Rana ppt parallel3 4

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Published on March 16, 2008

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Asian Regionalism: From Bilateralism/Sub-regionalism to Regionalism:  Asian Regionalism: From Bilateralism/Sub-regionalism to Regionalism Pradumna B. Rana Office of Regional Economic Integration Asian Development Bank Key Messages:  Key Messages Asian regionalism is now starting to be Pan-Asian Pan-Asian integration is expected to evolve in a sequenced manner ADB is actively supporting the evolution of Pan-Asian integration Outline:  Outline I. Evolution of Pan-Asian Integration Benefits of Pan-Asian FTA ADB’s South Asia-East Asia Study Institutional Arrangements to Support Pan-Asian Integration I. Proliferation of FTAs in Asia:  I. Proliferation of FTAs in Asia FTAs by Asian countries – from 43 in 2000 to 183 in 2006 Proliferation has been most significant in East Asia - from 1 to 23 But also between South Asia and East Asia – from 0 to 13 FTA Schedule – Sequenced Approach:  FTA Schedule – Sequenced Approach AFTA (excl CLMV) more or less completed AFTA (incl. CLMV) 2010 AEC 2015 INDIA FA 2003 FTA (excl CLMV) 2011 FTA (incl CLMV) 2016 PRC FA 2002 FTA (excl CLMV) 2009 FTA (incl CLMV) 2014 Korea FA 2004 FTA (excl CLMV) 2009 FTA (incl CLMV) 2014 Japan FA 2003 FTA (excl CLMV) 2012 FTA (incl CLMV) 2015 Australia, NZ FA 2004 FTA 2015 Pan-Asian Intra-regional and Inter-regional Trade, 2005 (in Billion USD):  Pan-Asian Intra-regional and Inter-regional Trade, 2005 (in Billion USD) Note: Trade refers to Exports plus Imports. Figures in parentheses refer to share of Pan-Asian trade. Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics CD-Rom, July 2006. Infrastructure Southern Corridor: A. Shipping:  Infrastructure Southern Corridor: A. Shipping Northern Corridor: A. Asian Highway:  Northern Corridor: A. Asian Highway Slide9:  Northern Corridor: B. Trans-Asian Railways Central Corridor: Air Freight Hubs:  Central Corridor: Air Freight Hubs III. Benefits of Pan-Asian FTA: ADB’s GEMAT Model:  III. Benefits of Pan-Asian FTA: ADB’s GEMAT Model Applied general equilibrium model of the global economy with a focus on Asia Extends the LINK model developed at the World Bank 4 Alternative trade scenarios considered: Fragmented scenario: continuation of current wave of bilateralism, where the region is fragmented into several bilateral or small regional FTAs; ASEAN+3 FTA: ASEAN countries, PRC, Japan, and Korea; Asia-wide FTA: ASEAN+3, South Asia, Australia and New Zealand APEC FTA: All APEC member countries GEMAT Findings:  GEMAT Findings Compared to others, fragmented FTA scenario leads to lower welfare for all except ASEAN Asia-wide FTA Impacts: Generates gains of about $46 billion for Asia All Asian sub-regions gain but NE Asia gains the most Impact is negative on other regions APEC FTA sees gains for NE Asia and US but South Asia and EU lose Global liberalization is optimal. An Asia-wide FTA can be a stepping stone Impact of 4 FTA Scenarios:  Impact of 4 FTA Scenarios Real Income (EV, US$ Mn, 2001 price) Source: Plummer and Wignaraja (2006). IV. ADB’s South Asia-East Asia Study Key Findings:  IV. ADB’s South Asia-East Asia Study Key Findings Economic integration between South Asia and East Asia, although increasing since 1990, started to surge after 2000 albeit from a low base mainly due to growing interdependence between India and PRC. However, despite the acceleration, the level of integration between the two regions is low in relative terms. Given the complementarities between the two regions, policy efforts to reduce tariffs, NTBs, and logistics and transaction costs could enhance economic relations between the two regions significantly. Slide15:  Total Trade between South Asia and East Asia (in Billion Dollars) Source: IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics CD-Rom, July 2006. V. Institutional Arrangements to Support Pan-Asian Integration:  V. Institutional Arrangements to Support Pan-Asian Integration SAARC Secretariat ASEAN Secretariat – supports ASEAN, ASEAN+3, East Asia Summits Networking arrangements among research institutes Slide17:  Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Carry out research and analysis on both ASEAN and wider Pan-Asian integration Support intellectual debate and discussion on future integration and build consensus Prepare policy inputs and participate in relevant leaders/ministerial/deputies’ meeting Long Term: be a policy forum similar to the OECD Development Center Thank You.:  Thank You. Asian Development Bank I. Regionalism in Asia – Key Trends:  I. Regionalism in Asia – Key Trends After the Asian financial crisis, regionalism has become a new component in Asia’s outward-oriented development strategy Market-oriented regional integration is now being supported by government policies as well Until recently, we had bilateralism/sub-regionalism, but now Pan-Asian Integration is starting to emerge II. Emergence of Pan-Asian Integration - Proliferation of FTAs in Asia:  II. Emergence of Pan-Asian Integration - Proliferation of FTAs in Asia Need to Consolidate the Asian “Noodle Bowl”:  Need to Consolidate the Asian “Noodle Bowl” Source: ADB ARIC Website

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