R Shant Feb US

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Information about R Shant Feb US

Published on April 13, 2008

Author: Alfanso

Source: authorstream.com

Newton European outlook Newton Pan European equities:  Newton European outlook Newton Pan European equities Raj Shant, Director of Investment Management – European Equities 26 February 2008 European outlook:  European outlook Our global outlook Putting Europe into a global and thematic context Key themes and the positioning of our European portfolios Summary Global outlook summary:  Global outlook summary Last Updated: 25/01/08 IRS Europe in a global & thematic context:  Europe in a global & thematic context European growth has been relatively resilient so far, though likely to slow Strong Euro and no rate cuts from the ECB suggest slower second half growth UK, Spain, Ireland & Denmark are the economies which have had the greatest increases property prices and household indebtedness Other countries, like Germany, France and Italy still have high household savings rates and sound balance sheets Banks in the “hot property” markets are directly vulnerable, banks elsewhere in Europe hurt by “reaching” for growth Europe leads the world in many other areas: Environmental technology, pharmaceuticals and healthcare etc. Portfolio positioning has reflected our cautious message:  Portfolio positioning has reflected our cautious message Last Updated: 25/01/08 IRS We have been particularly concerned about potential risks in the financial system flagged by our Thematic Work… Underweight most (Western) financial and credit-dependent sectors e.g. banks, investment banks, real estate, consumer discretionary … This in turn was likely to lead to slower GDP Growth, suggesting that tactical equity risk should be biased to sectors with stable cash flows Economically insensitive, defensive and ‘growth’ sectors e.g. telecoms, healthcare, staples We have continued to see longer term structural reasons for maintaining equity exposure in the developing world and in selected resource and commodity areas Developing economy exposure, particularly domestic sectors e.g. financials, consumer, telecoms, natural resources Energy, commodities, basic industries and their infrastructure e.g. oil & gas, energy services, capital goods, basic materials, agriculture The return of European large caps:  The return of European large caps Large caps have higher and more stable margins Large caps are cheaper than small caps on all metrics Fund flows favour large caps (share buybacks, sovereign wealth funds, mutual fund flows) 2007 was the first year since 2002 that large caps outperformed small caps Last Updated: New slide 18/01/08 IRS European outlook summary:  European outlook summary We remain wary of debt-dependent business models by sector and by country, much of the rest of the market looks attractive We remain wary of small cap companies, but European large caps offer interesting opportunities Undervalued growth remains in many stocks relating to our themes Some unique investment opportunities available to careful stock pickers Important information:  Important information Newton Capital Management Limited ‘Newton’ refers to the following group of affiliated companies: Newton Investment Management Limited, Newton Capital Management Limited, Newton International Investment Management Limited, Newton Capital Management LLC and Newton Fund Managers (CI) Limited. Assets under management include assets managed by all of these companies except Newton Capital Management LLC, which provides marketing services in the U.S. for Newton Capital Management Limited Except for Newton Capital Management LLC and Newton Capital Management Limited, none of the other Newton companies offer services in the U.S. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the original amount invested. The value of overseas securities will be influenced by fluctuations in exchange rates. If part of the portfolio is invested in sub-investment grade bonds, which typically have a low credit rating and carry a high degree of default risk, then please be aware that this can affect the capital value of your investment. If the portfolio has exposure to hedge funds, gold, private equity and property via publicly quoted transferable securities, then there are additional risks associated with these sectors. The information contained within this document should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security. It should not be assumed that a security has been - or will be - profitable. There is no assurance that a security will remain in the portfolio. The opinions expressed in this presentation are those of Newton Capital Management Limited and should not be construed as investment advice. In addition the information should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Where referencing MSCI Index performance figures: Neither MSCI nor any other party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the MSCI data makes any express or implied warranties or representations with respect to such data (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such data. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall MSCI, any of its affiliates or any third party involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating the data have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages. No further distribution or dissemination of the MSCI data is permitted without MSCI’s express written consent. Newton Capital Management Limited is an investment management firm authorized and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority in the conduct of investment business and is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Registered in England no: 2675952. Tel: (516) 338 3521 web: www.newton.co.uk/us

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