Published on July 4, 2016
1. Quantifying the Benefits of Meteorological Services APM Benefits Summit 2016 Claire Ross
2. Contents • Business case for a new supercomputer • Evidence of real life • Success criteria
3. Business Case for a new supercomputer
4. Business Case
5. Generic Benefit Map Customers Decision making process Changes to Prediction Models Improved Generic Prediction Capabilities Business Changes Socio-Economic Beneficiaries Increase in Supercomputer Capacity MET OFFICE UK ECONOMY Improved customer specific services
6. SEB Case Studies Use case 1-5 day forecasts Seasonal Decadal+ Additional value over 5 years Land travel √ ~£75k Airport operations √ ~£300k Flooding √ ~£250k Food chain √ √ ~£100k Renewables √ √ ~£500k Climate change √ ~£900k
7. “Standard” SEB Methodology – cost-loss model Event A happens Event B happens Forecast event A HIT FALSE ALARM Forecast event B MISS HIT Event A happens Event B happens Forecast event A Improved HIT rate Reduced FALSE ALARM rate Forecast event B Reduced MISS rate Improved HIT rate Event A happens Event B happens Action for event A £ correct £ wrong Action for event B £ wrong £ correct Event A happens Event B happens Action for event A £ correct Fewer £ wrong Action for event B Fewer £ wrong £ correct
8. Land Transport – Quarmby Review • severe winters of 2008/09 and 2009/10; • Scaled up to include whole of UK so … • … scaled down meteorological extent; • scaled down for attribution to Met Office HPC
9. Loss of Information Value The perfect forecast Accuracy Accessibility Understanding Willingness to react Ability to react Effectiveness of response Actual Value of Benefit Maximum Potential Value of Benefit
10. Climate Change SEB Methodology – Integrated Assessment Model
11. Evidence of Real Life
12. Generic Benefit Chain with measuring points Customers Socio-Economic Beneficiaries Decision making process Changes to Prediction Models Improved Generic Prediction Capabilities Business Changes GDP Sector Increase in Supercomputer Capacity MET OFFICE UK ECONOMY Improved customer specific services Qualitative descriptions Quantitative verification statistics Quantitative Perception surveys Quantitative Govt statistics Qualitative Benefit Maps
13. Customer Indicators – the challenges • customers may not collect appropriate data; • commercial sensitivities; • data costly to collect and analyse; • external factors influencing indicators;
14. Value Attenuation Model for Climate Information ? Individual benefit cases HCCP Programme Monitoring Reduced uncertainty in reversable climate change Increased understanding of triggers for irreversable events SME Advice Stakeholders Politics International negotiations on GHG emissions Review UK GHG emission targets Review abatement policies Review mitigation policies Review adaption policies CMIP / IPCC UKCPnext Economics Integrated assessment model International economic growth International abatement activity UK abatement activities UK mitigation activities UK adaption activities Climate change cost avoided Stern Review Costs: Reversible ~4% UK GDP; high probability; Irreversible ~4% UK GDP; low probaability Stern Review Costs: ~2% GDP ~3% GDP assuming 1:1.5 CBA Adaption economic opportunities Value Attenuation for Climate Change Research Draft 1/3/2016 Activity specific research tbc
15. Government Statistics – the challenges • need to remove influence of the actual weather; • would include impact of all decision threads; • climate change information influences policy not economic activity;
16. Wheat Yield
17. Re-Run SEB Case Study Models • doesn’t evidence theoretical value chain; • original case studies only considered forecast accuracy improvements not longer lead times; • point-in-time rather than ongoing; • doesn’t reflect any new or changed customer processes
18. What will success look like?
19. Success Criteria • annual report to BIS (and Treasury?) • approval of next Met Office investment business case! • enhancement of Met Office’s General Review http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/library/publications/corporate • … and PWS value-for-money http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/what/pws/value
20. Any Questions?
21. This presentation was delivered at an APM event To find out more about upcoming events please visit our website www.apm.org.uk/events
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