Published on January 30, 2016
1. Bulwarks, Agility & Foresight PSP 2016 Keynote Joseph J. Esposito Partner, STM Advisers LLC Washington, D.C. | February 3, 2016 1
2. Three Hypothetical Organizations 1. For-profit publisher; revenue=$100 million 2. Not-for-profit society publisher; revenue=$25 million 3. Publishing start-up 2
3. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT Commercial Publisher ? ? ? Society Publisher ? ? ? Publishing Start-up ? ? ? 3
5. Publishers Under Siege (the short list) Open access movement The militant librarian Assault on copyright Political communitarians Tech companies Nasty PR on pricing (esp. for textbooks) Hostile media environment Funding agency interference And so on, ad infinitum 5
6. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT Commercial Publisher ? ? Society Publisher ? ? Publishing Start-up ? ? ? 6 YES ?
7. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT Commercial Publisher ? ? Society Publisher ? ? Publishing Start-up ? ? ? 7 YES YES
8. The Bulwark of Capitulation 8
9. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT Commercial Publisher YES ? ? Society Publisher YES ? ? Publishing Start-up 9 YESNO ASSERTED
10. “Agile” as Metaphor 10
11. “Agility” is inversely related to foresight. 11
12. Start-ups . . . May be eating everybody’s lunch Innovate faster than established companies May have little room to grow Can’t use a bulwark strategy No assets to defend! 12
13. Bulwarks . . . Are an essential component of an established company’s strategy Tend to monopolize the bandwidth of senior executives Look to the past, not to the future NB: Investors value future earnings Must be complemented by vigorous future-oriented strategies, that is, by foresight 13
14. BULWARKS AGILITY FORESIGHT Commercial Publisher YES REACTIVE ESSENTIAL Society Publisher YES DIFFICULT ESSENTIAL Publishing Start-up NO YES ASSERTED 14
15. 15 The Black Art of Foresight “The Fortune Teller,” Georges de la Tour. c. 1630
16. Developing Business Foresight Seek multiple inputs Outsiders The rank and file Place lots of small bets Study other segments of the publishing industry for new ideas Put your best people on the new activities Be on the lookout for entrants from left field 16
17. What’s on My Own Screen Now? 17
18. 18 A Few Things to Watch For Data science Network model Implications of large end-user database Mobile-based control panel Potential for disruption in institutional ebook market
19. Contact Information Joseph J. Esposito Partner, STM Advisers LLC http://stmadvisers.com email@example.com @josephjesposito 19
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