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Information about RE020aCurrentEvents

Published on January 28, 2008

Author: Rina


Slide1:  Frank R. Leslie, B. S. E. E., M. S. Space Technology, LS IEEE 1/5/2008, Rev. 1.8 fleslie; (321) 674-7377; Link Bldg. Rm. 104 2.0a Current Energy Events and Status Tidevann Commodity Markets 1/12/06 1/7/2007 1/8/08 NYMEX Crude Oil Futures $64.55/bbl $56.17 $97.09 Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures $9.26/mmBtu $6.183 $7.95 NYMEX Heating Oil Future ?c/gal 156.53 $2.66 NYMEX Gasoline Futures $175.93 ¢/gallon $170.00 $2.49 Local Melbourne FL Hess gasoline $2.32/gallon $2.33 $3.12 Palo Verde Spot Electricity $58.28/MWh $48.43 $62.26 Energy News Headlines as of 1/2008:  Energy News Headlines as of 1/2008 12/07 Congress passes 2007 Energy Act and Pres. Bush signs it. 12/07 Auto Show news of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles coming in 2008-2009 ~12/07 E85 panned and praised. Better solution may be diesel 12/27/07 Assassination of Pakistan’s former prime minister Benizar Bhutto causes spike in crude oil futures 12/28/07 Companies hiring likely “include wind, battery, and solar energy firms and hydrogen” 1/2/08 Oil breaks $100/bbl; falls back during session Nigerian violence, Mexican disruption, price up 60% in 2007 080105 Toyota Highlander Selected Headlines of 2008:  Selected Headlines of 2008 2008 Jan: Oil ranges from mid-$90s to $97 – is all well with “cheap oil”? “U.S. lawmakers unveiled a raft of energy-related bills in the early hours of the 110th Congress aimed at boosting fuel ethanol use, extracting liquid fuels from coal and tightening automobile fuel efficiency rules. “ [Reuters] For some current prices, see 080101 Toyota Highlander 2a.1 Overview of Energy Issues:  2a.1 Overview of Energy Issues Energy decisions are influenced by supply and demand, politics, public interest or protests, availability, fuel source commodity changes, and economics Ten-year construction time of a utility plant requires a reasonably stable market to justify construction loans Uncertainty of the energy commodity markets can destabilize the perception of future energy needs Proposed energy plants are usually met with opposition from potential neighbors (NIMBYs) or distant NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) What’s a “CAVE”? 070111 2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events:  2a.2.1 Recent Energy-Related Events Still . . . : Pres. G.W. Bush still wants to drill for oil in Arctic National Wildlife Reserve (ANWR); environmentalists fighting potential pollution; estimates are that oil could satisfy US needs for six months to twelve years in only 10 years depending upon who estimates; could be held in reserve as part of SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) Opened Bristol Bay, Alaska for drilling 1/10/07 Cape Wind still striving for first plant of Nantucket against much opposition; $20B invested in renewable energy vs. $150B in all global power – Erin Martinot 080101 (within ~1 year) 2a.2.2a The US Energy Policy:  2a.2.2a The US Energy Policy The US Energy Policy of May 2001 set the structure for future energy approaches; updated by Energy Policy Act of 2005 & 2006, also 2007 The Clean Coal Program is being researched to develop very low emissions after stack gas cleaning Renewables now comprise a small part (~ 4%) of US energy sources, even including large hydro Hydro is indirect solar power and is renewable Emphasized because some say it’s not renewable Advanced nuclear or coal plants could supply H2 for “Hydrogen Economy” as an alternate to natural gas (NG) (depleting); 97% H2 comes from NG Pres. Bush says, “America is addicted to oil” 080105 2a.2.2b The US Energy Policy Act of 2007:  2a.2.2b The US Energy Policy Act of 2007 Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) standards increased from 25 mpg to 35 mpg for cars and light trucks by 2020 Renewable electricity standard (RES) that would require 15% of utility power from renewables was removed from the bill by Democrats to prevent certain defeat Some states would have to buy Renewable Energy Certificates if they didn’t reach the 15% Easy for states of Washington and Oregon, impossible for Florida DOE directed to provide $20.5B for nuclear reactors & fuel plus $10B for RE and $8B for clean coal [Florida Today, 12/18/07 Lamp bulbs must be 70% more efficient by 2020 [Paul Davidson, USA Today, 2007] 070105 2a.2.2c Arctic Nat’l Wildlife Refuge (ANWR):  2a.2.2c Arctic Nat’l Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) ANWR has a contentious past Potential oil and gas reserves of ~1 year 10 years from now “Equivalent to 30 years of Saudi Arabia imports” $10.4B reserves located in Northeastern Alaska Coastal plain with some towns; no trees Drilling may interfere with wildlife migration Environmentalists fighting to preserve area for caribou Removed from 2005 Energy Policy Act to avoid blocking passage Added to Defense Dep’t. Budget Bill House passed, but Senate couldn’t get votes to overcome Democratic filibuster 12/21/2005; withdrawn for possible later action 080101 2a.2.3.1 US --- Misc. Details:  2a.2.3.1 US --- Misc. Details FPL merging with Constellation to be Constellation Energy? “Never mind”; cancelled Duke merged with Cinergy for $8.5B Exelon merged with New Jersey's Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. for $16 billion New York State Renewable Portfolio Standard mandates 25% RE by 2013; 19% now large hydro; to be wind, hydro, biomass Mild winter weather lowers fuel oil demand and heating oil future price Seven governors in NE form Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) to cut CO2 10% by 2019 US “green” power increased to 4500 GWh annually 080105 2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets:  2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets The “Grid” moves electric energy from high voltage sources to slightly lower voltage loads Losses occur along transmission lines of ~3 - 5% Wind energy can be put into the grid and sold far away “Wind electrons” don’t travel all the way to the load Just a commodity trade of ~$65/MWh in large blocks Carbon offsets, carbon footprints, CO2 market trading Fly all over the world and pay for offset; may be a scam --- Federal Trade Commission 080105 2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets: 2a.2.3.2 US --- Energy Markets 080109 Prices continue to trend upwards or fluctuate Natural gas is most volatile fuel 2a.3 Worldwide Markets:  2a.3 Worldwide Markets Oil (and sub-products) and natural gas are marketed and shipped on the international commodity market A commodity is somewhat indistinguishable regardless of source (fungible) -- Crude oil futures $96 on 1/1/2008 Branding is sometimes used to attempt to get a better price -- like Florida orange juice vs. California If oil exporter decides not to sell to US, they sell elsewhere, and US buys from there OPEC (~15 countries) decide on total production based on price; allocated based upon reserves; estimated reserves may be kited to get more market share 080105 2a.3.1 Worldwide Markets:  2a.3.1 Worldwide Markets Gasoline is often the same to the tank truck distribution point, where additives color the gasoline with dyes or provide cleaning solvents, but mostly enhance marketing content Volatile fuel prices, but trends higher with time Natural gas price shows winter demand cyclic peaks for Northern states heating Utilities compete with homeowners on price; same with heating oil 080105 2a.2.4.1 Coal :  The US has large coal reserves that are expected to last ~200 years Potential for building 40GW of new plants (for reference, St. Lucie nuclear plant ~1.7GW); killed by Florida Public Service Commission “Clean Coal” with reduced emissions is heavily Federal-subsidized Coal mining kills 1000s of miners each year worldwide 2a.2.4.1 Coal 080105 CO2 declared a pollutant that EPA must regulate; EPA deciding what to do FPL “Clean Coal” plant request rejected by FPSC; four others also rejected Coal-to-liquid transportation fuel is controversial; developed by Germans during World War II; “synfuel” 2a.2.4.2 Petroleum (Crude Oil) :  2a.2.4.2 Petroleum (Crude Oil) Raw crude oil is a commodity traded in the world market The price fluctuates with worldwide demand $57/barrel on 12/21/2005; $62 on 12/4/06; $56 on 1/5/2007; $53.75 on 1/11/07; broke $100 on 1/2/08 Affects stock market and trading psychology Turmoil in foreign countries affects world market; Kenya and Nigeria violence killed many; Foreign companies disliked and attacked #2 fuel oil is widely used for home heating in the Northeast Homeowners compete with large utilities for fuel Mild 2006 winter meant more diesel fuel available & less heating oil produced; same for 2007 Cold weather now would use more and drive prices higher Multitude of products and materials such as gasoline, diesel, plastics feedstocks produced from petroleum TV stock pundit Jim Cramer,, observes that many oil fields now require more drilling of wells just to get the same production, so invest in drilling companies (disclaimer: I did with FSESX, a mutual fund) 080105 2a. Top Exporters:  2a. Top Exporters OPEC controls the prices of its members World market also controls by supply and demand The United States imports much of its foreign oil supply from Venezuela (12 to 15% of US needs) Politics and union strikes dominate Venezuela oil market Pres. Chavez is a socialist and anti-US, pro-Cuba; reelected 12/2006; inaugurated 1/10/07 080101 2a. Iraq:  2a. Iraq $1.3B-$18B oil smuggling was known to UN Security Council but was not stopped according to Paul Volcker [Seattle Post Intelligencer, 12/27/2004]; different from “oil-for-food” (or oil-for-palaces) program that the UN also mishandled Iraq has significant oil reserves (third) yet has a fraction of the World market Greatest price effect is from psychological impact of turmoil on markets Unstable population prevents normal production Oil pipelines are readily sabotaged as they often are exposed above sand, isolated, and easy to bomb 080105 2a. Iraq:  2a. Iraq Iran is developing nuclear power with Russian help Useful for ensuring more oil to export when prices soar Greatest price effect is from psychological impact of turmoil on markets Handy for nuclear weapons, too! They sell on the world market under OPEC membership Wanted to change OPEC valuation to Euros due to inflation of the US dollar but didn’t pass 080101 2a. Afghanistan:  2a. Afghanistan Afghanistan could be a route to bring petroleum pipelines from Turkmenistan in the north to the Arabian Sea for ease of water export Turkmenistan has onshore and Caspian Sea oil fields Turmoil in Afghanistan prevents development; tribal chiefs (politically incorrect: warlords) control remote areas National government tenuous 051230 2a.2.4.3 Natural Gas (NG):  2a.2.4.3 Natural Gas (NG) Clean-burning NG is the utility fuel of choice because of low emissions Supplies are limited in N. America, and importation from overseas by liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers will become necessary Environmentalists are fighting any new LNG terminals, saying that conservation and efficiency are all that is required to reduce demand Natural gas is widely used for home heating in the Midwest Dow executive says 30 to 40 times current LNG terminals are needed to meet future demand LNG pipeline and terminal proposed for Fort Lauderdale FL 10 miles offshore; LNG gasified from seawater heat; reduces hazard that Boston has See the huge LNG tanker attacked by terrorists in the closing moments of the oil intrigue thriller movie “Syriana” (couldn’t happen here since would be stopped just like drug smugglers) 080101 2a. Merchant Power Plants:  2a. Merchant Power Plants Merchant plants sell power to utilities on short notice (phone call), as they can be started and deliver full power in about 20 minutes The Oleander Plant near I-95 and FL 520 went online ~11/2002; 5 aeroderivative turbines (simple-cycle without HRSG); combined-cycle turbines would have been more efficient but would not qualify under PURPA (Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act) law defect. Clean NG plants can burn oil if cheaper that day Power is sold under “Power Purchase Agreements” in blocks of megawatt-hours at about $65 per megawatt-hour 080101 2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Energy:  2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Energy Iran talks resume, stop, resume, stop, resume, etc. Power, or for weapons Some say oil-rich Iran doesn’t need nuclear power, but when oil becomes extremely expensive, say $300/bbl, they will want local power from other means so they can export all the oil Russia may host Iranian fuel processing and reprocessing World nuclear power cleanup means high expenses --- ~$1.7T Yucca Mt. divisive debate continues; Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) is new majority leader and controls what bills go to the floor and which are ignored, so Yucca Mt. may languish indefinitely More nuclear plants proposed for Florida to diversify energy sources, and the alternative is coal (coal rejected by FPSC) No CO2, so being pushed as “Clean Energy” (I like renewables, but massive power is needed from conventional utilities) 080105 2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Uranium Depletion:  2a.2.4.4 Nuclear Uranium Depletion Uranium supplies diminish as more is mined; price will rise Time to peak varies, but may be 30 years 070107 2a. North Korean Nuclear Plants:  2a. North Korean Nuclear Plants The US had been selling oil to North Korea to keep them from starting/continuing their nuclear program (possible weapons) A side effect of nuclear power plants is that the plutonium content of the fuel rods increases with age, and weapons might be made from the “spent fuel” through reprocessing When the US stopped oil sales because of North Korean missile sales, North Korea announced that it must again turn to nuclear power to get energy; US fears weapon development North Korea has now disconnected or blocked IDEA surveillance cameras at their power plants and pulled out of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty They now claim to have reprocessed uranium to get plutonium for nuclear weapons 080101 2a.2.4.5 Hydropower :  2a.2.4.5 Hydropower China building 12.6GW Xiluodu dam; 22.4GW now at Three Gorges Dam Belize completed 7.3MW dam; earlier, build 25MW dam at Macal River; these are <30MW and are “small” hydro Primary power source in WA, OR, & AZ Smaller hydro in many other states; Florida has two plants near Tallahassee Small dams often now being removed Methane and CO2 emissions from decaying organic matter in reservoir? Emissions are worse in tropical heat 080105 2a. Land/Onshore Wind Energy:  2a. Land/Onshore Wind Energy Atlantic City NJ has 4 new turbines at a sewage treatment plant that will supply much of the power there FPL continues to develop and operate the majority (40%) of US windfarms More windfarms erected in the West and Great Plains of US Xcel Energy will add 775MW wind plant to 282MW in CO; sells to SCE & PG&E in CA --- AWEA Canada to install 7000MW by 2013 [Renewable Energy News] 080105 2a. Offshore Wind Energy:  2a. Offshore Wind Energy Wind is strong and steady offshore, but installation is costly in seabed US has 900 GW offshore potential DOE, GE, and Univ Mass form Mass Tech Collaborative LILA project ended due to cost doubling Galveston Offshore Wind to build 7 miles off Galv. Island; 50 wind turbines 150MW in 4 to 7 years Minerals Management Service, US DOI has offshore authority Floating Hywind 3MW turbines 80m above water; 90m diameter GE opened turbine plant near Raleigh NC GE makes blades in Pensacola FL Clipper Windpower developing a 7.5 MW offshore turbine for UK 080105 2a.2.4.7 Solar Energy:  2a.2.4.7 Solar Energy ECD Ovonics opening thin-film plant in China; 25MW/year San Diego buying power from Stirling dishes; 300MW 6000 units in 3 square miles; Powerlight? NYC BIPV rated 210kWp at Stillwell Ave. Station As EU fails to meet Kyoto Protocol, more solar cells will go from US factories to Germany, etc. (For reference, the St. Lucie Nuclear Plant is 2 cells x 850MW) FPL building 300 MW of solar thermal trough plant Netherland company building roadway solar thermal collector to heat adjacent buildings 080105 2a.2.4.8 Geothermal Energy:  2a.2.4.8 Geothermal Energy The Geysers CA (near Calistoga) continues to provide steam turbine power Air conditioning Ground Source Heat Pumps (GSHPs) can extract or reject heat using ground water, significantly increasing the efficiency Common with Florida 68-degree artesian water in 1960s Heated water was dumped 080105 2a. Ocean Current Energy:  2a. Ocean Current Energy New system to be deployed near Portugal Palatka-based Ocean Systems prototyped 10-ft diameter turbine Locations like Gulf Stream are limited Rivers might use similar designs Florida Atlantic University starting a $5M Ocean Center to extract energy from the Gulf Stream with underwater turbines Could fulfill 30% of Florida’s needs 080105 2a. Ocean Wave Energy:  2a. Ocean Wave Energy Pelamis pipeline-type prototype installed US Navy funding 1MW wave farm off Hawaii Linear generator installed in UK in 2005 [like shaker flashlights [not Shaker (;-) ]) SDE 40MW Sri Lanka plant Hydraulic piston motors drive generators Ocean Power Technology 1MW Oahu Hawaii Manchester “Bobber” scale model deployed Finavera’s AquaBuoy 2.0 test buoy sank of Oregon coast; lasted two months [ON&T, Vol. 13, Issue 8, Dec07] 1 MW Irish Wavebob prototype 080105 2a. Ocean Tidal Energy:  2a. Ocean Tidal Energy Tidal power was used in US ~1700 for grain mills Test installations in North Sea near Scotland, Orkney “Total Delay” to be constructed about 2007/2008 Canada’s Bay of Fundy 1.2 MW SeaGen turbine from UK Marine Current Turbine’s 300kW unit shown below left; others right 051230 2a. Ocean Thermal Energy:  2a. Ocean Thermal Energy Ocean Thermal Energy Lab in Hawaii now supplies cooling water for buildings; was in shutdown due to high costs OTEC is too expensive for power production now --- But, wait! There’s more! Legal “earmark” got millions to restore operation Japan is planning an OTEC installation at an atoll 080105 2a.2.4.10 Biomass Energy:  2a.2.4.10 Biomass Energy Brazil sugar production diverted to ethanol Major potential source of Florida renewable energy Protests starting over land use Ethanol pollution claims More energy to produce than can be gotten out of it, or maybe the reverse Direct combustion and cofiring Sugar to ethanol & oils to biodiesel Cellulose converted by enzymes into desired product 080105 2a.2.5.1 International:  2a.2.5.1 International United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Stated global warming exists and much is caused by humans Ice melting and sea level rise is a global warming concern It’s about 1 to 2 mm per year --- wear your boots! Kyoto protocol cuts carbon emissions below 1990 reference year Most countries can’t do it now Bali conference had GHG people flying from all over the world to save energy and cut emissions! UN Montreal COP11 meeting discussed further energy and emission policy US and China declined to join talks for binding limits due to economic constraints European Parliament wants 20 to 25% renewables [RE News] Berlin mandates new buildings have 75% solar power US greenhouse gases (GHG) rose 2% in 2004 [EIA] 080105 2a. Iran:  2a. Iran Iran is the second largest oil producer with a total of 3.5 MM bpd. [Source: AFP, ] Iran has extensive oil fields supplying 10% of World’s oil energy New agreements to supply China with oil Multibillion dollar pipelines are planned to India Iran has agreed to temporary halt to nuclear reprocessing capability (but continues?) China backs them for oil in the UN Security Council Difficult political problem; Russia supplies nuclear materials Striving for independent nuclear capability 080105 2a. China:  2a. China China developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy Three Gorges dam has 26 turbines x 700MW = 18 000 GW and has 175 m height [Renewable Energy World, Nov/Dec 04] Greatly increased Chinese car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they compete on the World market for oil Gains minority stake in Russia’s Yukos oil Tried to buy California SOCAL oil company but blocked by US government 080105 2a. India:  2a. India India developing more hydro, wind, and solar energy Deregulating coal to increase production 1/11/07 Greatly increased car and truck production demands more gasoline and diesel; they, too, compete on World market India’s population growing faster than China and will soon surpass China in population and energy demands 070111 2a. Other:  2a. Other Russian Yukos oil company auctioned off due to tax bill; China gets minority interest that will reduce Western influence 050113 2a. US General Energy Costs:  2a. US General Energy Costs 070111 ON&T, 11/22/05 p.48 2a. Other Areas of Interest :  Europe: Onshore and offshore wind turbines; High fuel taxes Greece: Solar, wind, geothermal, biomass = greatest use of renewable energy in Europe Bolivia: Socialist president elected 12/18/2005 Hydrogen can be electrolyzed for sale at $4 to $15 per kg PA 680MW solar Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) by 2020 2a. Other Areas of Interest 0512221 2a.2.5.2 State of Florida Energy:  2a.2.5.2 State of Florida Energy Florida has “Action Team”, Energy Commission, FEO, D of Ag biofuel program, FDEP, Public Service Commission Gov. Crist held climate change conference in Miami with Gov. Schwarzenegger Florida has extensive biomass that could be used for thermal or electrical generation Sugar cane bagasse for ethanol or chip wood for “cellulosic methanol” Enviros fighting biofuels due to land, emissions, etc. Solar energy in Melbourne is approximately 4.7 equivalent sun hours per day due to rain storms, cloudiness, etc. while Arizona has 6 to 7 Florida is rated “marginal” or Class 2 for wind energy, though possibly offshore Jacksonville, it is much higher PSC 10-year outlook report 1990, 11% NG; 2005, 30%; 2014, 44% 2005, 10% nuclear; new plant in 2015? 080105 2a.3 Past Energy Events:  2a.3 Past Energy Events US Congress battles with Senate over 2007 Energy Act Politics shifting, and changes in renewable and other energy issues continue to be revised Individual states acting together to bypass Federal lagging in energy and GHG action 060113 (older than ~1 year) 2a.4.1 Energy Fiction Book:  2a.4.1 Energy Fiction Book Michael Crichton wrote “State of Fear” about tsunamis and climate change, finishing ~September 2004 Conspirators, media manipulation, killings, romance, adventure, eco-terrorists, shady orchestrators of environmental organizations, billionaire funding Characters in the story provide footnotes as references! Scientific uncertainty is discussed; graphs presented Crichton appendix states his feelings on science & bias Twenty-page bibliography Number 2 on New York Times best-seller list 1/11/2005 Crichton quotes Mark Twain: “There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.” Book attacked by environmentalists 051219 2a.4.2 Energy Movies:  2a.4.2 Energy Movies “Syriana” released in December 2005 Story of oil peak, intrigue, and manipulation in the Middle East; corrupt companies and individuals Starring George Clooney plays CIA agent, and is a Palestinian prime minister look-alike Alexander Siddig (Dr. Bashir of “Star Trek: Deep Space Nine”) plays an ethical good prince of Syriana who gets killed for wanting best interests for his country’s people “China Syndrome” atomic meltdown starring Jane Fonda “Cold Fusion” (it’s still fiction!) 070107 2a Conclusion: Recent Events:  2a Conclusion: Recent Events The primary event has been increasing oil prices, falling dollar, and the effect upon the economy Passage of the 2007 Energy Policy Act GM, Ford, and Chrysler closing some dealerships ass they are losing business to fuel efficient cars and trucks; sales declining Utilities must keep ~15% margin over increasing demand; build more plants Energy plants NG use competes with home heating, and cost is rising with demand; 15% imported; needed LNG importation fought by environmentalists Oil was at $26.01 as of 12/12/2002; $97 on 1/2/08 China and India will soon surpass US in energy emissions as their population rises and demand increases 080105 2a References: Books:  2a References: Books Boyle, Godfrey. Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future, Second Ed. Oxford: Oxford Univ. Press, 452 pp., 2004. Brower, Michael. Cool Energy. Cambridge MA: The MIT Press, 1992. 0-262-02349-0, TJ807.9.U6B76, 333.79’4’0973. Sørensen, Bent. Renewable Energy, Second Edition. San Diego: Academic Press, 2000, 911 pp. ISBN 0-12-656152-4. Crichton, Michael. State of Fear. NY: HarperCollins Publishers, Inc., 603pp., 2004.0-06-621413-0. 041231 2.a References: Websites, other:  2.a References: Websites, other 051230 International Atomic Energy Agency Energy Information Agency NPR radio, CNN news, Fox News Channel, MSNBC News __________________________ Wind Energy elist Wind energy home powersite elist on geothermal energy Site devoted to the decline of energy and effects upon population -- a good units definition site -- quick country guide Olin Engineering Complex 4 kW Solar PV Roof Array:  Olin Engineering Complex 4 kW Solar PV Roof Array 070111 Questions?

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