are investing in internet advertising in Portugal, outdoor advertising and install on site sales office “We are implementing marketing actions in Ireland and the UK will be more focused on personal contact with the client and networking to boost consumer confidence and gain trust through building a client relationship and bringing the clients to Portugal on inspection trips. We are establishing partnerships with the Russian market with local agents.“ II L M LM INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS 19
PORTUGAL RESIDENTIAL TOURISM MARKET INTELLIGENCE 10 10 10 QUESTIONS DEVELOPERS AGENTS ILM ■ THR QUARTERLY MONITOR 10. FINAL CONCLUSIONS ILM ■ THR There are no doubts that the world economic crisis affected the national real estate market and strongly hit the confidence, firstly of the Real Estate Agents and followed by the Developers. The entities consulted in the scope of the present analysis pointed out a recovery of the confidence on the 4th Quarter 2009, being perceptible a significant increase on the following Quarter (April to June), mostly conducted by the Real Estate Agents as a result of the direct contact they maintain with the demand. Regarding the level of activity, if in the perspective of the Real Estate Agents there has been a decrease on the sales volume, in the perspective of the Developers this has been similar and there has been identified a slight descendent on the prices, as a more visible consequence of the economic crisis. The analysis of the volume of sales per mix of supply enables to highlight that the more demanded typologies of apartments and townhouses were 2 and 3 bedrooms and it is foreseen that this situation is going to be similar. In the case of villas, the situation is slightly different, different being predominant the interest of the typologies V3 and V4 which tends to increase Moreover it is important to point out that V4, increase. regarding the demand for villas, the real estate agents are more optimistic that the developers. Generally we can conclude that the interest of the market is more sensible to the economic instability in the national regions where the THE 2ND tourist real estate is more developed - Algarve and Oeste. According to the consulted entities, these regions registered a weak interest of the demand with trend to maintain or increase in the Algarve and maintain or decrease in the Oeste. O 2º TRIMESTRE QUARTER 2009 In the regions of Lisboa and Porto the interest of the market tends to be remain strong. g g MAY 2009 DEVEA DE PRESENT Analyzing the demand by countries of origin, the demand of countries such as Portugal, Spain, Germany, Scandinavia and Benelux tend to APRESENTAR SLIGHT maintain the interest on the national residential tourism market. Opposite to the demand of the markets in England and Ireland that present a weak interest with trend to decrease, as consequence of the strong impacts that reached the economies of those countries. It is important UMA LIGEIRA IMPROVEMENT to emphasize that this difference will be more sensed in the national market in relation to the markets of England and Ireland, in face of the MELHORIA WHEN strong dependence of Portugal to this two countries as great incoming markets of residential tourism. COMPARANDO It is curious to verify the growing interest of demand by emergent markets such as Saudi Arabia, Poland, Central Africa, Turkey, Venezuela, COMPARED Australia, Brazil and Guatemala. WITH THE1º ST COM O 1 In the basis of changes on the demand of residential tourism may be, besides the economic constraints, factors related with the competitive TRIMESTRE QUARTER 2009 supply of emergent countries such as Turkey, Cyprus or Greece, which are countries considered by the developers and real estate agents consulted on this analysis as true competitive threats to Portugal. In a period of market stability factors such as the climate the security occupy the first positions in a ranking of the buying decision factors stability, climate, II L M of a tourist residential unit. However, on the period of analysis, those factors are drastically surpassed by factors such as the general LM market confidence, currency exchange and product price. INTERNATIONAL TOURISM ADVISERS
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