Project risk and value in supply chain management

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Information about Project risk and value in supply chain management
Business & Mgmt

Published on March 3, 2014

Author: assocpm

Source: slideshare.net

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This presentation was delivered by Ian Murdoch at the joint APM / RICS conference on project leadership held in February 2014.

11/02/2014 RICS & APM Project Leadership Conference 25 February 2014 Parliament Square, London Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management Supply-chain engagement: • Reducing risk • Improving value • Improving performance • Relationship Management to deliver efficiency and reduce process waste Ian J Murdoch 2 1

11/02/2014 Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management CONTENTS: 1. SOME THEORY 2. SOME ASPIRATIONS – BEST PRACTICE 3. SOME EMPIRICAL RESEARCH (or where we start from) Ian J Murdoch 3 Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management SOME THEORY! Ian J Murdoch 4 2

11/02/2014 Supply Chain Management - Processes Lysons & Farrington, Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, 7th Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2005 Customer relationship management Returns management Product development & commercialisation Customer service management Supply Chain Management – Eight Processes Supplier relationship management Manufacturing flow management Demand management Order fulfillment 5 Ten ways of Managing Supply Chain Risk Lysons & Farrington, Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, 7th Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2005 1 2 Diversification Stockpiling 3 Redundancy 4 Insurance 5 Supplier selection 6 Supplier development 7 Contractual obligation 8 Collaborative initiatives 9 Rationalisation of the product range 10 Localised sourcing 6 3

11/02/2014 Ten Major Cost Drivers – Value Chains Lysons & Farrington, Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, 7th Edition, Pearson Education Limited 2005 1 Economies or diseconomies of scale 2 Learning and spillovers 3 Capacity utilisation 4 Linkages among activities 5 Inter-relationships 6 Degree of vertical integration 7 Timing of market entry 8 Firms policy of cost or differentiation 9 Geographic location 10 Institutional factors 7 Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management SOME ASPIRATIONS Ian J Murdoch 8 4

11/02/2014 Our joint commitments HM Government (2013), Construction 2025, Industrial Strategy: government and industry in partnership • ….ensure that capability and capacity issues in construction are addressed in a strategic manner. • Drive procurement efficiency….led by the Government Construction Board and the IUK Client Group. • ….construction supply chains to thrive by addressing access to finance and payment practices. • ….academic and research communities to …research, (develop) and demonstrate to the wider industry ….to remove barriers to innovation. 9 NSCC publishes guidelines For members http://www.nscc.org.uk/support/business.html 10 5

11/02/2014 Benefits: •Financial •Design and Planning contribution •Better problem solving •Fairer share of risk •Repeat business •Better payment terms 11 NSCC is a member of the Strategic Forum for Construction http://www.strategicforum.org.uk/sfctoolkit2/home/home.html 12 6

11/02/2014 13 Best Practice: Purchase and Supplier Engineering (PSE) …London 2012 …one of the largest (£9bn) and most successful construction projects ever undertaken in the UK… PSE informs procurement and delivery…managed risks and realised value… Measuring change involving “engagement and interaction” • Mead, J.M. and Gruneberg, S., (2013), Programme Procurement in Construction, Learning from London 2012, Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester. 7

11/02/2014 Purchase and Supplier Engineering (PSE) • Mead, J.M. and Gruneberg, S., (2013), Programme Procurement in Construction, Learning from London 2012, Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester. Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management SOME EMPIRICAL RESEARCH (or where we start from) Ian J Murdoch 16 8

11/02/2014 Industry Performance As part of a relatively under-capitalised industry, construction firms are highly dependent upon sustained access to trade credit in order to finance their levels of output and turnover. Limits on firms’ ability to access the necessary trade credit may limit their ability to compete for projects, and force firms to decline growth opportunities. • Department for Business, Innovation and Skills BIS RESEARCH PAPER NUMBER 118, TRADE CREDIT IN THE UK CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY: An Empirical Analysis of Construction Contractor Financial Positioning and Performance, JULY 2013, Graham Ive and Alex Murray, 17 Supplier selection Turnover and Contract Limit A contract limit …‘safe’ to award to a supplier, based on a simple comparison of the annual contract value to the annual (or average annual) turnover. …..apply a maximum threshold of 25% (annual contract value to turnover). The concept of contract limit could be used as a guide in terms of: • financial strength – can the candidate cope financially with this size of contract? • capacity – does the candidate have the resource to carry out the work? • dependency issue – will the candidate become over-dependent on this contract? OGC, (2008) Supplier Financial Appraisal Guidance, London, Office of Government Commerce. 18 9

11/02/2014 NSCC State of Trade Survey The Report: Go to www.nscc.org.uk/news.asp Then Scroll down to Consultations and Reports 19 What is the NSCC? The National Specialist Contractors Council (NSCC) NSCC brings together 29 specialist trade organisations representing businesses engaged in the planning, design, construction, refurbishment, and maintenance of the built environment in both the commercial and domestic sectors. It is the authoritative voice of Specialist Contractors in the UK. Go visit www.nscc.org.uk 20 10

11/02/2014 Who is the NSCC? Members include:- AIS Association of Interior Specialists CFA Contract Flooring Association CONSTRUCT Concrete Structures Group FASET Fall Arrest Safety Equipment Training FPS Federation of Piling Specialists GGF Glass and Glazing Federation INCA Insulated Render and Cladding Association MAC Mastic Asphalt Council NFRC The National Federation of Roofing Contractors Ltd PDA Painting and Decorating Association RIDBA Rural and Industrial Design and Building Association TTA The Tile Association 21 The State of Trade Survey is carried out quarterly and has been compiled since 1994. Set up to provide evidence following the Latham Report (Latham 1994) on the state of the industry It has been used for briefings, policy development and to assist in campaigns to promote the interests of the members. Latest input is briefing to the Construction Minister on • • • Retentions Fair Payment Campaign Supply Chain Integration for Specialists 22 11

11/02/2014 06 February 2014 Specialist Contractors Unite Behind NSCC on Late Payment NSCC submitted a comprehensive response to the Government’s discussion paper, Building a Responsible Payment Culture, with the full support of its members. NSCC Chief Executive Suzannah Nichol said: “As long as late payment is socially acceptable and public sector contracts are awarded to companies known for poor payment, then this will remain a huge ongoing problem for the industry. METHODOLOGY 1 • Since 2007 the survey has been conducted on-line, the survey currently consists of approximately 500 member firms. • It is not based on a random selection or a systematic stratified sample, but distributed throughout affiliated trade associations. • No interviews but firms are invited to pass comments in open ended questions • It is not possible to eliminate bias, but as same method used each quarter, any errors would be systemic. • Key factors therefore are the changes from Quarter to Quarter, Year to Year. • The annual response rate is currently 20% - 25% • The ‘balance’ indicator offering the best single measure of a trend. • Members insistence on simple report presentation. 24 12

11/02/2014 Enquiries and Orders 2013 Q4 25 Orders 2013 Q4 26 13

11/02/2014 Capacity and Business Planning 1 27 Capacity and Business Planning 2 28 14

11/02/2014 Prices and Margins 29 Payment Practices 30 15

11/02/2014 However, lets look at longer trends – • Now we have 20 years of data. 31 Enquiries 1994 Q1 – 2013 Q4 NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 1994Q1 - 2013Q4: ENQUIRIES 80 60 53 49 40 20 41 37 23 20 20 18 16 0 0 -8 -20 16 16 9 -2 -7 -20 38 26 23 12 11 -3 % 51 43 39 36 36 17 11 9 0 56 48 39 35 33 30 29 26 18 11 16 5 -2-40 -2 -5 30 28 25 17 14 11 5 3 1 -3 0 10 0 -2 2 -11 -11 -14 -20 -24 -29 -34 17 11 24 -5 -11 -32 -40 -54 -57 -60 -80 Q1 2 3 4 Q2 3 4 Q2 3 4 Q2 3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 Q Q Q Q1 Q Q Q1 Q Q Q1 Q Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.BALANCE (reporting a rise) Recovery not yet back to pre-2007/8? 32 16

11/02/2014 Orders 1994 Q1 – 2013 Q4 NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY:1994Q1 -2013Q4: ORDERS 80 60 40 58 55 51 58 43 42 35 38 48 44 41 26 20 % 0 12 11 20 18 14 10 9 37 36 22 21 17 27 25 24 27 21 21 11 9 20 2 0 -2 42 39 29 28 23 20 9 10 43 41 31 27 5 0 3 2 -5-4 -3 -3-6 -9 -16 2 -6 -15 -17 -20 24 17 10 12 10 2 -14 -11 -25 -26 -34 -39 -40 -46 -51 -56 -58 -60 -80 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q3 Q Q2 Q 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.BALANCE (reporting an increase of orders) Recovery not yet in line with enquiries? 33 Skilled Labour Recruitment 1994 Q1 – 2013 Q4 NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 1994Q1 - 2013 Q4: SKILLED LABOUR RECRUITMENT 80 60 63 61 52 40 38 34 % 11 0 51 40 34 36 23 27 27 20 60 50 49 19 16 14 12 6 33 36 30 13 38 38 44 41 38 37 32 31 32 33 31 29 29 28 28 26 23 23 21 21 19 18 16 17 16 15 14 12 13 9 7 19 18 -4 -20 6 5 -7 -11 -13 -14 -16 0 -4-3-2 109 1 -23 -23 -26 -31 -34 -36 -40 -48 -60 Q1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q QQ Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q QQ Q Q 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.BALANCE (more difficulty) Compare post-1995 with post-2008 34 17

11/02/2014 Capacity and Business Planning: Half of all respondents expect a rise next quarter – best since 2007 Q2 NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 1994Q1- 2013 Q4: ANTICIPATED WORKLOAD Next Quarter 80 63 61 57 59 51 49 60 56 51 46 58 51 40 20 53 49 49 51 50 48 43 38 37 33 32 33 27 23 45 44 41 43 42 41 46 46 41 40 45 43 35 33 33 31 28 31 27 26 28 27 24 23 17 21 19 17 42 35 36 39 19 18 17 18 16 12 % 8 0 0 0 -2 -3 8 7 4 -8 -8 -3 -10 -16 -20 -21 -29 -33 -40 -47 -60 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3.BALANCE (expecting more work) Capacity and Business Planning: 60% of respondents expect a rise in workload in 12 months – a survey high! NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 2010Q1 - 2013Q4: ANTICIPATED WORKLOAD in 12 months 60 51 50 46 45 43 40 37 32 % 31 30 24 20 17 17 16 11 10 7 8 6 2 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2012 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2013 3.BALANCE (expecting more work) 18

11/02/2014 Capacity and Business Planning: Capacity utilisation (esp. >90%) 1994 Q1 – 2013 Q3. NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 1994Q1 - 2013Q4: CAPACITY LEVELS (working at > 90%) 90 80 76 75 70 70 69 69 66 53 53 49 45 46 46 43 40 % 40 39 39 40 37 34 30 27 27 56 52 67 64 61 60 59 59 60 60 57 58 56 57 56 55 55 54 53 51 49 48 47 44 40 64 61 59 58 60 59 50 68 64 60 51 51 40 35 34 29 27 45 40 38 29 26 28 21 22 20 16 20 35 34 34 34 30 30 28 27 20 10 0 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 Q1 2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q4 Q Q3 Q Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1. >90% 37 Tender Prices: 1994 Q1 – 2013 Q3 NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 1994 Q1 - 2013 Q3: TENDER PRICES 60 40 5 -5 % -6 -9 -10 26 22 18 16 18 16 16 8 4 -6 -7 -12 -17 16 15 10 9 5 0 -15 -17 33 30 25 26 19 17 14 0 -20 39 38 28 26 20 14 16 16 13 9 5 20 -5 -5 2 13 5 16 0 -5 -9 -15 -11 -20 -24 -26 -26 -32 -31 -31 -33 -36 -37 -37 -36 -39 -40 -26 -29 -45 -54 -58 -60 -64 -67 -69 -71 -74 -75 -80 -100 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 Q4 Q2 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q3 Q1 Q3 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090092010 2 2011 2012 2013 3.BALANCE (reporting an increase) 38 19

11/02/2014 Payment Practices: 1994 Q1 – 2013 Q4 A return to ‘normal’ behaviour patterns for 60-90 days? NSCC STATE OF TRADE SURVEY: 1994Q1 - 2013 Q4: INTERIM PAYMENTS PERIOD 100 90 80 88 86 83 83 81 80 81 79 79 79 79 78 77 76 75 76 78 75 75 74 75 76 74 73 73 72 71 71 71 69 68 64 63 63 59 57 76 74 72 73 70 70 70 68 66 65 63 62 60 60 57 57 55 53 50 48 70 60 50 % 72 71 65 57 52 51 42 40 82 82 81 81 79 79 79 77 77 77 78 76 75 73 73 74 72 71 72 42 37 35 33 33 30 30 25 24 25 23 24 21 22 22 21 20 29 25 23 21 20 19 18 24 23 23 22 21 23 21 20 22 21 20 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 15 17 15 15 15 16 15 14 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 88 889 8 8 7 7 7 5 7 6 6667 75574 6 6 575 56 66 4 648 47 58 554 44 45 444 5 4 4 4 4 3242 324 22 3 2 2 2 33333 224 2 2 22323 32 2 3 22 2112 213313333 31133 0 0000 1 0 00000000 000000000 001 0 0 0 0 00 0 Q1 2 3 Q1 2 Q4 Q2 3 Q1 2 Q4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 3 Q1 Q3 4 Q2 Q4 1 Q3 4 Q Q Q4 Q Q3 Q1 Q Q4 Q Q3 Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q Q4 Q2 Q Q1 Q3 Q Q2 Q 20 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 AVERAGE TIME FOR PAYMENT 1. <30 DAYS 2. 30-60 DAYS 3. 60-90 DAYS 4. >90DAYS 39 Procurement • Specialist Contractors report 78% of contracts were obtained by tender - an increasing percentage of contracts being procured by methods other than tender. Retentions • 45% of Specialist Contractors report recovering all retentions. Of the remaining respondents, an average of 17% of outstanding retentions are written off as bad debts. • 61% of public sector contracts secured Nil retention. • 61% of public sector contracts secured payment in 30 days. 40 20

11/02/2014 Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management CONCLUSION SO HOW DO WE GET FROM HERE TO THERE? (or where we start from) Ian J Murdoch 41 Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management • • • • • • • • Market intelligence Purchaser/early supplier engagement/interaction Supplier relationship management Contracting strategy Bidder tracking Supply chain mapping Building a responsible payment culture Performance measurement Ian J Murdoch 42 21

11/02/2014 Project Risk and Value in Supply Chain Management References: • Lysons, K & Farrington, B., (2005),Purchasing and Supply Chain Management, 7th Edition, Pearson Education Limited. • Mead, J.M. and Gruneberg, S., (2013), Programme Procurement in Construction, Learning from London 2012, Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester. • Great Britain, OGC, (2008) Supplier Financial Appraisal Guidance, London, Office of Government Commerce. • Great Britain, HM Government (2013), Construction 2025, Industrial Strategy: government and industry in partnership. • Great Britain, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills (2013), BIS Research Paper Number 118, Trade Credit In The UK Construction Industry: An Empirical Analysis of Construction Contractor Financial Positioning and Performance. • National Specialist Contractors Council (2013), State of Trade Survey Report (on-line): Available at http://www.nscc.org.uk/documents/Q4Report.pdf 43 22

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