Prof Geoff Hammond - Low Carbon Business Breakfast - Innovation Centre, Bath 18 March 2014

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Published on March 18, 2014

Author: LCSW

Source: slideshare.net

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Looking beyond traditional approaches, Professor Hammond outlines three alternative approaches to model the potential for a renewable energy future.

Low Carbon Business Breakfast: Putting The ‘New Into Renewables, Innovation Centre, Bath, Tuesday 18th March 2014. LOW CARBON ENERGY TRANSITIONS: Advances in Developing and Adopting Viable Renewable Energy Technologies Geoffrey P. Hammond Professor of Mechanical Engineering and Founder Director of I•SEE, University of Bath, Bath. BA2 7AY. [Email: ensgph@bath.ac.uk] LCSW, Bath

CONTENTS  World Energy Transitions: 1850-2050  Energy and the Environment: the challenge of climate change  Drivers for Change in the UK Energy Sector  UK Transition Pathways to a Low Carbon Future  Micro-generators for Decentralised Heat and Power Supply ⇒ integrated or ‘whole systems’ appraisal ⇒ barriers to take-up, including economics  Concluding Remarks LCSW, Bath

WORLD ENERGY TRANSITONS – Shell ‘Dynamics as Usual’ Scenario LCSW, BathSource: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)

ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT  Energy sources of various kinds heat and power human development  Unwanted ‘side’ effects ⇒ acid rain / global warming  Need for sustainable development ⇒ sustainable energy strategy (energy efficiency, renewables and micro-generators, and possibly nuclear power)  Conflict with energy market liberalisation LCSW, Bath

DRIVERS FOR CHANGE IN THE UK ENERGY SECTOR  GLOBAL WARMING  Much more stringent global ‘greenhouse gas’ budgets/targets likely to come into play, e.g., to meet the 2008 Climate Change Act that commits the UK Government to reducing CO2 emissions by 80% over 1990 levels by 2050  But fuel poverty and competitiveness remain constraints  FOSSIL FUEL SUPPLIES  More use of natural gas in the UK now worsens diversity  Depletion of North Sea oil and natural gas supplies  Natural gas/oil imports: perhaps 2/3 of UK gas imported by 2020. Shale gas might have a role after that.  NUCLEAR POWER DECLINE, due to the decommissioning of old reactors  ENERGY SECURITY WILL BECOME MORE CHALLENGING Source: updated from the PIU Energy Review Team (Cabinet Office, 2001) LCSW, Bath

MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON TRANSITION PATHWAYS LCSW, BathSource: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

 Market Rules (MR)  Energy companies focus on large-scale technologies: nuclear power, offshore wind & capture-ready coal  Minimal interference in market arrangements  Central Co-ordination (CC)  Greater direct government involvement in governance of energy systems, e.g., issuing tenders for tranches of low-carbon generation  Focus on centralized generation technologies  Thousand Flowers (TF)  More local, bottom-up diversity of solutions  Local leadership in decentralized options LCSW, Bath UK CORE TRANSITION PATHWAYS

LCSW, UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LCSW, ‘MARKET RULES’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050 CARBON EMISSIONS . Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010) UK Electricity Carbon Emissions, 2050 - per kWh Gas CCS 11% Nuclear 1% CHP 27% Wind (offshore) 2% Coal CCS 56% Pumped Storage 1% Wind (onshore) 1%

LCSW, UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION MIX - ‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LCSW, ‘THOUSAND FLOWERS’ TRANSITION PATHWAY – 2050 CARBON EMISSIONS Source: Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010)

LCSW, Bath UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS - POWER SECTOR TOTAL CARBON EMISSIONS Source: Hammond & O’Grady (Proc. Instn Civil. Engrs: Energy, 2014)

LCSW, Bath UK TRANSITION PATHWAYS – LIFE-CYCLE POLLUTANT EMISSIONS (Single Score LCA) Source: Hammond et al. (Energy Policy, 2013)

ACTING LOCALLY/THINKING GLOBALLY - The Climate Change/Energy Hierarchy LCSW, Bath  Encourage sustainable lifestyles ________________________  Use less energy  Use renewable energy to provide energy services  Supply energy efficiently e.g., use combined heat and power (CHP) and community heating ________________________  Offset residual carbon dioxide emissions that cannot be avoided by other means Source: ESD, Corsham

ENERGY LOSSES FROM THE CENTRALISED POWER NETWORK LCSW, BathSource: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 1  DECENTRALISED FORMS OF ELECTRICITY AND HEAT GENERATION – FACILITATED BY ‘SMART’ GRIDS AND NETWORKS ⇒ Large industrial CHP plants ⇒ Onshore and offshore wind ‘farms’ ⇒ Widespread use of bioenergy plants and biofuels (e.g., biodiesel or bioethanol) ⇒ Micro-generation (kW scale): * embedded or standalone solar PV * small-scale wind generators * domestic-scale CHP plants * heat pumps – from ground, air or water sourcesLCSW, Bath

DISTRIBUTED ENERGY GENERATION - 2 LCSW, Bath Source: Hammond & Waldron (Proc. IMechE Part A: JPE, 2008)

DELIVERED ENERGY TO MEET END-USES IN THE UK RESIDENTAIL SECTOR LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Space heating Water heating Cooking Lighting and Appliances PJ Electricity Gas Solid fuel Oil

MICRO-GENERATION  Micro-generation could be the most radical form of energy system decentralisation - ⇒ Many technological ‘evangelists’ have focused on solar thermal, solar PV, small-scale wind turbines, heat pumps, and micro-CHP plants. ⇒ They would blur the distinction between energy supply and demand. ⇒ Consumers may become more active participants in energy system development and operation. Source: after Dr Jim Watson (SPRU, 2003) LCSW, Bath

LCSW, Bath RESIDENTIAL MICRO-GENERATION Electricity generation Micro-wind (Proven) Solar PV Heat generation Solar thermal Heat pumps (HeatKing): air & ground source Combinedheatandpower (Microgen) Micro-CHP: Internal combustion Stirling Fuel cell

SOME ESTIMATED MICRO-GENERATOR OUTPUTS LCSW, BathSource: Allen & Hammond (Energy, 2010) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 'Open' micro-wind 'Urban' micro-wind Solar PV Solar hot water MICRO-GENERATOR TYPE ANNUALOUTPUT(kWh) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ANNUALOUTPUT(GJ) Energy Exergy (1.7m rotor diameter, 600W at 12m/s) (15m2 , 2.1kWp m-Si) (2.8m2 flat plate) ELECTRICITY (WORK) OUTPUT TO HOUSE HOT WATER (HEAT) OUTPUT TO END USER

LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008 ENERGY PAYBACK PERIODS (PBP) FOR SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS

LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008) ENVIRONMENTAL LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT OF SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) UNITS

LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Proc. ICE - Energy, 2008) FINANCIAL APPRAISAL OF SELECTED MICRO-GENERATORS

BARRIERS TO MICRO-GENERATION Lack of information and awareness. Planning permission problems. Overcoming the cost barriers: ⇒ clean energy cash back for electricity – now largely addressed via the ‘feed-in tariffs (FiT) scheme; implemented in April 2010. ⇒ clean energy cash back for renewable heat – via the Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI). Expensive compared with conventional technology. Source: UK Energy Review and Microgeneration Strategy (2006); The UK Low Carbon Transition Plan (2009) LCSW, Bath

CHALLENGES TO A DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEM Need to maintain our reliable system (currently the reliability of the power network is around 98%; according to ofgem). Potential savings due to a reduced need for investment in large power stations cannot be captured until the UK has reliable capacity in small- scale plant – may take many years. Technology needed for truly distributed infrastructure, e.g., storage, is still emerging. High costs of the small-scale systems. LCSW, BathSource: Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)

LCSW, Bath ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINTS OF VARIOUS POWER SECTOR GENERATORS 0 50 100 150 200 250 Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Biofuel Other Natural flow hydro Wind Solar PV Fuel EnvironmentalFootprint(gha/GWh) Carbon Embodied Energy Transport Built Land Water Waste Source: Alderson et al. (Energy, 2012)

CONCLUDING REMARKS 1  Specification & analysis of transition pathways & branching points could inform actions needed & consensus building for a shared vision  Analysis shows implications of uncertainties, including  Future progress in different energy technologies  Role of ICTs to help facilitate change through a ‘smart grid’  Role of changes in actors’ habits, practices & wider social values  And how they might interact with technological change  Shows pathways with different/shifting roles for large & small government, market & civil society actors  & how they might lead to alternative visions & realities of a low- carbon society  Throws light on opportunities & challenges of a ‘more electric’ LCSW, BathSource: : Foxon et al. (TFSC, 2010); Hammond & Pearson, Energy Policy, 2013)

CONCLUDING REMARKS 2 An energy system with more highly distributed micro- generators could clearly help to reduce carbon emissions. Importance of network developments and smart metering systems to facilitate distributed energy generation. Need to ensure that all micro-generators are technologically and economically proven. These are new technologies and therefore need support – consequently incentives are important (e.g., FiT and the RHI). Such support mechanisms need to be applied consistently over time. The main barriers include lack of knowledge and awareness, capital costs, and planning issues. LCSW, BathSource: adapted from Allen et al. (Applied Energy, 2008)

LCSW, Bath The work presented here has been supported by the Research Councils’ Energy Programme (RCEP):  as part of the SUPERGEN ‘Highly Distributed Energy Futures’ (HiDEF) Consortium [under Grant EP/G031681/1];  the ‘Realising Transition Pathways’ (RTP) Consortium [under Grant EP/K005316/1];  and their predecessor grants. THANK YOU END OF THE PRESENTATION

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