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Report 6 social support to the catalan state

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Information about Report 6 social support to the catalan state

Published on March 8, 2014

Author: albert.macia

Source: slideshare.net

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The social support to the Catalan State February 2012

Between 2007-2012, different organizations have performed surveys on the social support to the Catalan State Public Organisations Newspapers Radios and TV Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya 2

Most of them asked directly about the eventual vote in a referendum for the independence of Catalonia. Public organisations Newspapers Radios and TV Source: Viquipèdia,http://ca.wikipedia.org/wiki/Estudis_del_suport_social_a_la_independ%C3%A8ncia_de_Catalunya 3

The survey considers different answers : “Yes”, “No”, “Abstain”, “Blank”, “Don’t know”, “no answer” and “Other” Don’t Know No answer (%) (%) Baròmetre de la Comunicació i la Cultura Ara (Newspaper) El Periódico (Newspaper) Abstain (%) Blank (%) nov-11 41,4 22,9 25,5 1,0 8,3 0,9 - jun-11 42,9 28,2 23,3 0,0 4,4 0,8 0,5 oct-11 45,4 24,7 23,8 0,0 4,6 1,0 0,6 36,5 22,1 27,1 0,0 11,7 0,0 0,0 feb-09 50,3 17,8 24,6 0,0 5,8 1,4 0,0 50,4 17,8 24,6 0,0 5,8 1,4 0,0 abr-11 34,2 30,0 9,6 3,2 nov-10 38,5 42,8 7,2 sep-11 42,0 37,7 7,7 44,9 40,0 oct-07 Universitat Oberta de Catalunya NO (%) abr-07 Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió YES (%) feb-10 Institut de Ciències Polítiques i Socials Release date feb-08 Interviewer/Organizer Other (%) 33,9 43,9 dic-09 39,0 40,6 7,0 2,0 6,1 2,6 23,0 - 0,0 8,8 2,8 0,0 10,7 1,8 12,5 - 11,4 - 7,9 - 15,1 9,8 jun-10 48,1 35,3 ene-12 53,6 32,0 nov-09 35,0 46,0 19,0 - 14,4 mar-10 36,0 44,0 20,0 - may-10 37,0 41,0 22,0 - jul-10 La Vanguardia (Newspaper) 47,0 36,0 7,0 3,0 5,0 - sep-10 40,0 45,0 7,0 3,0 TV3 (TV) mar-10 39,3 47,8 - - 11,0 1,8 - RAC 1 (Radio) sep-10 48,8 41,4 - - 9,7 - - SER (Radio) nov-10 42,3 52,8 - - 2,8 2,1 - Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER 5,0 - 4

Results show different figures depending on how the answers (besides YES and NO) are put together. Results by chronological order (%) Abstain, blank, don’t know, no answer, other 15 19 20 22 39 “No” 13 32 32 40 18 46 41 18 44 10 19 20 22 17 15 15 36 35 36 48 44 41 41 45 45 50 34 37 35 39 39 36 37 Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER 48 47 40 49 14 30 36 32 28 30 50 29 20 53 43 22 “Yes” 5 39 42 34 38 25 23 54 43 42 45 41 5

But in a referendum, results are only YES or NO, so Results by chronological order (%) 26 26 No 47 38 56 57 51 53 55 55 53 62 44 43 53 46 53 56 47 40 35 43 49 58 45 45 47 Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER 57 47 54 47 44 53 60 36 37 65 64 63 47 74 74 Yes 42 53 6

The support to the Catalan Satate is increasing and is already widely for the Catalan State Conclusions 1 All survey show that “YES” is increasing 2 In average, “YES” is increasing by 6% every year 3 If this trend remains, “YES” would be suppoorted by 70% of the people by 2013. 4 All surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater than 50% 5 Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the YES greater than 60% 7

All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show that “YES” is increasing (1/2) Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence of Catalonia No 40 % 35 % Yes 60 % 65 % June 2011 October 2011 Source: Viquipèdia, CEO, UOC, Ara No Yes 47 % No 38% 47 % 53 % Yes 62% November 2010 September 2011 53 % 26% 26% 74% 74% February February February 2008 2009 2010 8

All medias that have performed two (or more) surveys, show that “YES” is increasing (2/2) Trend of the surveys on a referendum for the independence of Catalonia No 57% 55% 53% 43% 45% 47% Nov 2009 Yes March 2010 May 2010 Sourcet: La Vanguardia, El Periódico 43% 57% July 2010 53% 47% Sept 2010 No 47% Yes 53% Apr 2007 56% 51% 44% 49% Oct 2007 Des 2009 42% 37% 58% 63% Jun 2010 Jan 2012 9

The trend line shows a clear social support to the “YES” Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”) Yes 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Trend line, with a level of correlation (R2) of 0,6 20% 10% 0% Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER Note: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results. 10

In average, “Yes” is increasing by 6% every year Trend for the “Yes” versus all the votes ( “yes” and “no”) (simple average) Average increase per year = 6% 4% 10 % 3% 59% 46% 2010 2011 2012 (january) 49% 2009 Yes 63% Source:, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER Note: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results 11

If this trend remains, “Yes” would be supported by 70% of the people by 2013 Extrapolation for 2013 and 2014 75.0% 69.1% 59.1% 46.1% 62.6% 49.4% Yes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (estimation)(estimation) Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER Note: UOC survey not taking into account because of very different final results 12

All surveys between 2001 and 2012 show a support to the “Yes” greater than 50% Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”) 50% Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió 64.8% Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials 64.4% El Periódico 62.6% Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura 53.3% Diari Ara 52.7% Source: Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER 13

Three surveys from 2011 on show a support to the “Yes” greater than 60% Votes for “Yes” versus all votes valid (“Yes” and “No”) Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió 64.8% Inst. de Ciències Polítiques i Socials 64.4% El Periódico 62.6% Baròmetre de la Comun. i la Cultura 53.3% Diari Ara 52.7% Source: Anàlisi del CCN en base a dades de Viquipèdia, ICPS, CEO, UOC, Baròmetre, Ara, La Vanguardia, El Periódico, TV3, RAC1, SER 14

We can conclude that the major social support to the YES is in Catalonia, already a reality    In the last surveys, “Yes” gets more than 50% of the votes and some cases , more than 60% If the trend remains, support to the “Yes” will reach 70% of the votes by early 2013 As in Scotland, an official referendum will increase the support to the “Yes” thanks to the campain We ask at the Catalan Governement to focus on the process to achieve thge Catalan State, via referendum or via early elections. A debate focused on the futur Catalan State is necessary. 15

Només amb un Estat propi Catalunya serà econòmicament viable Empresaris per l’Estat propi www.ccncat.cat info@ccncat.cat

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