Prices Up, Home Sales Down - The Real Estate Report February/March

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Information about Prices Up, Home Sales Down - The Real Estate Report February/March
Real Estate

Published on February 20, 2014

Author: AMSISanFrancisco

Source: slideshare.net

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The Real Estate Report February/March, local market trends San Francisco: "Prices Up, Home Sales Down" by AMSI's Real Estate Broker Robb Fleischer

Robb Fleischer JANUARY/FEBRUARY 2014 American Marketing Systems, Inc. 2800 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 (415) 447-2009 rfleischer@amsiemail.com http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb DRE #01403882 Inside This Issue > LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 > MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 > HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2 > FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 > CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3 > MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4 The Real Estate Report local market trends Trends at a Glance (Single-family Homes) Prices of both homes and condos made continued to be up, year-over-year, in January. The median price for homes was up 36.1% from last January. Single-family, re-sales home sales fell 16.1% in January. Condo/loft sales, on the other hand, rose 15%. The sales price to list price ratio for homes has been over 100% for twenty-two of the past twentythree months. It was 104.7% last month. This is an extraordinarily tough market for buyers. It's important to be calm and realistic. If you don't know what to do or where to begin, give me a call and let's discuss your situation and your options. $ 745,000 $1,355,128 $ 923,044 104.7% 102.9% 103.6% Day s on Market: 40 41 48 Jan 14 169 Dec 13 188 Jan 13 147 Median Price: $ 950,000 $ 750,000 $ 765,000 Av erage Price: $1,109,376 $1,030,846 $ 846,503 (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC) Condo Sales: Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.0% 102.9% 100.8% Day s on Market: 51 42 63 San Francisco Price Differences from January 2012 & Peak & Trough Hom es: detached YTD Peak % Trough % Peak Trough for single-family homes was up 0.4 of a point to 19.1. Pricing momentum for condos/lofts was flat at +13.4. 3-month 48% 1% 52% Jun-07 12-month PRICING MOMENTUM… 36% 5% 37% Apr-08 Mar-12 3-month 37% 7% 40% Jul-08 Jan-12 12-month 33% 11% 33% Aug-08 Jan-12 The median price of condos/lofts set a new all-time record in January at $950,000, a gain of 31.1% year-over-year. San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -20.0% 0 FMAM J J ASOND 0 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 -30.0% -40.0% Feb-12 Hom es: attached CONDO/LOFT STATISTICS -10.0% Jan 13 149 Sale/List Price Ratio: The sale price to list price ratio stayed over 100% for the twenty-third month in a row: 101%. This is down from the recent peak of 106.4% in June. for homes dropped 1.6 points to +1.5. Sales momentum for condos/lofts rose 1.1 points to +0.6. $ 954,500 Av erage Price: $1,256,020 Condo/loft sales rose 15%. SALES MOMENTUM… Dec 13 204 Home Sales: Prices Up, Home Sales Down JANUARY MARKET STATISTICS Jan 14 125 Median Price: $ 928,000 SAN FRANCISCO © 2014 rereport.com Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

The Real Estate Report MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK Jan 3, 2014 -- HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) -- found the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages declined by another seven basis points (0.07%) to land at 4.38%, its lowest level since the week ending November 22. The FRMI's 15year companion shed another five basis points (0.05%) of its own to slide to 3.53%. Popular FHAbacked 30-year FRMs retreated by seven basis points to land at at a flar 4.00% for the period, while the overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM declined by four hundredths of a percentage point (0.05%) to an attractive rate of 3.09%. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates 01-14 10-13 07-13 04-13 01-13 10-12 07-12 04-12 01-12 10-11 07-11 04-11 01-11 10-10 07-10 04-10 01-10 10-09 07-09 04-09 01-09 10-08 07-08 04-08 01-08 10-07 07-07 04-07 01-07 10-06 07-06 04-06 01-06 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% growth, mortgage rates have eased now for five straight weeks. The decline now totals about a quarter of a percentage point or so from where we began 2014, enough to trim the top off the 2013 rise and to take us back to November levels. Although a considerable drop, it's probably not enough to change the fortunes of homebuyers or refinancers, but is welcome, nonetheless. Even with plenty of economic difficulties in view, stock markets have found some footing of late, and interest rates have stopped declining for the most part. With investors moving funds to riskier propositions, underlying interest rates which Construction spending gained by just 0.1 percent in influence mortgages not only stopped declining but December. Despite wicked weather in some parts of have nudged higher over the last few days. Based on that, it would seem that the nice little fall in mortgage the country during the month, residential projects seemed rather immune to this, rising by 2.6 percent. rates is coming to an end, at least for now. We expect a little firming for rates next week, when a less This was sufficient to offset a 0.7 percent decline in commercial spending and a 2.3 percent drop in crowded calendar of reports will provide clues about public works outlays. Housing starts popped over the retail sales, industrial production, and consumer 1.1 million (annualized) mark in November, but eased sentiment. At the moment, we expect a rise of 3-5 to just about 1 million in December, and we'll have to basis points or thereabouts. wait a couple of weeks to see if the January report reveals a cooling pattern here as well. 8.0% Without a domestic economy putting up better numbers, and with plenty of concerns about global The chart above shows the National monthly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages as compiled by HSH.com. The average includes mortgages of all sizes, including conforming, "expanded conforming," and jumbo. San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) $1,500 350 $1,300 300 250 $1,100 200 $900 150 $700 100 $500 50 $300 0 0 FMAM J J ASOND 0 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 Ave Med © 2014 rereport.com Units January Sales Statistics (Single-family Homes) Prices Unit Yearly Change Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average San Francisco $ 928,000 $1,256,020 125 40 104.7% 24.6% 36.1% Monthly Change Sales Median Average -16.1% -2.8% -7.3% Sales -38.7% D1: Northw est $1,250,000 $1,796,000 11 48 101.2% 50.6% 18.8% 0.0% 2.0% 18.9% -38.9% D2: Central West $ 908,000 $ 909,614 21 43 108.8% 19.5% 13.9% -22.2% 9.4% -0.8% -44.7% D3: Southw est $ 687,750 $ 734,250 10 32 105.8% 11.8% 8.8% -23.1% -19.1% -17.9% -33.3% D4: Tw in Peaks $ 960,000 $1,068,574 17 46 111.8% 4.0% -13.1% 21.4% -15.8% -7.7% -50.0% D5: Central $1,655,000 $1,852,778 18 41 104.9% 31.2% 17.9% 38.5% -5.4% -4.6% -28.0% D6: Central North $1,910,000 $2,108,873 3 27 102.2% -29.1% -21.7% 200.0% 28.4% 34.5% 0.0% D7: North $3,320,000 $3,881,600 5 25 53.3% 66.0% 66.7% -13.2% -12.1% -61.5% D8: Northeast $4,400,000 $4,400,000 1 0 100.0% 276.1% 276.1% 0.0% 76.0% 69.2% -66.7% 95.4% D9: Central East $1,152,500 Page 2 $1,115,000 10 28 110.7% 35.7% 28.4% -52.4% 0.0% -7.2% -41.2% D10: Southeast $ 640,000 $ 620,749 29 44 106.5% 18.5% 17.8% -34.1% 8.0% 3.8% -23.7%

San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 0 FMAM J J ASOND 0 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 -10.0% 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 -20.0% -30.0% © 2014 rereport.com FORECLOSURE STATISTICS Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Francisco continued to drop. They were down 30.2% in December from November. Year-overyear, notices were down 56.5%. There were 30 notices in December. Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank. Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before sale, dropped 21.7% from November, and they were down 56.1% year-over-year. There were 36. There were 42 sales cancelled last month. Only three homes went back to the bank in December. There are currently 138 properties scheduled for sale. With the recent surge in prices, many of them will probably be cancelled. After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements. The total number of properties owned by the banks was down 42.7% year-over-year. The banks now own approximately 240 properties in the city. San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales (3-month moving average — $000's) $1,100 $1,000 $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 350 300 Table Definitions _______________ 250 Median Price 200 The price at which 50% of prices were higher and 50%were lower. 150 100 50 0 FMAM J J ASOND 0 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 Ave Med Average Price 0 Add all prices and divide by the number of sales. © 2014 rereport.com Units (Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) Prices Unit Yearly Change Monthly Change Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average San Francisco $ 950,000 $1,109,376 169 51 101.0% 24.2% 31.1% Sales Median Average 15.0% 26.7% 7.6% Sales -10.1% D1: Northw est $1,364,500 -55.6% D2: Central West $ - $1,357,250 4 $ 0 - 42 101.6% 113.6% 0 SP/LP Sales price to list price ratio or the price paid for the property divided by the asking price. January Sales Statistics 98.5% -50.0% 79.5% 51.8% 0.0% n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a DOI Days of Inventory, or how many days it would take to sell all the property for sale at the current rate of sales. D3: Southw est $ 401,000 $ 401,000 1 78 118.3% 28.5% 28.5% 0.0% -6.7% -26.6% -66.7% D4: Tw in Peaks $ 629,500 $ 631,333 6 46 16.9% 17.2% 200.0% 67.9% 68.4% 500.0% Pend Property under contract to sell that hasn’t closed escrow. 99.4% D5: Central $1,122,500 $1,122,917 24 36 105.7% 47.7% 59.0% 41.2% 32.1% 0.9% 60.0% D6: Central North $ 875,000 $ 780,163 17 68 104.7% 36.7% 16.8% 21.4% 39.1% 15.3% -37.0% D7: North $1,355,000 $1,595,342 19 71 95.3% 63.3% 64.2% 18.8% 23.2% 1.7% 18.8% Inven D8: Northeast $ 933,500 $1,314,184 38 51 99.8% 38.3% 85.7% 81.0% 9.2% -3.2% -7.3% D9: Central East $ 879,000 $ 965,395 59 48 102.4% 3.4% -4.4% -3.3% 10.7% 1.2% -9.2% D10: Southeast $ 445,000 $ 445,000 1 19 106.5% 29.7% 36.6% -66.7% -10.9% -10.4% -75.0% Number of properties actively for sale as of the last day of the month.

THE REAL ESTATE REPORT San Francisco Robb Fleischer American Marketing Systems, Inc. 2800 Van Ness Avenue San Francisco, CA 94109 Go online to see the full report with the district by district breakdown: HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 0 FMAM J J ASOND 0 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 -25.0 © 2014 rereport.com Sales Pricing San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 -10.0 -20.0 0 FMAM J J ASOND 0 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 FMAM J J ASOND 1 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 -30.0 -40.0 -50.0 Sales Pricing © 2014 rereport.com The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.

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