Quick tools for thinking about future impacts of change: 'for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so'

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Information about Quick tools for thinking about future impacts of change: 'for there is...
Business & Mgmt

Published on November 26, 2013

Author: wendyinfutures

Source: slideshare.net

Description

The presentation slides - interspersed with my 'speaking notes' slides - from my keynote panel presentation at ICT 2013 in Vilnius on 7 November 2013. Other panellists described emerging changes; I was asked to help people think about the impacts and implications of those changes, and so offered quick versions of the Three Horizons, Futures Wheels and Manoa Scenario Building, Verge, and Causal Layered Analysis - in 15 minutes.

“…for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures ICT2013 Vilnius Lithuania 7 November 2013

“…for there is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.” • Today, I’ll leave the facts and forecasts to others • I’m here to suggest how to think about the facts and forecasts they’ve offered Wendy Schultz Infinite Futures Vilnius Lithuania 7 November 2013

xkcd

BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES

xkcd BEWARE OF STRAIGHT LINES • Change in living systems – particularly in human systems – is neither simple nor ballistic • Because we are curious, creative, inventive, playful – and contrary, addictive, and perverse

CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK MANAGER Eg, MUSI C, MOVIE S, CDs, D VDs ENTREPRENEUR Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES – transformational disruptor iTunes VISIONARY Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES – paradigm buster Napster

CHANGE EVOLVES IN OVERLAPPING WAVES & TURBULENCE THREE HORIZONS FRAMEWORK • The operating assumptions of today are built on successful responses to past waves of change: Those assumptions create stability, but also resist change • The visionaries and inventors of today challenge those assumptions – but often in ways that are ultimately unworkable: they disrupt paradigms and perspectives • Entrepreneurs build on visions to create the marketable goods and services – they transform capacity – and create new operating assumptions

The Crapularity 3D printing + spam + micropayments = tribbles that you get billed for, as it replicates wildly out of control. 90% of everything is rubbish, and it's all in your spare room – or someone else's spare room, which you're forced to rent through AirBnB. Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf A pile of worthless "crapjects" (neologism coined by @iftf)

The Crapularity 3D printing + spam + micropayments = tribbles that you get billed for, as it replicates wildly out of control. 90% of everything is rubbish, and it's all in your spare room – or someone else's spare room, which you're forced to rent through AirBnB. • You may have invented something ‘insanely great’ • But when you set it free, it will immediately and unpredictably interact with everything else in its context A pile of worthless "crapjects" (neologism coined by @iftf) Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf

MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING

MANOA SCENARIO BUILDING • Try brainstorming the impacts – and the impacts of the impacts – of three different new ideas you’ve heard discussed today • Now ask yourself, ‘what next new thing will the colliding impacts of those three changes generate?’

The Grouponularity In which aggregate consumer purchasing power + pricing algorithms + applied captology, allows your mother (working in concert with everyone else's mother) to reduce the price of 99% of mainstream consumer goods to ~0. The global economy is replaced by something almost equally improbable. Unfortunately, it's comprised entirely of jet-ski adventure days, bread makers, and underwhelming restaurant meals. Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf

The Grouponularity In which aggregate consumer purchasing power + pricing algorithms + applied captology, allows your mother (working in concert with everyone else's mother) to reduce the price of 99% of mainstream consumer goods to ~0. The global economy is replaced by something almost equally improbable. Unfortunately, it's comprised entirely of jet-ski adventure days, bread makers, and underwhelming restaurant meals. Source: Alternatives to the Singularity, online; also at Journal of Futures Studies: “The Singularity is Boring: An Open, Collaborative „Mock-up‟” http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-1/S06.pdf • How will those colliding impacts affect society? • What counter-intuitive results emerge when a change that’s good on a small scale goes global?

BEWARE the LONE WOLF FUTURE http://bethwalshphotography.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/lone-wolf/

BEWARE the LONE WOLF FUTURE • Change is not binary, and the future is not monocular • We don’t face a single future – no matter how compelling new technologies are, or how much momentum they seem to have http://bethwalshphotography.wordpress.com/2013/04/13/lone-wolf/

CHANGES GENERATE MYRIAD POSSIBLE FUTURES

CHANGES GENERATE MYRIAD POSSIBLE FUTURES • Multiple emergent futures are possible given different initial conditions; complex interactions of multiple onrushing changes; and a complex context that includes cultural diversity and all of your individual points of view

BEWARE OF INTENTIONS

BEWARE OF INTENTIONS • So you’ve invented a new technology, or a new service, or a new form of organization • What you designed it to do is not necessarily what your fellow humans will actually do with it.

BEWARE OF INTENTIONS A diagnostic tool becomes an artist’s medium UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND

BEWARE OF INTENTIONS …or, as with so many media, a new avenue for porn UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ABOUND

Verge General Practice Framework for Futures Studies and Foresight WHERE WILL UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ARISE?

Verge General Practice Framework for Futures Studies and Foresight Dr Richard Lum • Artists will use the invention as a new medium • Children will turn it into a game • … and of course, someone somewhere will use it to create porn • Use guides like Verge to explore how your invention will reverberate through all the arenas of human endeavour WHERE WILL UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES ARISE?

BE AWARE OF YOUR LENSES

• How do you see the world? • Who else sees the world that way – what are the embedded values, myths, metaphors of your assumptions? • How do different values, myths, and metaphors drive responses to your inventions / ideas / policy initiatives? BE AWARE OF YOUR LENSES

OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS

Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS

• You can’t just change the buzz • You can’t just invent a new system • You need to engage with, and develop, different worldviews • Re-perceive the world with a different metaphor, a new myth • Ask the next five people you meet for their myths and metaphors for the worlds and fuures we are inventing. OTHERS MAY USE DIFFERENT FILTERS

“The world as we have created it is a process of our thinking. It cannot be changed without changing our thinking.” Albert Einstein “Nothing is so painful to the human mind as great and sudden change.” Mary Shelley Thank you. Wendy Schultz @wendyinfutures

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