Resilience and the Knowledge Revolution

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Published on April 22, 2008

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Resilience and the Knowledge Revolution:  Resilience and the Knowledge Revolution Pegram Lectures Brookhaven National Laboratories Graciela Chichilnisky UNESCO Chair in Mathematics and Economics Columbia University Human impact on the environment is uncertain:  Human impact on the environment is uncertain CLIMATE CHANGE AND BIODIVERSITY DESTRUCTION These are global problems. They are new. Science is uncertain. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Policy-Makers Summary July 1990 Under a Business-as-Usual Scenario of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: ●Global Mean Temperature will increase at a rate of 0.3°C per decade (with uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade) 1°C above present by 2025 3°C above present by end of next century ●Rate of increase will be uneven and will vary regionally (e.g. , higher over land). ●Global Mean Sea Level is expected to rise 6 cm per decade (with an uncertainty range of 3-10 cm per decade 20 cm above present by 2030 65 cm above present by end of next century:  INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENTIFIC ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Policy-Makers Summary July 1990 Under a Business-as-Usual Scenario of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: ●Global Mean Temperature will increase at a rate of 0.3°C per decade (with uncertainty range of 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade) 1°C above present by 2025 3°C above present by end of next century ●Rate of increase will be uneven and will vary regionally (e.g. , higher over land). ●Global Mean Sea Level is expected to rise 6 cm per decade (with an uncertainty range of 3-10 cm per decade 20 cm above present by 2030 65 cm above present by end of next century ● Most of the destruction of the earth’s ecosystems is driven by economic incentives ●Forests, where most known biodiversity resides, are cleared for the extraction of natural resources (oil, wood products) or to give way for cash crops and grazing:  ● Most of the destruction of the earth’s ecosystems is driven by economic incentives ●Forests, where most known biodiversity resides, are cleared for the extraction of natural resources (oil, wood products) or to give way for cash crops and grazing The globalization of the world economy since World War II has intensified a pattern of resource use by which developing nations extract most natural resources, exporting them to industrial nations at prices that are often below replacement costs:  The globalization of the world economy since World War II has intensified a pattern of resource use by which developing nations extract most natural resources, exporting them to industrial nations at prices that are often below replacement costs To solve the environmental dilemma we must cut the link between resource use and economic progress. The key is to achieve a new type of industrialization, which is not based on resource exports: a knowledge intensive form of economic progress.:  To solve the environmental dilemma we must cut the link between resource use and economic progress. The key is to achieve a new type of industrialization, which is not based on resource exports: a knowledge intensive form of economic progress. ● We must incorporate the dynamics of markets in the management of ecosystems ● The market has become a key institution in the destruction of the earth’s ecosystems. No policy that ignores this fact can succeed.:  ● We must incorporate the dynamics of markets in the management of ecosystems ● The market has become a key institution in the destruction of the earth’s ecosystems. No policy that ignores this fact can succeed. MARKETS:  MARKETS are the dominant institution in the global economy. As the century turns, the market itself is evolving. TWO MAJOR TRENDS:  TWO MAJOR TRENDS The Knowledge Revolution Global Environmental Problems Lead to new and fundamental different types of markets Markets are widely used institutions:  Markets are widely used institutions They are decentralized, and can be efficient. But global environmental markets trade unusual goods: privately produced public goods Biodiversity is one The planet’s atmosphere is another EXAMPLES:  EXAMPLES The trading of SO2 in the Chicago Board of Trade since 1993, following the Clean Air Act Proposed Water Markets in California Market for Emission Permits:  Market for Emission Permits Annex I Countries are given allocations of property rights on emissions summing up to the 1990 level, and they can trade these freely among themselves ● Environmental Markets ● Markets for Knowledge Both trade new and different types of goods: Privately Produced Public Goods (PPP):  ● Environmental Markets ● Markets for Knowledge Both trade new and different types of goods: Privately Produced Public Goods (PPP) The Knowledge Revolution:  The Knowledge Revolution In many countries, is leading to a new economy, with different environmental problems and new opportunities for action. Examples: Asian Tigers and Little tigers, parts of India and Barbados. The Knowledge Revolution:  The Knowledge Revolution US leads the pack because of its property-rights systems and financial markets. Japan lost in the software race because of property-rights systems. ● This is not a :service economy” as previously thought. ● It is a new economy using knowledge rather than capital as the most important input of production. ● Fossil fuels are now replaced by information technology:  ● This is not a :service economy” as previously thought. ● It is a new economy using knowledge rather than capital as the most important input of production. ● Fossil fuels are now replaced by information technology Sunrise sectors are knowledge intensive: biotechnology, telecommunications, financial markets, health services and entertainment and culture. MORE AMERICANS WORK IN BIOTECHNOLOGY THAN IN THE ENTIRE MACHINE TOOL INDUSTRY MORE AMERICANS MAKE SEMICONDUCTORS THAN CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY IN NORTH AMERICA EMPLOYS MORE PEOPLE THAN THE AUTO AND AUTO PART INDUSTRY COMBINED FOSSIL FUEL IS REPLACED BY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY:  Sunrise sectors are knowledge intensive: biotechnology, telecommunications, financial markets, health services and entertainment and culture. MORE AMERICANS WORK IN BIOTECHNOLOGY THAN IN THE ENTIRE MACHINE TOOL INDUSTRY MORE AMERICANS MAKE SEMICONDUCTORS THAN CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRY IN NORTH AMERICA EMPLOYS MORE PEOPLE THAN THE AUTO AND AUTO PART INDUSTRY COMBINED FOSSIL FUEL IS REPLACED BY INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY “New Economy” Examples:  “New Economy” Examples The US health and medical industry alone has become larger than defense, and also larger than oil refining, aircraft, autos, auto parts, logging, steel and shipping put together More Americans work in biotechnology than in the entire machine tools industry Consumers now spend more on home electronics than on new cars:  Consumers now spend more on home electronics than on new cars $95 billion a year on home computers, TVs and stereos. $85 billion a year on new cars. Productivity is driven by the knowledge sectors:  Productivity is driven by the knowledge sectors According to the Federal Reserve Board, US industrial production in 1997-98 increased at a strong 4.1% annual rate, 4.4% during 1996. Take away computers and semiconductors and the rate drops to 2.2% The New Economy Starts to Hit Home:  The New Economy Starts to Hit Home Increases in personal spending: Key old economy items Motor vehicles: 0.3% Food: 0.6% Major Appliances: 1.1% Clothing: 2/3% Average: 0.9% Key new economy items Home telephone services: 8.8% Entertainment & recreation services: 12.4% Cable TV: 13.4% Brokerage and other financial services: 15.6% Average: 12.5% Source: Business Week, March 23, 1998 ● Today more Americans make semiconductors than construction machinery ● The telecommunications industry in North America employs more people than the auto and the auto parts industries combined:  ● Today more Americans make semiconductors than construction machinery ● The telecommunications industry in North America employs more people than the auto and the auto parts industries combined LEADING THE WAY TO ECO-FRIENDLY PROFITS:  LEADING THE WAY TO ECO-FRIENDLY PROFITS Some major manufacturers have decided to do more than reduce waste and clean up pollution. They are developing products and processes that make it profitable to be environmentally friendly. DUPONT has co-developed 3GT, a bioengineered polyester fabric made from cornstarch that is lower in cost than oil-based polyester and can be recycled indefinitely. SONOCO has created an rectangular “paper can” for Lipton Iced Tea that is 70% recyclable. 3M has developed a plastic coating for the Navy to replace paint on trucks, ships and trains. It’s lighter than paint, which leads to greater fuel efficiency. S.C. JOHNSON reformulated Raid roach killer, converting from a solvent-based to a water-based formula. ELECTROLUX’ environmental products, including solar-powered lawn mowers, chain saws lubricated with vegetable oil, and water saving washing machines, generated 3.8% higher profits last year than the company’s conventional products. TOYOTA is introducing a hybrid car that gets 66 mph on a combination of gasoline and electricity. A. FINKL & SONS, a Chicago steel forger, recycles more than 955 of its solid waste and has cut energy use by 36.4% over 10 years, making it one of the most efficient forgers in the world. BRITISH PETROLEUM has invested $160 million in developing solar energy and is building a completely solar-powered Olympic village for the 1998 Summer Games in Australia.:  ELECTROLUX’ environmental products, including solar-powered lawn mowers, chain saws lubricated with vegetable oil, and water saving washing machines, generated 3.8% higher profits last year than the company’s conventional products. TOYOTA is introducing a hybrid car that gets 66 mph on a combination of gasoline and electricity. A. FINKL & SONS, a Chicago steel forger, recycles more than 955 of its solid waste and has cut energy use by 36.4% over 10 years, making it one of the most efficient forgers in the world. BRITISH PETROLEUM has invested $160 million in developing solar energy and is building a completely solar-powered Olympic village for the 1998 Summer Games in Australia. The Developing World can leapfrog and avoid resource intensive industrialization:  The Developing World can leapfrog and avoid resource intensive industrialization The succesful Asian tigers relied on technology exports, such as consumer electronics In the last ten years India developed a Software industry worth $4 Billion USD in exports to 36 countries, one of the most dynamic in the world In recent years, nearly one-third of new tech companies in the Silicon Valley have been headed by Indian or Chinese executives USA Today, February 24, 1999:  In recent years, nearly one-third of new tech companies in the Silicon Valley have been headed by Indian or Chinese executives USA Today, February 24, 1999 Knowledge intensive growth is here today. It is the future. How to achieve the transition with minimum cost?:  Knowledge intensive growth is here today. It is the future. How to achieve the transition with minimum cost? Knowledge and Global Environment Assets:  Knowledge and Global Environment Assets Are not standard public goods such as law and order They are mostly produced privately, rather than by the government They are costly to produce Privately Produced Public Goods:  Privately Produced Public Goods are goods which are not “rival” in consumption, but are privately produced. We all produce emissions but the atmosphere is the same for us all. We produce knowledge privately but can share all of it with others without losing it. Knowledge and Global Environment are Privately Produced Public Goods:  Knowledge and Global Environment are Privately Produced Public Goods Why are they public goods? ● Knowledge is not “rival” in consumption – it can be shared without losing it Similarly:  Similarly Global environmental assets such as the carbon content of the atmosphere are one and the same for everybody on the planet. These are physical properties, independent of the economic institutions. The Paradox of Knowledge:  The Paradox of Knowledge It is costly to produce It can be duplicated without losing it. It can be shared at no cost Because it is costly, without property rights, such as patents, there is no incentive to produce knowledge. Example: Japan has no property rights on software, and produces almost none. Yet because it can be shared at no cost, any restriction on the use of knowledge is inefficient. For example: Patents are inefficient because they are monopolies (Stiglitz). We need new systems of property rights for knowledge. What is the solution?:  Yet because it can be shared at no cost, any restriction on the use of knowledge is inefficient. For example: Patents are inefficient because they are monopolies (Stiglitz). We need new systems of property rights for knowledge. What is the solution? Markets for PPP goods are different from the classical markets. They require new systems of property rights.:  Markets for PPP goods are different from the classical markets. They require new systems of property rights. Traditional Markets First Theorem of Welfare Economics:  Traditional Markets First Theorem of Welfare Economics The allocation resulting from a competitive market equilibrium with private goods is Pareto efficient. This theorem is independent of the distribution of property rights. For example, all but two traders may have zero endowments of property rights and the resulting equilibrium is still Pareto efficient. This requires all goods to be private goods, with rival consumption, and privately owned. Public goods change matters:  Public goods change matters A public good is a good which is not “rival” in consumption: this is not an economic or legal definition but rather a physical constraint. Examples: Knowledge , the concentration for CO2 or CFC’s in the atmosphere or the planet, available biodiversity is the planet. This leads to A New First Welfare Theorem in Markets with Privately Produced Public Goods in which equity and efficiency are closely linked:  A New First Welfare Theorem in Markets with Privately Produced Public Goods in which equity and efficiency are closely linked Privately Produced Public Goods:  Privately Produced Public Goods are goods which are not “rival” in consumption, but are privately produced. We all produce emissions but the atmosphere is the same for us all. We produce knowledge privately but can share all of it with others without losing it. A competitive market with property rights on knowledge:  A competitive market with property rights on knowledge An economy has H countries or traders who consume N private goods and one public good, Knowledge. They trade private goods x Î RN and licenses giving the rights to use knowledge, a Î R. Trader h has finite resources which are allocated to produce either private goods or knowledge. For each trader, there is a tradeoff between producing more private goods and producing more knowledge. However, more knowledge leads to higher productivity. Formally :  For each trader, there is a tradeoff between producing more private goods and producing more knowledge. However, more knowledge leads to higher productivity. Formally "h, xh = fh (ah, a), with ¶fh < 0, a = Sah and "h , ¶ xh > 0 or a = sup ah h Î H ¶ah ¶a Countries or traders have property rights Wh Î RN on private goods and own licenses that allow them to use knowledge, ah Î R. Traders derive utility from use of private goods x. Through negotiable licenses knowledge is available to all. :  Countries or traders have property rights Wh Î RN on private goods and own licenses that allow them to use knowledge, ah Î R. Traders derive utility from use of private goods x. Through negotiable licenses knowledge is available to all. Traders may use their licenses to access knowledge or may sell their licenses in the market. If they wish to use more knowledge than their licenses allow, they buy more licenses in the market. Markets for licenses are competitive.:  Traders may use their licenses to access knowledge or may sell their licenses in the market. If they wish to use more knowledge than their licenses allow, they buy more licenses in the market. Markets for licenses are competitive. Market equilibrium with knowledge Each trader maximizes welfare Max uh(xh) s.t. xh = fh (ah,a) + q (ah – ah) the value of consumption equals the value of production plus the value of licenses bought or sold, and all markets clear: Sah = Sah = a:  Market equilibrium with knowledge Each trader maximizes welfare Max uh(xh) s.t. xh = fh (ah,a) + q (ah – ah) the value of consumption equals the value of production plus the value of licenses bought or sold, and all markets clear: Sah = Sah = a First Welfare Theorem for Markets with Privately Produced Public Goods:  First Welfare Theorem for Markets with Privately Produced Public Goods Theorem In and economy with k≥2 traders, j≥1 private goods and a privately produced public good, there exists at most a one-dimensional manifold of property rights allocations on the use of the public good (allocation of “permits”) from which the competitive equilibrium is Pareto efficient. This is the Manifold of Efficient Allocations of Property Rights Theorem 1 (Chichilnisky, Heal and Starrett, 1993):  Theorem 1 (Chichilnisky, Heal and Starrett, 1993) There is only a finite number of ways of distributing licenses of property rights on the use of PPP goods between the traders so that the market equilibrium in Pareto efficient. Policy:  Policy Those who have fewer endowments of private goods must be endowed with more property rights on the use of the PPP good. Otherwise, the market does not operate efficiently. ● Efficiency and distribution are connected in markets with PPP goods. ● A measure of equity is necessary for efficiency. ● Markets with knowledge and environmental assets require equity for efficiency :  ● Efficiency and distribution are connected in markets with PPP goods. ● A measure of equity is necessary for efficiency. ● Markets with knowledge and environmental assets require equity for efficiency Policy Conclusions:  Policy Conclusions Markets with knowledge require some equity to function efficiently It is standard to favor lower income groups in knowledge-use. Examples are school subsidies for low income groups and school vouchers. The system of property rights proposed here is different from patents, because there is no exclusivity. Patents are exclusive Policy Conclusions:  Policy Conclusions The system proposed here consists of negotiable licenses which are accessible to all, together with a covenant and a system of property rights allocation (such as auctions) that favors those with low income. There exists microchips (Wave Technology, Inc.) that can measure the use of knowledge as required for the implementation of these results. Traders may use their licenses to access knowledge or may sell their licenses in the market. If they wish to use more knowledge than their licenses allow, they buy more license in the market. Markets for licenses are competitive:  Traders may use their licenses to access knowledge or may sell their licenses in the market. If they wish to use more knowledge than their licenses allow, they buy more license in the market. Markets for licenses are competitive A VISION OF A NEW ECONOMY:  A VISION OF A NEW ECONOMY Very innovative in the use of knowledge Very conservative in the use of resources Centered on diversity and human capital New types of markets based on property rights of enviromental use and knowledge Offering the prospect of substantial economic progress without damaging the ecosystems that support life on Earth US Policy in the World Economy::  US Policy in the World Economy: Help create International Markets for Trading Property Rights on the Use of Global Commons Possibly in conjunction with GATT or WTO Ensure Efficient Market Functioning for which Those regions with fewer endowments of private goods must be endowed with more property rights on the common environmental assets. Otherwise the market cannot operate efficiently. ● What are the institutions needed to implement emission trading? ● How to ensure efficiency and fair trading?:  ● What are the institutions needed to implement emission trading? ● How to ensure efficiency and fair trading? To answer these questions, a global financial mechanism must be designed that reflects full equitable and active participation of developing and industrial nations:  To answer these questions, a global financial mechanism must be designed that reflects full equitable and active participation of developing and industrial nations An International Bank for Environmental Settlements can help achieve this goal:  An International Bank for Environmental Settlements can help achieve this goal the IBES will help to obtain economic value from environmental assets without destroying them will help bridge the gap between developing and industrial countries Will provide a forum for adjusting to new scientific findings The IBES could help organize and broker::  The IBES could help organize and broker: The trading of rights on the use of global airwaves The trading of rights on greenhouse gases emissions and biodiversity use The trading of environmental bonds and earth stocks The trading of options and other derivatives based on the above The IBES could also:  The IBES could also Securitize profit sharing agreements on genetic blueprints Securitize profitable investments in aquifers, watersheds, biological soil enhancement and fisheries Provide bridge financing and credit enhancement facilities for all the above The case for an International Bank for Environmental Settlements (IBES):  The case for an International Bank for Environmental Settlements (IBES) Based on new economic findings on the existing proposal for trading carbon permits, an IBES can be created which ●will be self-financing ●will offer a combination of markets solution and continuing multilateral negotiations An International Bank for Environmental Settlements (IBES):  An International Bank for Environmental Settlements (IBES) GIVES ACCESS TO INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS FOR FUNDING CONSERVATION TO ALLEVIATE DEFAULT RISKS: CREDIT ENHANCEMENT BY WORLD BANK OR GEF The population explosion since World War II put stress on water resources globally Clean water is the most scarce resource around the world:  The population explosion since World War II put stress on water resources globally Clean water is the most scarce resource around the world ● IBES provides an institutional framework that combines the best aspects of free markets and multinational policy ● IBES can offer a continuing way to draw capital from global financial markets to support global environmental policy ● IBES will regulate and monitor compliance of trading of carbon permits globally (borrowing, lending and derivatives):  ● IBES provides an institutional framework that combines the best aspects of free markets and multinational policy ● IBES can offer a continuing way to draw capital from global financial markets to support global environmental policy ● IBES will regulate and monitor compliance of trading of carbon permits globally (borrowing, lending and derivatives) Policies To Avert Climate Change:  Policies To Avert Climate Change Policies to prevent climate change focus mainly on curtailing emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important greenhouse gas. ● Regulatory Approaches ● Market Approaches --- Carbon Taxes --- Joint Implementation --- Tradable Permits Policies To Prevent Climate Change:  Policies To Prevent Climate Change Carbon Taxes A mechanism to reduce carbon emissions is a carbon tax – a tax levied on all fossil fuels in proportion to their carbon contents. ●By raising the cost of fuels and energy intensive products, this tax would discourage all fossil fuel use in proportion to their carbon contents and encourage the development of less carbon-intensive alternatives. ●A recent statement by leading economists favors taxes over a regulatory approach. However, taxes increase government’s intervention in the economy and are out of public favor in today’s market-oriented environment Policies To Prevent Climate Change:  Policies To Prevent Climate Change Joint Implementation This is a mechanism that allows a firm in one country to invest in a project that reduces emissions in another country, and to receive credit for those reductions at home. It was proposed by President Clinton on October 22, 1997. An example might involve Norway and Poland. International joint implementation of CO2 emissions reductions would allow a utility in Norway to achieve an emissions reduction by contracting to pay a factory in Poland to install more fuel-efficient furnaces Policies To Prevent Climate Change:  Policies To Prevent Climate Change Tradable Permits ● This is the most market-oriented and efficient approach, which is already used for sulfur dioxide permits in the Chicago Board of Trade ● One argument for tradable permits is the perceived political difficulty of proposing a change in the tax structure ● The most difficult issue in the use of tradable permits is how to allocate them to potential users. For small fuel users tradable permits could cause administrative burdens Policies To Prevent Climate Change:  Policies To Prevent Climate Change Carbon taxes or tradable permits increase the cost of energy and could reduce economic growth. Different models show different impacts. Despite the complexity of the models, only a handful of easily understandable assumptions are important in determining the simulation results. THE PREDICTED IMPACTS ON GDP IN 2020 OF STABILIZING CO2 EMISSIONS AT 1990 LEVELS: THE EFFECT OF CHANGING UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS :  THE PREDICTED IMPACTS ON GDP IN 2020 OF STABILIZING CO2 EMISSIONS AT 1990 LEVELS: THE EFFECT OF CHANGING UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS The International Bank for Environmental Settlements:  The International Bank for Environmental Settlements Win-Win Solutions ● Uncertain though they are, there are costs associated with doing nothing in the face of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. ● The few models that do take expected damages from climate change into account predict that a carbon tax set at an appropriate rate, with revenues recycled efficiently back into the economy, actually improves economic welfare (Nordhaus and Young, 1996; Jorgenson et al., 1995; Nordhaus, 1994, 1993). GDP LOSS (1990-2010) UNDER ALTERNATIVE RECYCLING OPTIONS:  GDP LOSS (1990-2010) UNDER ALTERNATIVE RECYCLING OPTIONS A Win-Win Proposal:  A Win-Win Proposal A market-based approach Global Trading, Clearing and Settlement of Tradable Carbon Permits International Bank for Environmental Settlements (IBES) The International Bank for Environmental Settlements:  The International Bank for Environmental Settlements A market-oriented institution Acts as an intermediary, organizes and regulates global trading of carbon permits and other environmental assets Governance and operating budget decided by the nations of the world The International Bank for Environmental Settlements:  The International Bank for Environmental Settlements The IBES Mandate ● To enhance wealth generation while protecting the environment. It will accomplish this by: ● Providing liquidity and economic return from environmental assets (such as forests) while ensuring judicious use. The International Bank for Environmental Settlements:  The International Bank for Environmental Settlements How IBES Operates Preserving national sovereign rights, IBES will: - Act as an intermediary in multilateral borrowing and lending of permits - Trade options on carbon permits in the future - Clear and settle multinational transactions - Ensure market integrity and efficient price mechanisms (such as SEC, CFTC) The International Bank for Environmental Settlements:  The International Bank for Environmental Settlements How IBES Operates - Once the world’s ceiling of emissions is agreed upon, permits can be allocated following a sliding rule - Starting from today’s usage, the rule moves towards an incentive system allocating more to those who emit less - Auctions can be used to allocate permits efficiently The International Bank for Environmental Settlements:  The International Bank for Environmental Settlements The IBES: A Win-Win Solution The industrial nations have more capital. The developing nations are richer in the environmental account. They emit less carbon and have most of the world’s forests and 80% of its biodiversity. According to the economic models, there are gains to be made from trade while insuring judicious use of environmental assets.

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