Published on February 4, 2014
Q1 2014 » Putnam Perspectives Capital Markets Outlook Jason R. Vaillancourt, CFA® Co-Head of Global Asset Allocation Investment themes Key takeaways No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. • No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. As the S&P 500 closed 2013 at a record high — after setting more than 20 previous record highs during the past year — many investors pondered whether stock valuations might be getting excessive. Some pundits have gone so far as to utter aloud the dreaded B-word — bubble. • This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. l U.S. small cap EQUITY U.S. large cap l U.S. value l U.S. growth l Europe l Japan l l U.S. government FIXED INCOME Emerging markets l U.S. tax exempt l U.S. investment-grade corporates l U.S. mortgage-backed l U.S. floating-rate bank loans l U.S. high yield l Non-U.S. developed country l Emerging markets l COMMODITIES l CASH l CURRENCY SNAPSHOT Dollar vs. euro: Neutral (from favor euro last quarter) Dollar vs. pound: Neutral Dollar vs. yen: Dollar (from neutral last quarter) PROUD SPONSOR Overweight Small overweight Asset class Neutral Arrows in the table indicate the change from the previous quarter. Underweight Putnam’s outlook Small underweight • Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves. At Putnam our analysis indicates no cause for alarm, but rather, we believe stocks may continue to advance. The current valuation of the market is just about normal relative to long-term history, based on one of our preferred valuation metrics: FCF yield (free cash flow to price). We believe it is also important to recognize that in the broader context of capital markets today, valuation is not the only thing that matters. It certainly matters at extremes, but even if stocks were moderately overvalued, the market could still continue on an upward trajectory for some time, as stocks tend to overshoot in one direction or the other without quickly reverting. One of our chief reasons for optimism comes from our monitoring of pent-up corporate demand. As we described in recent quarters, we have been studying the level of capital investment by businesses, which has lagged considerably during this recovery compared with past cycles. During 2013, we noticed some firming of capital investment, and more recently we have started to see indications of an improving trend in the data, particularly with respect to non-defense ex-aircraft capital goods orders. This uptick is corroborated by the ISM survey’s new-orders component.
Q1 2014 | Capital Markets Outlook Figure 1. Stock valuations are near the average of the past quarter century. The current valuation of the market is just about normal relative to long-term history. — Free cash flow yield — Average yield 1990–2013 12% 8 4 0 1/31/90 1995 2000 2005 2010 It appears businesses have finally gained adequate confidence to sustain an increase in spending, which can help GDP growth accelerate. The situation is similar in other developed markets, particularly in Europe and Japan, and we believe both regions have the capacity to help drive global growth. 12/31/13 Source: Bloomberg. The graph shows valuations of stocks in the S&P 500 as measured by their free cash flow yield. This is the amount of a company’s operating cash flow minus the amount of its capital expenditures, divided by its stock’s price. In Japan, the question continues to be the need for material progress on Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s “Third Arrow” policies targeting structural reform. One of these policies, a large sales tax increase, will take effect in April and threatens to be a new drag on growth. However, we continue to hold out hope for many of Abe’s structural reforms to start to take shape in 2014. We are closely monitoring the multilateral talks surrounding the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade agreement, which is a key barometer of Abe’s ability to accomplish his policy agenda. Abe was elected on a platform of returning Japan to regional prominence, as a counterbalance to China, and internal economic policy is one part of this larger political project. At the same time, we recognize that policy change follows different timelines in Japan than in the United States, and a temporary setback for Abe might not be definitive. While we have a constructive outlook for Europe and Japan, neither one is free of risks. In Europe, the underlying causes of poor credit conditions remain a major question and still require greater clarity before we favor an overweight to the region. Europe is recovering, but the pace is anemic. Signs of insufficient credit demand mean that we cannot yet assign this sluggish pace solely to a lack of credit availability in the private sector. It could also be caused by a tepid pace of new business creation and innovation. Remember that the United States showed similar ambiguity in the early days of the recovery starting in mid 2009. Ultimately, credit availability improved once sufficient evidence emerged that demand was growing. We are now looking for similar evidence for Europe. Our analysis is taking into account one of the important differences between Europe and the United States: European credit flows through banks, while U.S. credit flows primarily through capital markets. Outside of developed-market economies, the marginal tightening (or in Fed-speak, “less accommodation”) of U.S. monetary policy as the Fed begins reducing its purchases of bonds in January will likely weigh on growth in emerging markets, but without dragging down developed markets. Countries with high current account deficits and those reliant on external financing will be hardest hit. 2
PUTNAM I NVESTM ENTS | putnam.com This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. In the current cycle, we have seen only a partial narrowing of valuations and credit spreads, and corporations still sensitive to the pain of the 2008 financial crisis have been somewhat slower to turn to merger and acquisition activity. Also, the current cycle stands out from most predecessors by virtue of its extremely low interest rates and a dearth of nominal yields available to investors around the world. The hunt for yield that has been a hallmark of capital markets for several years is likely to be another factor extending the length of this credit cycle. The current economic recovery started in June 2009 according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Today, more than four years into the recovery, capital market opportunities are shifting, with conditions in credit sectors such as high-yield corporate debt becoming less attractive. However, the current cycle has different characteristics that suggest investors should not abandon credit strategies just yet. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves. First, let’s consider a typical cycle. By this point, the valuations of high-yield credit relative to investmentgrade bonds, which were separated by a wide chasm in 2008 and 2009, have narrowed considerably. At the same time, credit spreads have tightened, leaving credit sectors with a less impressive yield advantage over higher-quality issues. Third, we have begun to see a change in corporate behavior that often emerges to diminish the attractiveness of credit, as companies begin to issue debt in order to finance mergers and acquisitions. Greater debt issuance tends to weaken balance sheets, even as buying pressure supports equity prices. The yield of the 10-year Treasury rose above 3% in the last week of December, in the wake of the Fed’s announcement that it would reduce bond purchases beginning in January. While rising yields are consistent with a strengthening economic recovery, they also prompt the concern among businesses and investors that higher interest expenses could become a drag on continued expansion. We take a relatively positive view of rising rates, which, on their own, should not be a cause for worry. Rather they should be seen as a symptom of better growth prospects. Indeed, longer-term real interest rates — as measured by the difference between bond yields and inflation — have Figure 2. Rising new manufacturing orders indicate stronger corporate demand. It appears businesses have finally gained adequate confidence to sustain an increase in spending, which can help GDP growth accelerate. 70 60 50 40 30 20 1/2005 1/2007 1/2009 1/2011 1/2013 3 1/2014 Source: ISM Manufacturing Report on Business: New Orders Component.
Q1 2014 | Capital Markets Outlook Figure 3. Treasury volatility increased sharply in 2013 and could continue in 2014. We see real risks ahead as the Fed grapples with communication challenges. — MOVE Index of Treasury Option Volatility Index 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 Source: Merrill Options Volatility Index reports the average implied volatility across a wide range of outstanding options on the two-year, five-year, 10-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasury securities (with a total weight of 40 percent on the 10-year Treasury and total weights of 20 percent each on the other maturities). Asset class views been moving higher for almost two years. During the past six months, long-term real rates even moved from negative levels to positive territory, yet economic growth and employment gains have remained steady. Equity U.S. equity A strong fourth quarter and continued economic growth helped U.S. equities extend their rally and deliver their best annual performance since the 1990s. The market advance had a brief pause in October when investors were distracted by the U.S. congressional budget debate and the 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government. While ongoing concerns about Federal Reserve policy weighed on equities somewhat, the market responded favorably in late December when the Fed announced its first modest reduction in asset purchases. Throughout 2013, U.S. equity indexes achieved and surpassed their all-time highs several times, with relatively low volatility. While a continued glacial pace of rate increases does not alarm us, we nevertheless see real risks ahead for the Fed as it grapples with communication challenges. We highlighted last quarter that the Fed is employing forward guidance in an attempt to smoothly exit its extraordinary policy initiatives: A mix of bond purchases and holding short-term rates near 0%. The Fed owns over $4 trillion in fixed-income securities, and how its policy goals influence its actions with this portfolio has major consequences for the market. Investors may come to doubt the Fed’s forward guidance given the central bank’s spotty record in economic forecasting. These doubts could contribute to rate volatility across the yield curve. Investors should be prepared to navigate more interest-rate volatility as the Fed seeks to chart a difficult course ahead. U.S. equity performance in 2013 was top quartile by historic measures, and our outlook is more tempered heading into 2014. At the close of the year, equity valuations were in the middle of their historic range; with stocks at average valuations, our expectation should be for average returns. Also worth noting is the fact that most stocks are trading at a price–earnings ratio of around 15x earnings, meaning that valuations are essentially the same across all market sectors. With considerably less disparity in multiples, we believe U.S. equity investors should pay closer attention to growth potential than to valuation. 4
PUTNAM I NVESTM ENTS | putnam.com Market trends Q4 13 10.22% 29.65% MSCI EAFE (ND) 5.71 22.78 MSCI Emerging Markets (ND) 1.83 -2.60 MSCI Europe (ND) 7.88 25.23 MSCI World (ND) 8.00 26.68 Nasdaq 12.03 36.92 Russell 1000 10.23 33.11 Russell 2000 8.72 38.82 10.25 34.23 9.95 32.69 10.51 32.39 4.60 23.96 Barclays Government Bond -0.69 -2.60 Barclays MBS -0.42 -1.41 0.33 -2.55 -0.14 -2.02 0.02 For example, as European countries gradually reduce the intensity of their fiscal-austerity programs, there will be less fiscal drag. This could result in better GDP growth, improved revenue growth for corporations, and better margins for companies that streamlined their operations through the austere fiscal regimes instituted by European governments. 12 months ended 12/31/13 0.07 Index name (returns in US$) EQUITY INDEXES Dow Jones Industrial Average Russell 3000 Growth Russell 3000 Value S&P 500 Tokyo Topix FIXED INCOME INDEXES Barclays Municipal Bond Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond BofA ML 91-day T-bill CG World Government Bond ex-U.S. -1.24 3.75 8.42 JPMorgan Emerging Markets Global Diversified 1.53 -5.25 JPMorgan Global High Yield 3.64 7.41 S&P LSTA Loan 1.70 5.29 -0.33 Emerging markets, we believe, will continue to grow, but in our view are not likely to be the primary drivers of global growth as 2014 gets under way. Having said that, the multi-year underperformance of emerging markets does open the door to certain investment opportunities. China, for example, is clamping down on corruption and pollution, as well as slowing its headlong multi-year investment in fixed assets. As it shifts its economy in the direction of domestic consumption and the improvement of its citizens’ quality of life, we think China could offer interesting opportunities for investors. -4.56 JPMorgan Developed High Yield In Japan, we think government policy will continue to put downward pressure on the yen; consequently, we think earnings growth will continue to accelerate among Japanese companies. There is also the potential upside from Japanese structural reform, which includes a list of politically challenging items, such as raising the consumption tax, making changes to employment laws, forging a transpacific trade pact, and reforming key domestic industries. Markets are not yet giving credit for significant progress on these issues, so based on the extent to which the administration of Prime Minister Abe delivers on its ambitions, we think markets are likely to respond positively. -1.22 COMMODITIES S&P GSCI Fixed income U.S. fixed income The fourth quarter of 2013 continued to be a favorable environment for taking credit risk and liquidity risk. In addition, strategies oriented toward prepayment risk — such as investments in interest-only collateralized mortgage obligations — generally performed well. The fourth major risk we analyze — interest rates — offered less attractive investment opportunities, in our view, particularly against the backdrop of rising rates. In the years following the 2008 financial crisis, equity correlations rose to record highs. More recently, correlations have declined dramatically and stocks are performing more independently. As share prices deviate from each other, fundamentals begin to matter more. This is an environment, we believe, that demands a more focused, bottom-up approach to portfolio construction. The U.S. macroeconomic picture continued to show signs of health, which contributed to a rising rate environment, but also pointed the way toward a more robust economic recovery in the United States. In particular, the Federal Reserve’s December decision to modestly reduce its bond-buying program offered a degree of confirmation that the economy continues to heal. Bond yields spiked on the news, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury breaching the 3% level by year-end. Non-U.S. equity In our view, international stocks offer broad opportunities to investors at the present time. Earnings recoveries, restructuring opportunities, and emerging-market rebound potential are all brightening the horizon for international stocks. 5
Q1 2014 | Capital Markets Outlook As 2014 begins, we are focused on several key policyrelated and macroeconomic risks. First, the Fed is faced with a delicate balancing act as it seeks to communicate about further reductions in its bond-buying program without destabilizing the financial markets or the U.S. economy. This will bear watching as economic data emerge in the months ahead. The second risk is the potential for wage inflation. As the unemployment rate moves downward, we believe wage inflation could develop earlier than the Fed is anticipating, in which case we could see the central bank reducing its stimulus efforts much earlier than the markets are currently forecasting. isolated credit situations have diverted investor attention from the overall health of the municipal bond market. However, we believe that the underlying fundamentals in the market are quite strong. And while the backdrop in 2014 may create some headwinds, we continue to think that the attractive tax-free yields of municipal bonds remain a valuable part of a diversified portfolio for longterm investors seeking income. In our view, technical factors in the market are the big wild card. Tax-exempt municipal fund outflows for 2013 topped $60 billion (Source: JPMorgan) — the most in 20 years — and have put downward pressure on prices. Although we have seen some value-conscious retail and institutional buyers come into the market to help support prices, we think it is unlikely that we will see volatility subside until outflows and rate volatility diminish. The overall fundamental credit outlook of municipal bonds appears solid. With regard to tax policy, many issues remain unresolved, including the debt ceiling and the potential for broader tax reform — both of which could affect the value of municipal bonds. Lastly, it is possible that economic growth in 2014 could be stronger than forecast, particularly during the second half of the year. If that occurs, real interest rates — prevailing interest rates minus the rate of inflation — which have been negative since 2008, could significantly rise. That said, we don’t believe rates are likely to rise so quickly that the shift will undermine the markets. Non-U.S. fixed income In concert with improving economic data in the United States, Japan’s economy strongly rebounded through the end of 2013, while core European economies performed better than we expected. All told, a supportive global economic backdrop encouraged investors to put capital to work in the credit markets. Commodities We continue to have a negative outlook for commodities. Most of our signals remain unchanged from the beginning of the previous quarter, with momentum, emergingmarket weakness, and the performance of currencies of commodity-exporting countries continuing to contribute to our pessimism. There have been significant outflows from commodity markets over the course of 2013, and this remains an unfavorable environment. Geopolitical risk also remains diminished. While there are increasing tensions in important oil producers Libya and Iraq right now, we continue to feel that the potential softening of sanctions in Iran represents more of a downside risk for oil prices. By contrast, the rise in U.S. rates led many investors to move money out of emerging-market sovereign and corporate debt (EMD), which were perceived to be too risky relative to “safer” developed-market debt securities offering higher-trending yields. Also, many investors moved out of emerging-market equities, which put downward pressure on emerging-market currencies and amplified the decline in EMD. Looking forward, we see potential opportunities in select areas of higher-yielding sovereign debt. While these positions may be perceived as riskier in terms of credit risk, they are generally short-term bonds, implying a lower exposure to the negative effects of rising interest rates. Assuming the market is not caught up in a risk-aversion trend that leads to another widespread sell-off of EMD, we believe this approach to sovereign debt can potentially provide EMD portfolios with a yield advantage. Within the asset class, energy has performed stronger than non-energy commodities and the futures curve is more supportive. Where we have policy-driven investments in commodities, we would continue to favor energy-heavy indices such as the S&P/GSCI Index. But where there is no policy position, we do not favor long positions. As the year progresses, we will continue to evaluate the extent to which the global economy has recovered and potential support from emerging markets. But at least for the first quarter, we do not believe that these factors will support commodity markets. Tax exempt The past quarter, and most of 2013 for that matter, proved to be a volatile time for municipal bonds, and market conditions remain less than robust. Uncertainty about interest rates and the headline risk from a few 6
PUTNAM I NVESTM ENTS | putnam.com Currency The Barclays Government Bond Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. Treasury and government agency bonds. The Barclays Municipal Bond Index is an unmanaged index of long-term fixed-rate investment-grade tax-exempt bonds. The Barclays 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bellwether Index is an unmanaged index of U.S. Treasury bonds with 10 years’ maturity. The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged index used as a general measure of U.S. fixed-income securities. The Barclays U.S. Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Index covers agency mortgage-backed pass-through securities (both fixed-rate and hybrid ARM) issued by Ginnie Mae (GNMA), Fannie Mae (FNMA), and Freddie Mac (FHLMC). The BofA Merrill Lynch U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill Index consists of U.S. Treasury bills maturing in 90 days. The Citigroup Non-U.S. World Government Bond Index is an unmanaged index generally considered to be representative of the world bond market excluding the United States. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 blue-chip stocks whose one binding similarity is their hugeness — each has sales per year that exceed $7 billion. The DJIA has been price-weighted since its inception on May 26, 1896, reflects large-cap companies representative of U.S. industry, and historically has moved in tandem with other major market indexes such as the S&P 500. The JPMorgan Developed High Yield Index is an unmanaged index of high-yield fixed-income securities issued in developed countries. The JPMorgan Emerging Markets Global Diversified Index is composed of U.S. dollar-denominated Brady bonds, eurobonds, traded loans, and local market debt instruments issued by sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities. JP Morgan Global High Yield Index is an unmanaged index of global high-yield fixed-income securities. The MSCI EAFE Index is an unmanaged list of equity securities from Europe and Australasia, with all values expressed in U.S. dollars. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalizationweighted index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the global emerging markets. The MSCI Europe Index is an unmanaged list of equity securities originating in any of 15 European countries, with all values expressed in U.S. dollars. The MSCI World Index is an unmanaged list of securities from developed and emerging markets, with all values expressed in U.S. dollars. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a widely recognized, market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to represent the performance of Nasdaq securities and includes over 3,000 stocks. The Russell 1000 Index is an unmanaged index of the 1,000 largest U.S. companies. The Russell 2000 Index is an unmanaged list of common stocks that is frequently used as a general performance measure of U.S. stocks of small and/or midsize companies. Russell 3000 Growth Index is an unmanaged index of those companies in the broadmarket Russell 3000 Index chosen for their growth orientation. Russell 3000 Value Index is an unmanaged index of those companies in the broadmarket Russell 3000 Index chosen for their value orientation. The S&P GSCI is a composite index of commodity sector returns that represents a broadly diversified, unleveraged, long-only position in commodity futures. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (LLI) is an unmanaged index of U.S. leveraged loans. The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged list of common stocks that is frequently used as a general measure of U.S. stock market performance. The Tokyo Stock Exchange Index (TOPIX) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of over 1,100 stocks traded in the Japanese market. You cannot invest directly in an index. We favor the U.S. dollar. Labor market data has been consistent with the Fed’s intention to taper asset purchases beginning in January. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) under Janet Yellen has altered its forward guidance to be more qualitative to help ensure that front-end rates remain anchored. However, the front end is likely to come under pressure as the U.S. economy continues to outperform and the market begins to challenge the FOMC forward guidance These trends should be supportive of the U.S. dollar. We modestly favor the euro as the surprise rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) was not the beginning of a more aggressive policy, but rather a statement that the council has done enough given its expectations for growth and inflation. The risk of the euro weakening remains somewhat limited as the eurozone is set to run a current account surplus exceeding 2% of GDP this year, eurozone banks continue to shed and repatriate overseas assets, and economic data slowly improve. We have a neutral view of the British pound sterling. U.K. growth data remain strong and are challenging the forward guidance as laid out by the Bank of England, but the pound has been the strongest currency over the past several months, reflecting this strength. The pound should be supported over the medium term, but positioning could be a challenge in the short term. The Japanese yen remains vulnerable to weakening. Over the medium term, it is expected that the Bank of Japan will have to do much more than currently slated and should provide further impetus for the dollar to rally versus the yen. The Fed’s tapering expectations continue to have an impact on the Australian dollar and other current account deficit countries that had been supported by safe-haven fixed-income flows. This should keep the Australian dollar biased to the downside. We also favor an underweight to the Canadian dollar. As Canada suffers from a widening in its current account and balance of payments, the Canadian dollar will likely continue to lose ground against the U.S. dollar over the medium term. In emerging markets, the environment has changed substantially and our views are much more neutral. Those currencies with weak external balances, such as those of Indonesia, India, Turkey, and South Africa, remain vulnerable. 7
NOTES This material is provided for limited purposes. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument, or any Putnam product or strategy. References to specific asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations or investment advice. The opinions expressed in this article represent the current, good-faith views of the author(s) at the time of publication. The views are provided for informational purposes only and are subject to change. This material does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status, or investment horizon. Investors should consult a financial advisor for advice suited to their individual financial needs. Putnam Investments cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any statements or data contained in the article. Predictions, opinions, and other information contained in this article are subject to change. Any forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Putnam assumes no duty to update them. Forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those anticipated. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. As with any investment, there is a potential for profit as well as the possibility of loss. This presentation or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold, or redistributed in whole or in part without the express written consent of Putnam Investments. The information provided relates to Putnam Investments and its affiliates, which include The Putnam Advisory Company, LLC and Putnam Investments Limited®. Prepared for use in Canada by Putnam Investments Inc. [Investissements Putnam Inc.] (o/a Putnam Management in Manitoba). Where permitted, advisory services are provided in Canada by Putnam Investments Inc. [Investissements Putnam Inc.] (o/a Putnam Management in Manitoba) and its affiliate, The Putnam Advisory Company, LLC. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss. It is possible to lose money in a diversified portfolio. Consider these risks before investing: International investing involves certain risks, such as currency fluctuations, economic instability, and political developments. Investments in small and/or midsize companies increase the risk of greater price fluctuations. Bond investments are subject to interest-rate risk, which means the prices of the fund’s bond investments are likely to fall if interest rates rise. Bond investments also are subject to credit risk, which is the risk that the issuer of the bond may default on payment of interest or principal. Interest-rate risk is generally greater for longer-term bonds, and credit risk is generally greater for below-investment-grade bonds, which may be considered speculative. Unlike bonds, funds that invest in bonds have ongoing fees and expenses. Lower-rated bonds may offer higher yields in return for more risk. Funds that invest in government securities are not guaranteed. Mortgage-backed securities are subject to prepayment risk. Commodities involve the risks of changes in market, political, regulatory, and natural conditions. Scan code or visit putnam.com/outlook for more insight on the global investment landscape. Visit putnam.com for news and information, and our Perspectives blog for in-depth analysis on a range of investment topics. If you are a U.S. retail investor, please request a prospectus, or a summary prospectus if available, from your financial representative or by calling Putnam at 1-800-225-1581. The prospectus includes investment objectives, risks, fees, expenses, and other information that you should read and consider carefully before investing. In the United States, mutual funds are distributed by Putnam Retail Management. putnam.com CM0100 283557 1/14
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